Rough end to a good season in Week 16 going 0 – 4 but overall a very good year and there is a chance to keep adding here in playoffs starting with the always fun Wildcard Weekend

 

2018 Reg Season: 42-32-1

Game 1: 6 Pt teaser. Ind +8 @ Hou & Sea +8 @ Dal

Using a 6 pt teaser for these two road teams to get both over the TD. The Colts and Texans are playing their 3rd game of the year and the first 2 were both one score games including an OT game. I like Indy to win here, they finished 8th in DVOA but 4th in weighted while the Texans finished 11th but 13th in weighted so Colts definitely playing better to close out year.

The Texans have not been as explosive on offense as they were to start the year, they certainly miss Will Fuller and now are without his replacement Demaryius Thomas. Home field is really important in playoffs but if Texans win this game, I don’t see them running away.

In the Seattle Dallas game, I am selling on the Cowboys. By DVOA Dallas is the worst team in playoffs at 21 and 19 in weighted. I don’t love the Seattle offense and think the Dallas defense is the best group in the game but I trust that Russell Wilson can do enough to win this game. In the end I think you have 2 underwhelming teams but with Seattle you get the better coach and quarterback.

Late Add: Game 2 Sea @ Dal Over 43

Bet% Over 65% Under 35%

This game features two very run heavy offenses that have very good overall defensive numbers which is why this is a low total but \i think both teams will go to the pass and have success in this game. Both defenses ended the year with worse weighted defensive numbers than overall, Dallas is 9th overall in defensive DVOA but 11th in Weighted and Seattle was 14th overall but 19th in weighted. So both defenses are playing a little worse as season ends.

I think Seattle will be forced to go to pass early, Dallas is 5th vs the run but 16th vs the pass, and with Russell Wilson playing some of the best football of the season and this being the healthiest the Seattle receivers have been, it will then force Dallas to open up as well. I see a final score of 27-24 or something like that