Week 11 Picks

LW: 2-5-1

2020- 26-34-1

TNF: Ari @ Sea -3

Last week I had planned to bet the Rams all week and ended up taking it off the card right at the end because that is just how this 2020 season has gone for me but the reason I liked them was that Seattle had just been criss crossing all over the country. This week they are back home after playing in LA, coming off of 3 straight losses, this is exactly the type of spot you want to back Russell Wilson.

Arizona on the other hand is coming off of a miracle win against the Bills after losing in Miami the week previous. These 2 teams played 2 weeks ago and the Seahawks were 3.5 pt favs in Arizona, now they are smaller favs at home. These 2 teams are pretty closely matched up but I think we are getting Seattle at their lowest spot we have had all year, home teams traditionally have done well at home and I think we see that again this week.

Game 2: 2 Team Teaser: GB +8.5 @ Ind & NE @ Hou + 8.5

The Packers are coming off of a very tough performance vs the Jags last week but weather played a major factor in that game and as a result I think this line is bigger than it should be. In this game the Packers will be bringing their #2 offense indoors on the turf and they will be fully healthy with all 3 WRs healthy, Aaron Jones back and David Bakhtiari back to 100%. The COlts are 4th in defensive DVOA and held up well vs the #3 Titans but the Titans offense has been on a slide and has not been anywhere near as explosive as GB. I think Packers have good shot of winning this game outright but taking them through the 3 and 7 is too good to pass up.

Adding Houston to this teaser is just taking advantage of a bad number. The Patriots should not be favored, last week they won straight up as 7 point dogs vs the Ravens in a game that had extreme weather and basically everything went wrong for Baltimore. As awful as this season has been for Houston they still have the best unit in this game with their offense and should not be 2 point dogs. Again getting chance to take them through the 3 and 7 too good to pass up.

Game 3: 2 team 6 point teaser: Phi +8.5 @ Cle & Pit -4.5 @ Jax

It’s hard to put money on the Eagles after last week but it is clear that money has come in on the Eagles because this line has moved from 3.5 to 2.5, moving through the key number of 3. Last week I liked Eagles partly because their offensive line was finally getting healthy and then at kickoff it was announced that both expected starters at guard were out. This week the Eagles should have that offensive line we expected and generally this team has bounced back after really bad games under Doug Pederson. We saw that in the SF game in week 3 and I can see it again here.

I will likely be taking the Steelers side as this line should be closer to 13 than 10. The Jags were in it last week vs the Packers but got lucky with the weather and really the score didn’t reflect the play. The Packers outgained the Jags 395 to 260, GB averaged 9 yards per pass and if it wasn’t for a big special teams TD the Packers would have won by double digits even in those terrible conditions. The Steelers are better than the Packers and the conditions should be much better than last week, I don’t see how the Jags keep this close. While not as valuable teasing through 7 and 3, teasing through 10 and 7.

Game 4: Mia @ Den Under 46

Miami is averaging 30 ppg over the last 3 since Tua took over at QB and I think that is why this total is as high it is. Those scores have been greatly enhanced by 2 defensive TDs and a score set up by a blocked punt last week deep in Chargers territory. while I think the Dolphins offense is being overrated their defense deserves all of the credit they are getting. Now up to 13th in DVOA the Miami defense has been full marks for their recent winning streak and I expect them to be dominant this week vs the Bronco’s last placed offense. The Broncos after the 4 interception game by Drew Lock is probably coming in with a much more conservative game plan so I can see a slowed down pace and lot’s of running.

Game 5: Dal +7 @ Min

Bet% 48% 52%

I am following the money a bit here, this game opened up at 9 and even though tickets have been split basically 50/50 this game has dropped all the way to 7. Dallas is coming off of a bye and getting Andy Daulton back so this seems like a very good spot for Dallas to be competitive. Dallas played their best game since the Prescott injury before the bye vs the Steelers and the hope here is that coming out of the bye they again come with a game plan that takes some risks and the defense improves at least to the point that it is not just bleeding big plays.

The Vikings have been better the last 3 weeks with all 3 games in the division, maybe playing their first game out of the NFC North in a month creates a bit of a down spot for them. While it’s easy to feel like they have turned the corner it is important to remember that just 3 weeks ago they were blown out by Atlanta 40-23.

Game 6: KC -7 @ LV

Bet% KC 59% LV 41%

This is the chalk play of the week. There is the obvious narratives that will come up with Andy Reid after a bye and the revenge factor after the Raiders gave KC their first and only loss of the year. I like KC because this Raiders defense which is in the bottom 3rd has been once again impacted by Covid protocols and have not been able to practice. Maybe you can get away with that situation against some teams but I don’t see how they hold up against KC. Oakland also has some big injuries on defense, they will be without Cleland ferrell who is one of 4 defensive lineman that are questionable this week.

Game 7 & 8: Pit -6.5 1H and Pit -10 full game @ Jac

I made the case above in the teaser of why I think the Jags game last week was more one sided than the score indicated and as a result this line is shorter than it should be. But to take it a step further, Jake Luton has played 2 games the first against Houston who is a bottom 5 defense and last week vs the packers who are league average but they were missing starters in the secondary. The Steelers defense is a major step up for the rookie back up QB and I don’t see how he survives this game without a couple of turnovers. I see the Steelers getting their work done early in this game with Thanksgiving and the Ravens on deck on Thursday so I am betting them both first half and full game.

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