On Thursday Night Football I took the New York Jets who covered the +10, on the same night I saw Nas performing Illmatic live in it’s entirety something I’ve been waiting for 20 years to see. I also have the NY Giants this week and think they can win straight up. Week 7 …..NY State of Mind
Game 2 NYG+6.5 @ Dal
Bet%NYG 45 Dal 55
This game is the ultimate bounceback / let down game.
Game 1: NYJ+10 @NE
Bet% NYJ 34 NE% 66
The Jets are losers of 5 straight but outside of the SD 31-0 loss have been competitive in all of the games. NE is coming off of 2 straight wins where they have looked impressive but were a 1 point home dog vs Cin and then only 2.5pt fav in Buf last week which has led to, I believe, an inflated line here at 10.
I think the recent blowouts on TNF also help inflate this line but in a few of those games we saw first year coaches (Min, TB, Was) vs established coaches. In this game we have 2 teams and coaches that know each other very well so there shouldn’t be an issue with preparation.
The Pats have covered the last 2 weeks but have traditionally struggled as a double digit favorite, they went 0-3 ATS last year in that spot including vs the Jets in week 15 when they were 10.5 favorites and won by a FG. They also failed to cover their only time as a double digit favorite this year vs Oakland where they were as 13.5 favorites in week 3.
Finally it has rained heavily all day in Foxborough, the total has dropped from 46 to 44 and line has dropped to 9.5 at a few sharper books. A sloppy field should help keep this game lower scoring and keep the Jets close throughout.
Host of my favorite betting podcast, Gill Alexander @beatingthebook on twitter, often describes NFL betting as basically a game of Plinko from The Price is Right. If you had a bet on any of NYJ/Den, GB/Mia, Wash/Ari, Jax/Ten games you know exactly what that means.
Week 6: 4-4
Season: 23-12
Partly because of the type of games on this week’s docket and partly because I didn’t feel good about a lot of the numbers, this week I break out some teasers. God help me.
Week 5: 4-2 Season ATS: 19-8
5 weeks in and no losing weeks so far. Oh Yeah!
Game 1: Hou +6.5 @Dal
Bet% Hou 35% @ Dal 65%
Score: Hou 17 Dal 20 OT
Bet Result: Win
Note: Dallas outgained Houston 456 to 330 and ran 20 more plays but Houston was able to hold Dallas to 4.2 Yards per rush below their season avg and win the turnover battle 1-3.
Game 1: Hou +6.5 @Dal
Bet% Hou 35% @ Dal 65%
The 3-1 Cowboys have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, led by the leagues #1 rushing attack at 165 yards per game, Dallas has quickly changed the perception of this team. That being said this might be a good spot to go against them. Dallas is coming off of a very big prime time win vs the Saints and next week plays the super bowl champ Seahawks, so this could be a let down game for them. Hou also brings a much better defense than any of the 3 teams that Dallas has beaten so far, the Texans are ranked 12 in Defensive DVOA while the Titans, Rams and Saints were ranked 20,30,32 respectively.
6.5 points seems like a lot in his game, while Dallas is at home there should be plenty of support for Houston in the Jerry dome which lessons the home field advantage. The Dallas defense while not the historically bad unit some expected is still playing very poorly giving up 6.5 yards per play and 7.4 yards per pass, both up from last year, so Houston should be able to move the ball this week.
Week 4: 3-3 Season ATS 15-6
Game 1 Mia vs Oak +4 (In London)
Bet % Mia 60 Oak 40
Score: Mia 38- Oak 14
Bet Result: Loss
Note: Oak scored first and after that it was never close. In my write up, I discussed Oakland’s defense carrying the team so far but they were terrible in this game especially vs the pass where they gave up a ridiculous 9 yards per pass. The Oak offense which was already bad got worse after David Carr was injured and replaced by Matt McGloin who came in and threw 2 picks.
My normal process for picking games is to first use key metrics to help determine the better team and then try to analyse the betting data and any team situations ie schedule issues, let down spots, home road splits, to see if there are opportunities. This week for the most part we can skip the first part because I am not taking most of these these teams because I think they are good, they’re not. These are some of the ugliest teams in the league but I do think they are the games presenting the most value this week so basically I will hold my nose make the picks and hope that God Does Love Ugly.
Game 5: KC+6 @ Mia
Bet% KC54 Mia 46
Jamal Charles was officially listed as out and this line moved to 6. At the open -4.5 I thought KC was a pretty good play but didnt quite have enough value, I had Charles as a non factor from the start he was either going to be out or limited so to me his being officially out doesnt change how I see this game. The more closely I follow this the more I think injuries to skill positions are over rated, especially in the first game if the injury. Last week we saw Charles leave early and Nile Davis played well picking up 79 yards on 22 carries and scoring 2TD’s, he also had 6 catches for 34 yards.
Miami is coming off of a loss in Buffalo where they got outplayed in all 3 phases, including giving up big plays on special teams. I just do not think they deserve to be 6 pt favorites over a reasonably functional team, which the Chiefs are. Chiefs are riddled with injuries but as someone who watched Andy Reid coached teams for a decade he generally does his best work when his team gets hit by the injury bug, I think we’ll see that here.
Week 3 seemed like a tougher week for me, not a lot of the games jumped off the page and even the ones I like have some things that scare me. Anyways here are the picks.
Game 1 SD +2.5 @ Buf
Bet % SD 64 BUF 36%
Both San Diego and Buffalo are coming off big wins in week 2, SD beat Superbowl champion Seahawks while Buffalo won their home opener vs divisional opponent Miami. Buffalo is off to an 2-0 start, so the question for me is, is it sustainable? When looking at what Buffalo has done so far in first 2 weeks compared to their results last season then either this team has improved to elite levels or they have simply outperformed the first 2 weeks. Considering their minimal roster improvements in off season it does not seem likely they have improved to these levels especially the yds/pt against and the yard/pass attempt. We also know how important turnover margin is winning and losing games, Buffalo is +4 in TO margin, it is impossible to think that can keep up.
Get the Cover 