For Week 16 I really didn’t get a lot of time to break the games early and wanted to keep the number of tickets down for that reason and the fact that late in the season we get a lot of factors impacting games beyond the numbers. that being said we still have a decent sized card, with a losing play on TNF, I went heavy on dogs this week because 1) I think their is some real value and 2), last week was one of the worst of the year for the books and usually we see a big comeback the next week. Hopefully a couple of late Christmas presents with some winners.
Week 15: 4-0
Season ATS: 54-33-2
Game 2: Cle +12 @ KC
Bet% Cle 27% KC 73%
KC is a double digit favourite again and this is a team that offensively doesn’t fit the profile of a team that week after week can cover numbers of this size. The Browns played in Seattle a couple of weeks ago and faced a number this big and had an opportunity to cover. the Chiefs will be looking ahead to the playoffs so I don’t expect them to keep the pedal to the metal for 60 minutes.
Game 3: Car @ Atl +7
Bet% Car 70% Atl 30%
The Falcons have been a disaster since their 6-0 start but they did get a win last week so at least there’s that. This really a bet because 1 I think the line is just too inflated here with the full TD, it essentially makes that Panthers 10 points better even without Jonathon Stewart. Secondly as they get closer and closer to 16-0 I thinkthe pressure ramps up and there is also the balance of making sure your team is healthy for the playoffs. I cashed with the Giants vs Panthers last week and will try again with Atlanta. Also sprinkle a little on the ML.
Game 4: Stl +12 @ Sea
Bet% Stl 38% Sea 62%
I think Seattle is probably the best team in the league but again id their motivation to play all out here for 60 minutes or will tere be some balancing to ensure the team is in the best shape possible for the playoffs. Doug Baldwin has been one of the hottest receivers in the league but was banged up all week, Im not sure we see him used as usual.
The Rams always play Seattle tough, and this line is basically the same line we saw with the Browns 2 weeks ago, the Rams are much better than Cleveland and beat Seattle straight up already this year. Ill take the double digit points.
Game 5: Chi @ TB -3
Bet% Chi 42% TB 58%
This line has these teams as even but my rankings have TB 8 slots better so this is just a value play. Neither team has had any play-off aspirations so we don’t have let down/spoiler/must win narratives in this one. TB is a young team on the come up, this is a good spot to play well at home against an inferior team.
Game 6: Cin @ Den -3 (-120)
Bet% Cin 29% Den 71%
Last week AJ Mccaron was able to win his first career start vs the 49ers and overall he looked pretty good in the process passing for 7 yards per pass and a passer rating of 115.6. What is interesting is that most of his good play was in the first half when the Bengals scored 21 of their 24 points. Overall the offense was not very efficient averaging just 4 yards per play and the run game was held to 1.9 yards per attempt. All this was against the 25th best defense in SF.
This week Mccaron faces the #1 defense in the NFL, if the Broncos focus on the run game the same as the 49ers I do not think Mccaron will be able to carry the offense vs Denver’s pass defense the way he did last week.
With KC winning again Denver needs to win this game to stay ahead and ensure their spot in the playoffs, I expect the defense to carry them and maybe creating some turnovers which should allow them to cover the FG+