Last week’s 1-6 finish too a lot out of me and I had a very hard time getting back into it this week. Regardless of how well you do overall it’s hard not to be shaken by a week where everything go’s wrong but in the end that’s the NFL. So many games come down to the last few positions and every once in a while you are going to have stretch where they all work out like week 11 or none go your way like Week 12. The season is still a plus and week 13 offers an opportunity to make things right again.
2015 Season ATS: 42-28-2
Game 1: Sea -2 @ Min
Bet% Sea 61% Min 39%
It seems every week my numbers have the Vikings over rated and yet they are 9-2 ATS which means that y record against them is obviously a loser. Clearly my numbers have missed something with Minnesota but this week I am taking one last shot against them hoping that Seattle can do what the Packers did 2 weeks which is win in Minnesota.
Seattle is # 4 in DVOA overall and in offense, they are averaging 5.9 yard per play on the season (4th) but have been much better than that over the last month. Russell Wilson has an avg passer rating of 123.2 over his last 3 games and while the Vikings are 7th in yards per passing att Wilson and the offense should be able to continue their success.
The Vikings continue to rely heavily on their #1 run game, they are averaging 4.9 yards per rush and 6.1 over their last 3 games. the Pass game has continued to struggle, 24th in avg passer rating and 29th n yards per pass att.
The Seahawks pass defense has been an issue the last month as both Ben Rothlisberger and Carson Palmer were able to have huge games vs Seattle. Those are 2 of the top 4 pass offenses in the league, much better than the Vikings. Seattle has continued to play the run well, giving up 3.7 yards per rush (7th overall) so if they can slow Adrian Peterson down and put the game in Bridgewater’s hands, I don’t expect the Vikings will be able to keep up.
Game 2: Hou +3.5 @ Buf
Bet% Hou 65% Buf 35%
Houston has the hottest rising defense in the league, going into week 8 the Texans were 26th in DVOA, this week they are ranked 8th. Over the last 3 weeks, the Texans have held the opposition to a passer rating of 58.6, 4.9 yards per pass att 3.8 yards per rush and an amazing 9.7 points per game.
The Bills when healthy have been a very productive offense, 9th in offensive DVOA so they should be able to have some success vs the Texans red hot defense but one place they have continued to struggle is their offensive line. The Bills are getting sacked on a little over 8% of pass plays and giving up 13.5 pressure plays per game (23rd overall). The Texans have been able to generate a lot of pressure the last few weeks including 18 pressure plays last week and the 7th best sack percentage on the season.
While the Texans defense has been red hot the Bills defense has not. The bills have given up 5.5 yards per play this season but 6.1 per play over there last 3 games and 7 yards per pass so the Texans should be able to move the ball enough in this game to stay close and have a shot to win. The total in his game 42 so obviously the score is expected to be low, with that, getting the hook with +3.5 and a defense dominating over the last 3 weeks feels too good to pass up.
Game 3: Atl @ TB Under 46
Bet% Over 59% TB 41%
This is a game where we are basically hoping that the recent trends by these teams continue. The Falcons got off to a 5-0 start and their offense led the way. In their last 5 games the Falcons are 1-4 and in their last 6 games the Falcons have scored 21 pts or less. Despite being viewed as an offensive team, Atlanta has had 7 of their 11 games go under this season.
TB has also had issues scoring in the last month outside of the explosion in Philadelphia 2 weeks again when they scored 45. The Eagles season has completely come off the rail so I think its fair to treat that game as an outlier in the Bucs season. In their last 5 games, TB has scored 20 or fewer in 3 of the games including games where they scored 10 vs Dallas and 12 last vs the Colts.
Both these pass games have been mediocre this season, ranking 19th and 22nd in avg passer rating and the falcons pass defense has been very good ranking 7th overall in opp avg passer rating 82.8 and both teams have been great vs he pass in their last 3 games with avg opp ratings of 77.3 (Atl) and 79.2 (TB).
Both these teams will want to establish the run as they have all year but again both run defenses have been good, TB is giving up only 3.5 yards per rush this season and the Falcons have given up 3.7.
Game 4: Den @ SD Under 44
Bet% Over 55% Under 43%
The Broncos bring a top 3 defense to San Diego to play a very limited and one dimensional Chargers offense. Denver is the #1 DVOA defense and #27 offense so a solid under team. I think because of last week’s game vs the Patriots the expectations of what this offense is capable of are being overstated as Denver was greatly helped by the weather conditions and slick field that allowed a number of big runs. Denver has averaged 4.1 yards per rush on the season but last week averaged 5.6 yards because of a couple of long runs by CJ Anderson.
The Chargers are extremely shorthanded on offense after losing Keenan Allen and Floyd from their receiving corps but still have to rely on Rivers and the passing game because they are averaging only .4 yards per rush this season (30th). The Broncos should have no problem limiting the Chargers in a similar fashion to what the Chiefs did in Week 11.
Game 5: 6Pt: Teaser – Chi -1 & Pit -1.5
Bet% SF 34% Chi 66%, Ind 49% Pit 51%
Obviously a super square teaser but I really do like both home favorites here and think they will most likely cover the numbers but rather than risk it, I will use them in the teaser.
Chicago has quietly been one of the most improving teams over the last 5 weeks, through 7 weeks they were 30th in DVOA now they rank 14th. The 49ers are dead last in DVOA and are one of the worst road teams in the league because their defense which play well at home, falls off the rails on the road. The 49ers give up a very respectable 5.2 yards per play at home but on the road that number jumps up to 6.9, opponents passer rating at home is 85.2 but on the road it jumps to 121.6 and overall the 49ers are giving up 15.8 points per game at home but 35.2 on the road.
The Steelers have the best offense in the NFL and I just do not think the Colts can keep up. The Colts have no run game, last week they averaged 1 yard per rush and they are averaging just 3.6 yards/rush on season the season so all of the pressure will be on the shoulders of 40 year old Matt Hasselback. So far Hasselback has been very good but the level of opposition has been very different, Hasselback has played, Jax, Hou, Atl and TB none of those teams have atop 10 offense that Hasselback had to keep up with.
Game 6: Adding SF @ Chi -6.5
Same write up as above, with the game dropping below a TD, I am going to use it on its own as well.