Eagles

NFL Week 4 Picks – Being Prepared for a Hurricane

I didn’t get a chance to really look at the opening lines this week until late Tuesday and in doing so I missed out on a few great opportunities. Week 4 saw some dramatic line moves especially in the totals due to the impending Hurricane Joaquin, the sharps bet heavily on the unders on games like Was – Phi and quickly drove the lines down.

Its a good lesson on the importance of checking out the opening lines and being prepared early to take advantage of opening lines either because of major factors like weather & injuries or simply knowing that certain numbers are going to be bet a certain way because of public perception.

Season ATS 12-7 Last Week 4-3

Game1 NYJ -1.5 vs MIA (In London England)

Bet% NYJ 67% Mia 33%

All week I kept thinking of reasons not to bet the Jets like the game is in London and there is definitely some unknowns that come with that, The Dolphins have underperformed all year and at some point are going to play up to their talent and the there are rumours that Philbins job is on the line so you never know how that impacts the team. In the end,this feels like it’s too good a matchup at a cheap price.

The Jets and Dolphins have played similar levels of competition but had very different results. The Jets are 2-1 with a point differential of +27 while Miami is 1-2 with a point differential of -23. The Jets have been helped in their wins with turnover margins that are not sustainable but what is sustainable is their dominant defense.

The Jets are #2 in defensive DVOA, against the pass they are #4 in avg opp passer rating, 66.5 which includes Andrew Luck, 3rd in opp passing yards per attempt and 7th vs the run giving up 3.5 yards per rush. Miami has not had much luck running the ball so far this season averaging only 4.0 yards per rush and the Jets just faced the Eagles last week who have very similar run schemes to the Dolphins and held them to 3.2 yards per rush.  That means the middling Dolphins pass game will have to carry the offense vs the dominant Jets pass defense.

On the flip side the Dolphins run defense has not got better even with the addition of Suh to the defensive line, they are 22nd in the league giving up 4.2 yards per att and the Jets get Chris Ivory back this week. Miami’s pass defense has been even worse giving up 7.9 yards per attempt (29th) which considering who they have played, Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor aren’t exactly a murders row should provide the Jets plenty of opportunities to score.

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NFL Week 3 Review

Like Week 2, Week 3 looked like it had a chance to be me much better as the Ravens, led late in the 4th Q, the Car NO game was under mid way through the 4th and the Rams were within 1 score of the Steelers throughout the game but in the end all 3 of those games went the wrong way. Nonetheless, the overall record continues to look  good and I wouldn’t dare be sour about a winning week in betting the NFL

Rollins dont be sour

Week 3: 4-3

Season ATS: 12-7

Week 3 Results

Week 3 Rev

What Went Right

 Kirk Cousins on the road was typical Kirk Cousins – In my write up I thought this was a spot where we would see Bad Kirk Cousins and with 2 Ints and a QBR of 39.7 that’s exactly what we got. As expected Wash was able to shut down the NYG run game but Eli more than made up for it in the passing game avg 8.7 yards per attempt and 2 TDs as the Giants go their 1st win of the season.

Eagles D and ST – I had both the Eagles and the under this week and both bets cashed on the strength of the Eagles defense holding the Jets to only 17 points and coming up with big plays in crucial moments with takeaways in this game. (more…)

Week 3 – 0 -2 Teams teetering on the Ledge

It is amazing how many times this week we have heard games described as ‘must win’ for the 0-2 teams and while usually the term must win is over used, going 0-3 historically has been a death blow to teams hoping to make playoffs. Since 2007, 5 teams have made the playoffs after going 0-2 but if you change that to 0-3 only 5 teams in history have made the playoffs so clearly the road becomes very difficult. Now there is an important caveat in that usually teams that start 0-2 aren’t very good and not expected to make the playoffs anyways, which makes this year kind of unique as The Seahawks, Colts, Ravens and Eagles all were expected to be serious contenders this year but find themselves 0-2 and teetering on disaster.

