After struggling the last 2 weeks, we were able to get over the hump this week and have a big winning week and get back over 60% on the season. The Early numbers I got didn’t really make a big difference as both the Steelers and Raiders won outright but still I felt a lot better during those games, especially early with the tickets I had. Most of the wins were pretty comfortable, a lot of direct hits.

Week 14:   5-2

2015 ATS: 50-33-2

Week 14 results

What Went Right

• Offenses I Trust: The Steelers, Giants and Jags are all offenses I feel comfortable betting on that they can outscore their problems vs equal level of competition.

For the Steelers, I believe they are the #1 offense in the NFL and really believe against almost anyone they are going to have the opportunity to outscore their issues on defense.  This week in a game they had to have vs a team that wasn’t in the same desperate state , getting 3 points was more than enough to put me on the side of the Steelers. Pittsburgh was obviously helped by the Andy Daulton injury and we don’t know how that game would have turned out had he played the whole game but I still think the Steelers offense would have done enough to win.

The Giants are a little like the Steelers but at the mid level. While I think the Steelers can outscore their problems vs the top teams, for the Giants I generally feel good that they can outscore their issues vs the mid level teams, the teams around .500. That’s what we saw this week vs the Dolphins, Miami was able to move the ball and put up points against the struggling NYG defense but in the end just couldn’t sustain the same level of offensive efficiency the Giants could.

At the lowest levels of the league, I see the Jaguars in the same was as the teams above, when they play teams in the bottom 3^rd of the league I generally think they can outscore their issues. This week they had an awful 1^st half and till managed 380 yards of offense while scoring 42 in the 2^nd half.

• Khalil Mack- 7 tackles, 5 Sacks, 7 QB Hits. Good Lord

Beyond Mack going all Derrick Thomas, the other thing that really stood out in the Oak-Den game is just how much trouble the Broncs are having scoring right now. In the last 2 games the Broncos have scored 1 TD on offense and if you take out the Patriots game, the Broncos are averaging 15.3 points per game in the other 3 games Osweiller has started. The reason I say take the Patriots game out is that the weather/field conditions created some large scoring plays that haven’t been there in the other games. The Broncos are a stone cold under team as currently constructed.

What Went Wrong

• For the second straight week (Chicago last week), I bet on a a .500ish team that hasn’t been a big favorite all year or for a number of years and they not only didn’t cover the number but lost straight up. This is something I will look at more in the off season but teams who go from being consistently dogs or short favs to a big fav (TD or close) how do they react. The Bucs were 6 point favorites at the close, they had only been a favorite of 3 points (in the opener) and had only been favored 2 other games both times by 1.

 

• I was Wrong on my Eagles. Sort Of. The Eagles Bills game actually went much he same way I thought it would, the Bills out gained the Eagles, Sammy Watkins made some very big plays but the Eagles won this game because they won the turnover battle. The Bills had a game changing fumble on a punt return after getting a 3 and out from Philly deep in their end that felt like a 10 point swing.