Divisional Weekend: 1-2

Wildcard Weekend 2-1

Reg Season ATS 60-42

Game 1 Bal @ NE Under 48

Bet % Over 63% Under 37%

Score: Bal 31 NE 35 (66)

Result: Loss

Not Even Close! I liked Bal+7 all week and should have stuck with that but thought the under was safer, this game was completely out of had early and it kept going that way. The biggest reason this game went over neither defense could hold the opponent to a FG, Ravens went 4-5 in the redzone while NE went 3 for 3.  I really fet the Ravens would be able to 1 limit the Pats run game which hey did, holding them to 14 yards on 13 carries. I also thought the Ravens would get a lot of pressue on the Pats and be able to protect their porous secondary, which they didn’t. While the Ravens did get 9 QB hits they only got 2 sacks and only 2 TFL.

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Wildcard Weekend 2-1

Reg Season ATS 60-42

I found this a tough weekend to handicap, Divisional weekend is my favorite football weekend of the year but this years games have such interesting matchups that for the most part I felt the lines were pretty good and whenever I lfelt I had a good read on one side, I would see something to make me like the other. Overall I do like 3 plays as of now including 2 totals.

Game 1 Bal @ NE Under 48

Bet % Over 63% Under 37%

Most of the week I liked Bal +7 but as the week went on and I read more and more people picking Bal as the team most likely to pull the upset I began wondering if maybe everyone, including me,was putting too much stock on the previous playoff games between the two teams. I also wondered that since it had been about 3 weeks since NE played a game they had to show up for maybe we were forgetting just how good they have been the 2nd half of the season.

In the end what I trust most about Baltimore is their defense, if they win this game it wil be because their pass rush will overwhelm the Patriots, similar to what we saw KC do on that MNF game. Ravens are the #6 DVOA defense overall, they are dominant vs the run giving up just 3.6 yards/rush 3rd best and should be able to make NE a one dimensional offense in this game. Where Baltimore has struggled is defending the deep passing game but NE doesn’t really have the type of speed to get behind them so I don’t see that being a major issue here.

On the flip side NE brings the 11th best DVOA defense to face the Ravens 9th ranked offense, they are 9th in opp passer rating and at home should be able to cause problems for Flacco. There are a couple of numbers I really like when betting unders, the first is yards per point against and here we have the 4th and 5th best teams by that metric, Bal gives up a point for every 18.1 yards while NE gives up a point for every 17.6. It should be mentioned that by that NE is #1 in yards per point on offense at 12.5 yards/pt which is one of the reasons I didn’t like Bal +7. The Other number I like is TD% against in the Redzone and both tehse teams hold offenses under 50%, Bal holds teams to TD’s 42% and NE does it 47.8%.

If Bal wins I thin their defense dominates the game and the offense does just enough and it comes under the total but I also think this is a game the defense could play well and still lost by double digits 24-13 or something. What I don;t see is both these offenses getting off and playing in the high 20’s.

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Wildcard Weekend 2-1

Reg Season ATS: 60-42

2014- 2015 Overall 62-43

Nice start to the playoffs, both wins were really strong through the game, the loss on Dallas never really had a chance but overall I felt good about my breakdowns of the wildcard week.

Game 1: Ari @ Car -5.5

Bet% Ari 55% Car 45%

Score Ari 16 Car 27

Result: Win

This was kind of  a strange game as I’m sure Cardinals backers would say if anyone but Lindley was starting they could have won this game as a couple of big mistakes late by him ended up killing any chance of the comeback ot to mention just his general ineptness. That being said as a Panther backer I would say that had it not been for a couple of big mistakes after Car took a 10-0 lead, the muffed punt and Int return which set up 2 first half TDs this game would have been over early.

Overall this was  ugly game was dominated by the Panthers, they outgained Arizona 386 to 78,hel the Cards to 1.7 yards/play. The game was full of mistakes which game both teams an opportunity to lose it at different points, 3 turnovers each and the Panthers also had twice the penalty yards the Cards did.

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Week 17- 2-3

Season ATS: 60-42

The regular season ended with a losing week of 2-3, it was a tough week in that both the wins were no doubters an in all of the losses we either had a couple of key plays or D/ST TDs go the wrong way. Adding to the frustration of the week, there were 4 other games I liked this week when deciding the card, 3 of which I had the right side. None the less, even though we had a rough December and finished with a losing week, we end the season just a fraction under 60% which is a pretty great year, so it’s a little like making the playoffs even though you lost your final game.

Game 1: Phi at NYG -1

Bet% Phi 41% NYG59

Score: Phi 34-NYG 26

Result: Loss

I thought going in the that motivation for this game was very different for these 2 teams, the Eagles missed out on the playoffs last week and were on a 3 game losing streak, I didn’t think there was much reason for them to be up for the game. As for the Giants they were closing out the season on a high note playing their best football of the season. I was wrong on the Eagles as they came out and played a really competitive game.

This was a really even game, both teams ran around the same amount of plays Phi-72 NYG-78, the Giants outgained the Eagles 6.5 yards per play to 5.9 overall and 8.1 yards per att to 6.6 in the pass game. Eagles outgained the Giants on the ground 5.1/rush to 3.0.

The difference in this game came down to the redzone, where the Eagles were 2-4 to the Giants 1–3 and the big punt and return TD by the Eagles in the 3rd Q when the score was 17-16 Eagles. The Giants never led again after that play.

