Week 12 – Thanksgiving

2015 ATS: 41-22-2 

Week 11: 6-0

Game 1 Phi @ Det Under 47

The 26th and 28th DVOA offenses in this game and I expect the Eagles defense to have a big bounce back after last week’s debacle. The Lions are averaging 15.8 points per game over their last 3 and with the 30th ranked run game won’t be able to take advantage of the Eagles weakened LB group the same way TB did last week.

The Lions defense has been much better the last  couple of weeks holding both Oak and GB under 20. The Eagles offense is just devoid of big play makers and I think will need to grind out points.

Game 2 Chi+9  @ GB

Bet% Chi 36% GB 64

I was on GB last week and bet against the Bears and even though I won both bets I never felt really comfortable in either game. This just feels like too many points for the Packers to be giving and I think the fact that this is the last game on Thanksgiving is a big reason why as the books are shading this line up because they know betters will be on the favourite to either salvage a bad day early or double up on a good one.

The Packers broke their 3 game losing streak and out up 30 points but the pass game still didn’t look right. Rodgers went just 16 for 34 for 212 yards. he did pass for 2 TDs with 0 Ints but overall not a very efficient game and not exactly a sign that the offense has fully righted itself in fact it wasn’t that far off of what we have seen over the last month.

The Bears last week played the #1 defense in football the Denver Broncos and lost a tough one 18-16 where they had a 2 point conversion attempt to tie the game.6 of the last 7 Bears games have been decided by 3 points or less, they only one that wasn’t was a 37- 13 win 2 weeks vs the Rams.

John Fox has made the Bears competitive week in week out so i don’t put a lot of stock into the historical Packers-Bears record, this Bears team plays very hard and their defense has been getting better and better as the season goes on.

To cover a big number you usually need to be efficient in the passing game because that’s where points come and when you look at these 2 teams in the passing game over the last 3 weeks, the numbers may surprise

GB Chi

The Bears should be able to stay close and maybe even have a shot late for the upset.

 

 

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