Disaster. Pure Disaster. It’s taken my basically the whole week to get over it but really I’m still not. Following the perfect week last week, this week nearly everything everything went the wrong way.

Week 12:  1- 6

2015 ATS:   42-28-2

Week 12 Results:

What Went Right:

• The Bears- that’s it. Just the Bears. +9 was definitely too much and the Bears were in the game the whole way and ended up winning straight up. Bears are a good competitive team

What Went Wrong:Everything, Everything went wrong.

• The Eagles defense: I thought the would bounce back after their disastrous performance vs TB but there were too many bad signs I should have listened to. There was nothing good coming out of Philly, infighting, the players don;t trust the coach or each other. Expecting a bounce back from a team like that was just dumb and the under was basically over at half.
• Eli and Ryan. 2 first overall pick QBs that have had a lot of success but also caused a lot of heartbreak, killed my bets this week with interceptions. In the NYG- Was over, the Giants put up 330 yards of offense but 3 interceptions killed any chance at the over. In Atlanta Matt Ryan was in position to to give his team the lead in the 4th quarter when he threw a interception in the endzone, 1 of 3 he would throw in that game and kill any chance of the win.
• Plinko Death late: In both the Seattle- Pit game and the NE Den games I was in position to win the bet with a couple of minutes left in the game. The Steelers going for 3 late and giving the ball back to Seattle was costly as Seattle scored a 60 yd TD to ice the game and the cover with less than 2 minutes to go. In Denver, the Broncos scored to take take a 3 pt lead late vs the Patriots but left too much time and NE came back with a minute left and tied the game and sent it to OT. For he purposes of my bet, that FG ensured the game would go over 49 in OT.

What Did we Learn:

Gambling is hard and things can turn quickly.

Beyond that,betting late in the season is a little different than earlier in the season. One of the big things a lot of sharp people bet is that a team will bounce back after a really bad performance. Late in the season we have some more things that we have to take into account and one of them is the idea that with rumours of a coach leaving or getting fired we often see teams basically fall apart late. While week 12 is a little early for that the dysfunction in Philadelphia on the heals of their embarrassing loss to TB made them a very volatile team and one I should have laid off.