Season ATS 8-4 Last Week 3-3

Game 1 Was @ NYG -3

Game 2 Cin @ Bal -2.5

Bet % Cin 50% Bal 50%

The Ravens are the first 0-2 I am looking at this week as they play the 2-0 Bengals. Looking at the schedule this really is must win for the Ravens after they played a very tough opener in Denver, where they lost a 1 score game and then dropped a bad one in Oakland. Now after playing at home this week they have to go back on the road again, this time on a short week and play in Pittsburgh on TNF.

Looking at the first 2 weeks, Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing game has been performing far below their established levels from last season, the Ravens passer rating this season is 75.7 as compared to a rating of 91.last year and early on they have has issues with interceptions with 3, Flacco had 12 in all of 2014.

As for Cincy, they have been very good to start the season but I do think that Daulton has been playing a little above his ability, he has posted a passer rating of 120.3 so far while his career rating is 86. Coming into the season these were 2 very even teams by DVOA, 6th and 8th, but when you factor in home field and the discrepancy in how important this game is to the 2 teams I really like the Ravens in this spot to keep their season alive.

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Week 13 – Thanksgiving Day

LW 4-1

Season 47-26

Game 1 Chi @ Det Under 48

Bet% Over 57% 43%

Detroit is an under machine right now, the #1 DVOA offense even after giving up 34 to the Patriots last week has had 8 or 9 of the 11 games go under (depending on line) because while their defense is premier giving up 17.3 point per game, the offense has run dry. Over the last 7 weeks the Lions have averaged 13.6 points per game and in those same 7 games only 1 game has gone over, a 24-23 win vs the Saints where the total was set at 45.5. The Lions are just not a very efficient offense they are 30th in yards per point and 24th in RZ TD at 50%

As for Chicago, their offense has also slowed down, they are the 20th in the league scoring 21.5 ppg and in the last 3 games they are down to 18.7. The Bears are very good in the red zone where they score TD’s 66% of time (5th) but they only get on average 3 trips per game(17th) and Det holds teams to TDs on 51% of trips (12th). On defense Chicago has the 23rd ranked DVOA defense and had 2 historically bad games vs the Patriots and Packers where they gave up 50 to each of those teams which is why I think this total is as high as it is. Outside of those 2 HOF QB’s the most points that the Bears have given up was 27 to Mia and Atl, 2 teams in the top 10 in offensive DVOA which Det is not.

So we have 2 offenses that are struggling, 1 elite defense and 1 defense that has been exploited by the best offenses but been about league average vs the rest of the field. After getting handled last week, I think the Lions defense has a big game and keeps the Bears below 20 which should get us the under with a number this high.

Game 2: Phi +3 @ Dal

Bet% Phi 42 Dal 58

This is the biggest game of the year in the NFC East as the 2 division leaders play their first game of 2 in the next 3 weeks.  The Eagles are ranked 8th in DVOA while Dallas is 10, what’s interesting about the Chip Kelly led Eagles is that it is their offense that holds their ranking back as their defense is 8th, Special teams are 1st but the offense is 18th. On offense the Eagles have struggled in 2 places, the first s the red zone where they are scoring TD’s only 46% of the trips and the other is turnovers where the Eagles are last with 27 giveaways.

A lot of he Eagles issues on offense  have been due to issues on the offensive line, the Eagles have had 4 key linemen miss at least 4 games this year but this will be the 3rd straight week that the Eagles have their 4 best linemen playing.  We can see some improvement in the last 3 weeks where their RZ TD% has been 7pts higher than their season average at 53.3% as well as Shady Mccoy who after struggling most of the year has averaged 4.9 yard per attempt the last 2 weeks. I expect that success to continue vs the Cowboys who give up 4.3 per rush attempt.

The Dallas offense has been dominant all year, they lead the league in rushing yards, 2nd in yards per attempt at 4.9 which allows them to have big plays in the pass game where they average 7.8 yards per pass att (2nd). That run game has been slowed a bit the last few weeks, in the last 3 they are averaging 4.5 yards per att which is still very good but not quite as elite as the 4.9 over the season. The Eagles defense lines up well vs Dallas as what they do best his play the run, they are giving up 3.9 yards per att( 9th) and they have actually been even better than that the last 3 weeks giving up just 3.5 yards attempt. If the Eagles can slow the Dallas run game they should be able to get pressure on Romo, Eagles are 2nd in the league in sack% and again over the last 3 games have been even better getting sacks on 11.4% of plays.

