After a roller coaster couple of weeks of extreme highs and then lows, Week 13 brought the dreaded .500 week which isn’t really break even because we lose the juice. The Breakdown of games was actually pretty good as I was right on 4 games, Seattle, the 2 unders and the Steelers and wrong on just 2 Chicago and Houston. Unfortunately I had Chicago in 2 bets, using it in the teaser with Pittsburgh and therefore we end up even on the week, nothing to celebrate.
Week 13: 3-3
2015 ATS: 45-31-2
Week 13 Results
What Went Right.
Seattle is for Real: Quietly Seattle had jumped to #4 in overall DVOA and #1 in Weighted DVOA despite their record being just 6-5 going into their game in Minnesota. I almost stayed off this game because I have been burned by betting against the Vikings a number of times but I had this matchup as the #5 offense vs the #19 and didn’t think Bridgewater would be able to keep up and that is exactly how it played out. Very happy about my Seattle futures, I think they are the #2 team in the NFC jut edging the Cards.
2-0 on Unders: In TB-ATL, both teams continued their under trends, the TB defense was fantastic holding the Falcons to under 5 yards per play and while TB moved the ball well and scored in the redzone they also had a couple of turnovers that kept them from having a really big game on offense. As expected TB focused on the run, rushing 37 times which kept the clock moving and helped shorten the game.
Den-SD wasn’t close, neither team managed 300 yards of offense and 7 of the total 20 points in the game came from a return TD. Denver continue to be the best under team in the league with a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense even with improved play at QB. San Diego finished with just a FG for the second time in 3 weeks, against top 10 defenses they just cannot muster any offense.
What Went Wrong
The Bears: In hindsight, it was wrong to trust the Bears as such a large favorite, it’s a position they have not been in all year and covering a TD is not something we expect many 5-6 teams to do. The fact that they got 70% of bets in that position should have been a red flag as well.
Early Week 14 Bets
There were a lot of games I liked early in the week and I bet because the numbers were moving and I wanted to get in. I may go end up not keeping all of these after further review (Especially Det) but as of Thursday Night, these were the games I bet.
NE-Hou Under 45