After a 2 week hiatus I was able to spend some time looking at this weeks card and made some bets though there wont be much his week for write-ups. November was a historic month for favorites covering and as a result the dogs keep getting more value, at some point that’s going to matter.
Game 1: NE @ Buf +9
Bet% NE 80% Buf 20%
This just feels like too many points on the road vs a team that is still in the playoff hunt. I expect the home crowd to be a factor in his game and these big divisional numbers on the road have traditionally been the place that the Pats don’t cover.
Game 2: Min @ Atl -2.5
Bet% Min 56% Atl 44%
Atlanta seems to have figured out some of their issues on offense, they never had issues moving the ball as they have been in the top 3 all year in yards per play but over the last 3 weeks they have begun converting those yards to points. The Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFC but getting a hot Atlanta team at home under a FG is too good to pass up.
Game 3: LA Rams @ Ari +7
Bet% LAR 72% Ari 28%
This is my fav bet of he week and feels like a total sandwich spot for the Rams. Last week vs the Saints they won a game that really legitimised them in the NFC. Next week the Rams play the Eagles who are not only #1 in the conference but have the #2 pick from the 2016 draft at QB who will come to LA and play vs the #1 pick Goff. last week the Rams caught a break playing vs the Saints minus both their starting corners, because of that I think we get some extra value here. This is also a revenge spot for the cardinals who were drubbed by the Rams in the game that Palmer was hurt in.
Game 4: SF +3.5 @ Chi
Bet% SF 56% Chi 44%
This is simply a bet on Jimmy Garapolo and the fact that I think there is a very good chance he outplays Trubisky even though he has only been at SF a couple of weeks. The 49ers went through a stretch early in the year where they lost 3 or games in a row by FG or under. With an upgrade at QB I can’t see them not playing the Bears tight here unless the Bears get scored from their special teams or defense.