It’s funny how these things go, I struggled most of the week with the games on the week 11 card. The schedule was full of pick’ems and short spreads and I found myself going back and forth on a bunch of the games until finally settling on the picks. And then the games started and it turned into a glorious glorious Sunday where being good and lucky intertwined for a magical Day. 6 – 0! Perfect
Week 11: 6 -0
2015 ATS: 41-22-2
Week 11 Results
What Went Right: EVERYTHING
- The Upsets: Indy @ Atl: A classic ‘the best team doesn’t always win in the NFL” game. Falcons led through the first 3 quarters and had numerous chances to put the game away but couldn’t. The Colts hung around in a turnover filled game and got a pick 6 late to tie the game and then win on a FG.. Falcons continue to struggle vs bad to mediocre teams losing 4 of their last 5 games to the Colts, 49ers, Bucs and Saints.
- The TB Philly game was a late add once the line went to 7. I struggled with it all week because it just felt too easy to take the Bucs even as 6 point dogs. What had the Eagles shown to be favored by that many points? I didn’t get it, what was I missing? Like I said the previous week vs Miami, the Eagles are capable of losing to any team in the league but here they didn’t just lose but got destroyed. Jameis Winston passed for 5 Tds, Doug Martin ran for 235 yards and the Eagles had 4 turnovers.
- Short Road Favs Den & GB: Usually short road favorites are a dangerous bet but both these teams came in on losing streaks and badly needed wins so I took the risk.
- The Broncos win was a very close one, they had opportunities to extend the lead but a failed 4 and 1 deep in Bears territory kept the Bears within 1 score and gave them an opportunity late to tie the game on a 2 pt. I felt very lucky to get this cover and came away very impressed by the Bears who I will look to back the rest of the way.
- The Packers/ Vikings game was essentially for the division and a game that the Packers had to have. I thought the Packers struggles on offense had been a little overplayed off the bad Lions loss and while Rodgers wasn’t his MVP self, the combo of Rodgers and Lacy did enough to get the Packers a lead. The Vikings offensive line really struggled giving up 24 pressure plays (S, QB hits, TFL) by far highest total in week 11. I will look to fade the Vikings in games where the opposition can get
- The Panthers Continue to be amazing- The first quarter of this game looked exactly how big upsets look, Wash was getting outplayed but got 2 huge plays for TDs, a 56 yard TD to Desean Jackson less than a minute after the panthers scored the opening TD and then a 99 yard kick off return TD to tie the game at 14-14. Usually when things like that happen the underdog goes on to win the game because the fav starts to feel like maybe its not their day. The Panthers went on to outscore Was 30-2 in the final 3Qs helped by 5 Washington turnovers. The Washington road struggles are real. So are the Panthers.
- San Diego can’t score: Next man up is great and all but for most teams that only goes so far. The Chargers offense without Keenan Allen and Michael Floyd is devoid of playmakers. Carrying the 30th ranked run game minus his top 2 receivers is too much to ask of Phillip Rivers. The Chiefs are now 7th in Defensive DVOA and 5th in Weighted DVOA overall, under the radar Andy Reid has turned their season around, definitely a team to look at ATS the rest of the way
What Went Wrong:
Not a god damn thing !
What Did We Learn
The Ind-Atl game is a good example of something that is important to keep in mind while betting and something I have fallen victim to the last few weeks.. There is a kind of balancing act with worrying about getting the best of the number, which is important, and getting on a play that still has value even though sharps have bet it up or down.
The Colts opened at +6 which was a great number, I got it at 4.5 which was an ok number and it closed at +3.5. In the end all of those would have won because of course the Colts won outright. Last week I layed off the Chiefs because after opening at +6.5 and it was bet down all the way down to 3.5 and the Chiefs won outright as well. In these cases when we know its not the public moving the number worrying about a 1 or 2 point move that isn’t through a key number 3 or 7 should probably not move you off the bet.
Now if it does move through those key numbers or if instead of laying 3 you have to lay 3.5 then it does matter and laying off very well may be the smart move.
What else did we learn? That for 1 week I deserve a vignette like this