Always nice to start the season with a winning weekend. Week 1 offers a lot of value but it is easy to get caught expecting too much carryover from the previous season and I have to admit I was a little worried with the fact that our card was heavy on favorites. Thankfully the wins came in and for the most part we didn’t need to sweat them out making week 1 a success.
2016 Full Season: 56-40-3
Week 1 2017: 3-1
What Went Right:
Eagles DLine Dominates: In the week 1 picks post I wrote the single most important group in this game would be the Eagles defensive line, if they were able to get pressure on Cousins I thought that would mean the Eagles would get the win. Well that line delivered huge, they had 19.5 pressure plays (Sacks + QB Hits + TFL) forced 2 fumbles and scored the final TD to put the game away. Cousins struggled with the pressure all game and added 2 Ints to the lost fumbles. This was a game where the line had moved because of Sharp money and that money turned out to be on the right side.
SB Hangover was real: The Bears ended up covering by just a half point but the Falcons are actually very lucky that they didn’t get beat straight up in the game. The Bears had 2 drops in the endzone on their final drive and then fumbled on 4th down. The Falcons dominant offense from a year ago was sluggish in the opener, especially on the ground. Over the next few weeks we will find out if it was just a one week blip or if losing Kyle Shanahan has more long term effect.
No Luck for Indy: I wondered if the Colts minus Luck and Vontae Davis with Tolzein at QB might not be one of the worst rosters in the NFl and for 1 week they certainly looked it. The Rams were up 27-3 in this game at half, scored 2 defensive TDs and Tolzen finished with a QBR of 33.3. We will see how improved the Rams are and how much of this Goff performance carries over to the rest of the season but in terms of ths game the Colts got down early and just have no answer to get back into games. Something to look at for live betting or 2nd half betting.
What went Wrong
The Carson Palmer Redemption tour: I loved the Cardinals in this game and had Palmer on a number of DFS cards because this just seemed like the perfect spot for the Palmer comeback season to get underway. Unfortunately 2016 Palmer showed up and made a mess of things again. Palmer threw 3 interceptions including a pick six, David Johnson was injured and for the 9th time in 10 tries the Lions won a game they trailed entering the 4th Q.