It’s been a rough go here on this blog and for most sports books the last 5 weeks as favorites and heavy public plays have cashed at record levels. There are some things I would do differently but there is still time left to turn this season around and I like this week’s card a lot. Let’s Go.
Week 13: 1-3
Game 1: Sea @ Jax Under 20 1st Half
Bet% Over 51 Under 49 (Full game)
These are the 2 teams I have constantly bet for 1st half unders and this matchup seems perfect for a low scoring start. Seattle constantly starts slow in games especially on the road and in this game you have to thing the Jags front will get after the Seattle Offensive line. The Jags weakness on defense is the run and i expect that Seattle will try to start the game by seeing if they can have success there. On the flip side Seattle has been terrific vs the run since adding Sheldon Richardson but I can’t seethe Jags putting the game in Bortles hands until they have to. This feels like a 7-3 half.
Game 2: GB @ Cle +3
Bet% GB 70% Cle 30%
This line opened at 4 and has been bet down all the way to the key number of 3 even though 70% of bets are on the Packers. This will be the first game in Cleveland after Hugh Jackson somehow won his GOT standoff with Sashi Brown and took over the throne. If the Browns are going to win a game this year, its this one.
This is as healthy as the Browns have been in quite a while, Myles Garret was cleared and a full participant in practice this week and should be a force vs the Packers who have given up the 2nd most sacks this year. The Browns defense is #1 vs the run by DVOA and if the Packers can’t be efficient in the run game I can’t see them moving the ball here.
The Browns will have their best 2 WRs playing with Coleman and Josh Gordon, Gordon looked terrific last week for a player that hasn’t played for 2 years and I could see him have a big game here. Like the Browns to win straight up here.
Game 3: NY Giants +4 @ Dal
Bet% NYG 34% Dal 66%
Both these teams are trending the wrong way but I think we are going to get a 1 game ” we fired our Head Coach and GM that we hated and reinstated the starting QB who we like” bump here from the players on the Giants. It’s a divisional game and Eli will be playing with a chip on his shoulder against a team he and defense he knows very well. I expect a close game throughout and think both teams will be able to move the ball but this game just feels like the whole Giants team will be playing for Eli and to stick it to Macadoo. Great spot to get 4 here bu will also sprinkle on ML.
Game 4: Phi +1 @ LAR
Bet%: Phi 68% LAR 32%
I am an Eagles fan but somehow I have been on the other side of them 3 or 4 times and not on their side once yet. I love the spot and matchup here for the Eagles. The spot is a 2nd straight road game which isn’t great coming off of a big loss on SNF.
Well as far as the road game issue the Eagles have 2 big advantages here that you normally don’t get. First off because they played in Seattle last week the team stayed on the west coast and has been in LA all week so travel won’t be an issue. The 2nd advantage is that this game is looking like the 2nd straight LA takeover by Eagles fans. When the Eagles played the Chargers earlier in the year, the crowd was decidedly pro Eagles as Philly fans came in droves and took over the stadium. Reports are that the same thing is happening again this week and the fact that Sean Mcvay was working on silent counts for the offense this week gives proof that this will sound very much like an Eagles home game.
As for the matchups, the Eagles offense works best when they can establish the run and they should be able to do that against the Rams defense which is 21st in DVOA vs the run. On the flip side the Rams offense needs Todd Gurley to be the engine and then that allows the rest of the Rams weapons to get more opportunities. The Eagles run defense has been a strength, giving up just 3.5 yards per rush att and overall they are 3rd in run defense DVOA. The Eagles need this game to maintain the #1 seed and I like Wentz to play big here vs the QB picked ahead of him.
Game 5: Ten @ Arz +3
Bet% Ten 36% Arz 64%
I was on the Cardinals in what seemed like a great spot last week but 2 early Blaine Gabbert interceptions put the Cards behind the 8 ball and a cover was never really close after that. That could certainly happen again this week but I do not think the Titans have the offense to make the Cards pay the way the Rams did last week.
This really is a fade against the team I think is the worst 8-4 team in the league and one of the worst playoff teams this year. Everything for the Titans is a struggle, they are 8-4 and somehow -16 in point differential. By comparison the Jags at 8-4 are +121, Seattle at 8-4 is +68 and the Panthers are +31. The Titans are the only team in the NFL with a winning record and negative point differential. I like Arizona to bounce back here and upset the Titans.