Game 1: 2 Team Teaser GB -1.5 @ SF & Hou -1 @ Jac
Didn’t get a chance to post this before the TNF game but used GB in a teaser with Houston. The 49ers were so ravaged with injuries and with GB coming off of a bad loss this seemed like a spot where it was a good enough bet to expect them to just win. Money did come in on SF and Shanahan has owed the Packers but there was just too many pieces missing from that offense.
The Texans are in a similar position as the Packers. On the road playing a team missing their starting QB. The Jags have looked every part of being a bottom 3 team after that surprise week 1 win. The Texans are too far gone to make a run for the playoffs but a lot of their struggles this year are due to an impossibly difficult schedule. The Texans have played the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Packers who rank #2, #3, #4 and #8 in DVOA. In their first meeting with the Jags, Houston won 30-14 I don;t see them losing here to a QB named Luton.
Game 2: Chi +6.5 (Waiting to see if a 7 shows up) @ Ten
Bet% Chi 50% Ten 50%
The Titans are a team that I think continues to be over rated by the market, I think based mostly on last years performance and wins early this year over poor competition. The Titans are 4-2, their first 3 wins early came against the Bronco’s, Vikings and Jags and were by a combined 6 points. Then after an impressive win vs the Bills, they won a miracle OT game vs the Texans and then lost to the Steelers and Bengals. That is not the type of team that should be favored by a TD against a Bears team that as flawed as they are on offense is still a top 10 defense.
The Bears are probably as equally undeserving of their 5-3 record as the Titans are of their 5-2 record but the Bears have not been getting priced as an top tier team by oddsmakers the way Tennessee has. The Bears have not been great on offense but I do see this game being a bit of a get right spot for Nick Foles.
Game 3: 2 team Teaser NYG +8.5 @ Was & Mia +10.5 @ Ari
The Giants have played tough the last few weeks and easily could have won in Philly and on MNF vs TB. Washington has been equally competitive the last few weeks and have been getting especially good performances from their defense. To e this game should have just been a pick, I don’t see how you can make a case that either team is 2 or 3 points better but at +2.5 it makes the Giants the perfect teaser candidate as we can take them through the 3 and 7 and then add to it that this is one of the lowest totals on the board and it is a no brainer play.
Miami is actually rated higher in DVOA than the Cardinals although the 21st rated offense is due to Ryan Fitzpatrick and until we see Tua play at a simlar level we have to downgrade them on offense. Where we don’t have to downgrade is on defense, Miami is ranked 11th overall though 32 vs the run. The Cardinals have struggled against good defenses this year and I think we get a better game out of Tua so taking his game through the 7 and 10 makes the Dolphins very attractive in this teaser.
Game 4: Car +10.5 @ KC
Bet% Car 42% KC 68%
It’s never fun betting against the Chiefs but this feels like a bit of a down spot of the schedule for the Chiefs and the Panthers are good enough to stick around in this game if given the opportunity. The Chiefs have been playing easy, meaningless games for about a month now, they are coming off of an easy win vs the Jets and the week previous they covered double digits vs the Broncos but got a KO return TD and an interception return TD to give them the ATS win. Next week the Chiefs are going into a bye, we know Andy Reid is great out of byes and they are playing the Raiders who beat them a few weeks ago. I don’t think the Chiefs are looking ahead to the Raiders but I can see them looking past this game to a well deserved bye week.
The Panthers are going to get Christian McCaffrey back and while I think they have proven over the last 6 weeks that it is better for an offense to be more diverse and built around the pass than a star RB, in this game McCaffrey is coming back just in time. The Chiefs have become a very good pass defense, 7th in DVOA but against the pass they are 28th which sets up perfect for the Panthers and the return of McCaffrey.
Game 5: Oak @ LAC over 52
Bet% Over 70% Under 30%
Game 6: Oak @ LAC pk
Bet% Oak 57% LAC 43%
It’s not often I have a bet on the side and total of one game but that is the case here with Chargers and Raiders. First on the over, I think both offenses are going to have good matchups and be able to score in this game. Las Vegas is 13th in DVOA on offense and while it looks like Josh Jacobs will be out this week, they are getting back a couple of their starting linemen and also getting WR Bryan Edwards back. I like not having the option to just hand the ball off to Jacobs here, it forces the Raiders to play up in pace and because I see the Chargers scoring and getting out early, the Raiders are going to have to score to keep up.
The Chargers have become one of the fastest pace teams with Herbert at QB, they are 5th fastest in neutral game situations since Justin Herbert took over and against this #31 DVOA defense I see no reason they shouldn’t have a lot of success in this game.
As for the Chargers side, I really think we are getting a bargain because of the way the game ended last week in Denver. For the 3rd time in 4 weeks the Chargers blew a 2 score game and ended up losing straight up , obviously blowing ig leads is less than ideal but I think there is more to take out of the fact that they keep getting out to those leads rather than the fact that they have let teams get back. I think in this case we are getting the Chargers low and selling the Raiders high after their win in Cleveland.
Game 7: NO @ TB -4
Bet% NO 51% TB 49%
The SNF game the marquee game of the week and I do believe it offers some nice value on the favorite which is not usually the case. In some ways, this game reminds me of the 49ers- Seattle game last week, in that the square side which is the fav is the right side because it is a couple of points cheap. The Saints have not been the same Saints team we are used to this year because their defense is no where near the level it has been at in previous years. The Saints are giving up 28 points per game this year and haven’t played an especially difficult schedule with games vs the Bears, Panthers and Chargers in the last month.
The Bucs offense should get a boost from the addition of Antonio Brown to an offense that is already 5th in DVOA. The Bucs are the #1 DVOA team overall and the only team in the top 6 on offense and defense ( #1 DVOA) and I think are being undervalued in the market. The Saints may get Michael Thomas back in this game but I don’t think you can count on him to be a difference maker in this game as he was only a limited participant in practice this week