Game 2 NYJ +7 @ Mia

Bet% NYJ 43% Mia 57%

Score: NYJ 37 Mia 24

Result: Win

I liked the Jets for 2 reasons in this game, the largest being this was going to be Rex Ryan’s last game and the very popular coach would have his players give a great performance in hopes of sending him off with a win. I also thought they would be able to have success in the run game.

The run game for the Jets was only so so. NYJ only averaged 3.1 yards per rush but kept with it rushing 34 times, it was actually the Miami run game that dominated averaging 8.9 yards per rush (179 on 20 carries) but it should be noted Lamar Miller had 97 of those yards on 1 carry.

While it wasn’t in the run game, the Jets did play their best offensive game of the year, they had almost 500 yards of offense, Geno Smith had a perfect passer rating of 158.3, the Jets had 5 plays of 20 yards or more including a 74 yard TD pass to Decker which led to an amazing 13.9 yards per pass attempt.

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Season ATS: 58-39

Week 17 is one of the most unpredictable week’s to bet every year as we never really know how teams will choose to end their seasons. More often then not the results are flipped, we see good teams with playoff spots locked up rest key guys, while teams that struggled all year try to end on a high note. So when betting you gotta topsy turvey that muthfaucka.

Game 1: Phi at NYG -1

Bet% Phi 41% NYG59

The Eagles have lost 3 games in a row and last week’s loss to Washington eliminated them from the playoffs. This week has easily been the most difficult of the Chip Kelly era as he and Billy Davis were absolutely killed by the Philly media for their use of CB Bradley Fletcher in 1 on 1 situations with a single high safety.  The thing is this isn’t new, the Eagles have given up a league high 10 plays of 50 yards or more and it started in the opener when Allen Hurns beat them for a big TD. Over the last 3 games opposing QB’s are putting up a avg passer rating of 105 and 7.8 yards per pass att. With nothing to play for, hard to see how they come out of this funk this week.

For the Giants, they have one 3 in a row and probably should have one the 2 games that preceded thos 3, the Giants have the hottest QB-WR combo in the league with Eli and Odell Beckam Jr and it certainly looks like they are trying to end the season on a high behind their new superstar.

Fletcher is out for Phi but in terms of how the play, I don’t see how they change for the last game. Eagles will continue to play with single high safety and whether it’s Nolan Carrol or Brandon Boykins, nobody on this team can handle ODB.

Game 2 NYJ +7 @ Mia

Bet% NYJ 43% Mia 57%

Miami is the better team in this game by a large margin, Miami is #11 in DVOA while the Jets are #27 so the line seems about right. I will be on the Jets for one reason, Rex Ryan. This is in all likelihood the last game of the Rex Ryan era and the one thing that is undeniable about Ryan is that he is beloved by his players, in what will be his last game I think they do everything they can to get him a win.

The one place the Jets should have success is in the run game, Jets are 2nd in the league in rushin at 4.6 yards per attempt and run defense is the big hole in the Miami defense they are 25th giving up 4.4 per game and have been worse recently giving up 4.7 yards per att the last 3 weeks.

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Week 16 4-2

Season ATS: 58-39

After 2 straight losing weeks, sweet sweet relief.

Week 15 2-3

Game 1: SD +1.5

Bet% SD 60 SF 40

Score: SD 38 SF 35 OT

Result: Win

In week’s 14 and 15 there were a couple of games where I thought I was on the right side but didn’t get some bounces or a couple of big plays went the wrong way and wins turned to losses. I’s funny because over the long haul games like that see to even out and this game was payback for some tough losses the the last few weeks.

SD trailed this game 28-7 at half, threw 3 interceptions to SF’s zero but managed to recover all 4 fumbles including one by their punt returner Eric Weddle in OT and comeback on the strength of Phillip Rivers arm and 4 passing TDs. Not very often you come back from down 21 to a team as good as SFs defense but the football gods smiled on us here.

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Week 15 2-3

Season ATS: 54-37

Coming off of the worst week of the season I found myself very gun shy tis week. THere were 2 unders that were stone cold unders in terms of meeting my criteria, 1 of which I bet in the first meeting (Sea-SF) the other was Arz-Stl and partly because of the 1-6 week LW I tried to be very selective in my plays and it probably cost me here. Another losing week though only by 1 here and the overall record continues to look very good. Still not the bounce back week I was looking for.

Game 1 GB @ Buf+3.5

Bet% GB 75% Buf 25%

Score: GB 13 – Buf 21

Result: Win

A remarkable game by the #2 DVOA ranked and #1 ranked pass rush Buffalo defense in this game.  Bills held Rodgers to 4.1 yards per pass and also intercepted him twice holding him to an amazing passer rating of 34.3 and QBR of 17.2.

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Last Week: 1-6

Season ATS: 52-34

Last week was the worst one of the season and it’s funny how much it affected my confidence this week. Nothing jumped off th page to me this week, the TNF game looked like a stone cold under to me but I couldn’t quite pull the trigger on what would have been a win. I didn’t finalize my plays this week until Sunday morning but here is hoping for some redemption.

Game 1 GB @ Buf+3.5

Bet% GB 75% Buf 25%

I wish I would have got the best of this number at the 4.5 but on Sunday morning we had a bug reverse move as this game dropped to 3.5 and even 3 at the sharp books. GB has been annihilating teams and the public will bet them in any circumstance but GB has not been quite as impressive on the road they are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road.

Buffalo brings the the #2 DVOA defense, they hold opposing QB’s to a passer rating of 77.6 which is 2nd in the league and they are #1 in the league in sack percentage. Green bay has struggled in games where Aaron Rogers has been pressured and with Eddie Lacy banged up the Bills should be able to focus on rushing Rodgers without worrying about the run as much as a regular week.

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