The big hole on Dallas is their defense ranked 25th in DVOA, they are giving up 7,4 yards per pass att and getting sacks on only 4.6% of plays, so if the Eagles offensive line plays to their abilities Sanchez should have plenty of time and opportunities to make plays, Eagles are averaging 7 yards per pass but again that’s been better the last 3 weeks where they are averaging 7.6. The 2 big wildcards are turnovers where the Eagles are last and special teams where the Eagles are first, if they can keep the turnovers down I think Eagles win straight up.

Game 3: Sea @ SF under 40.5

Two top 10 DVOA defenses playing against offense that have struggled to be consistant in scoring points in this game. 5of the 6 meetings between these two teams have gone under and for the 49ers, 4 of their last 5 have gone under, the only exception was an OT game against the Saints. The 49ers defense has been especially good in the last 3 weeks when Chris Borland was inserted into MLB and they also had top pass rusher Aldon Smith return for the last 2 weeks.

These are two of the stingiest teams in the league, Seattle gives up 19.8 PPG while SF gives up 20.5 but even better than that in the last 3 games these teams have given up 14.7 and 15.7 respectively. Both of these offenses are based on the run and both defenses handle the run very well, SF gives up 4.0 yards per rush while Seattle is even better giving up only  3.5. The 49ers have been great against the pass leading the league in opponent passer rating at 74.1 but again over the last 3 weeks that has been even better as the opp passer rating is an amazing 58.6 in that period.

A key to get unders is redzone play and these are also 2 of the worst teams in the redzone, Sea is 21st at 50% while SF is last at 40% meanwhile these are 2 o the best defenses at keeping teams out of the redzone as they rank 3rd and 5th allowing only 2.5 and 2.7 redzone trips per game. This is one of the lowest unders we have seen in week’s which is interesting but I’m not sure it will be low enough.

Week 10 Picks

Looking to rebound after the worst week of the season, I have 3 unders on the card this week, so here hoping the games ‘Get Low’……..Skeet Skeet.

Season ATS 31-23

Game 1: Car @ Phi-6.5

Bet%Car 36 Phi 64

For the 2nd week in a row I will be taking the square play in an Eagles game, this time on MNF. I should of bet this game at the open of -6 as there was only one way it was going, not sure if it will get to 7 by Monday but it wouldn’t surprise me.

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Week 5 Picks

Game 1: Hou +6.5 @Dal

Bet% Hou 35% @ Dal 65%

The 3-1 Cowboys have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, led by the leagues #1 rushing attack at 165 yards  per game, Dallas has quickly changed the perception of this team.  That being said this might be a good spot to go against them.  Dallas is coming off of a very big prime time win vs the Saints and next week plays the super bowl champ Seahawks, so this could be a let down game for them. Hou also brings a much better defense  than any of the 3 teams that Dallas has beaten so far, the Texans are ranked 12 in Defensive DVOA while the Titans, Rams and Saints were ranked 20,30,32 respectively.

6.5 points seems like a lot in his game, while Dallas is at home there should be plenty of support for Houston in the Jerry dome which lessons the home field advantage.  The Dallas defense while not the historically bad unit some expected is still playing very poorly giving up 6.5 yards per play and 7.4 yards per pass, both up from last year, so Houston should be able to move the ball this week.

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3-1 Eagles: Great Offense or Good Luck?

Better to be lucky than good? So far for the Eagles the answer has been yes

lucky-dude-bike-drop-sign

The Philadelphia Eagles have had a very interesting first 4 weeks of the season so far. The Eagles are 3-1 and depending on your line last week, either 3-1 or 2-2 ATS, while averaging 30.5 points per game, scoring 30, 30, 37 & 21 in the first 4. At first glance it appears the season is going the way last season went and the way many anticipated this season going. The defense is struggling again and forcing the team to win shootouts on the back of their offense but is that what has really happened? Below are the offensive numbers so far in 2014 compared to the 2013 number when the Eagles were one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Phi Week 4B
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