Week 4: 3-3    Season ATS 15-6

Game 1 Mia vs Oak +4 (In London)

Bet % Mia 60 Oak 40

Score: Mia 38- Oak 14

Bet Result: Loss

Note: Oak scored first and after that it was never close. In my write up, I discussed Oakland’s defense carrying the team so  far but they were terrible in this game especially vs the pass where they gave up a ridiculous  9 yards per pass.  The Oak offense which was already bad got worse after David Carr was injured and replaced by Matt McGloin who came in and threw 2 picks.

Game 2 TB+7.5 @ Pit

Bet% TB29 Pit 61

Score: TB 27 Pit 24

Bet Result: Win

Note: This game basically went as perfectly as possible, TB got off to an early 10-0 lead which was a huge boost in confidence after getting blown out last week and not only covered the 7.5 but ended up winning the game straight up.

Game 3.

Jax +13 @ SD

Bet% Jax 36% SD 64%

Score: Jax 14 SD 33

Bet Result: Loss

Note: Blake Bortles was an upgrade over Chad Henne at QB for the Jags and they were within striking distance of the 13 most of the game but turnovers and SD being very efficient in scoring and the passing game put this one out reach.  Jax is going to get some really big lines but playing against teams that are scoring efficiently (SD avg 14.5 yards per point) will continue to be dangerous.

Game 4

Phi @ SF-3.5

Bet% Phi 49% SF51%

Score: Phi 21 SF 26

Bet Result: Win

Note: This was one of the few games this week where the number you bet actually mattered as this line moved between 3.5 and 5.5, luckily I got it at 3.5.  The final score was much closer than the game play as the Eagles scored 3 TD’s on defense and special teams. One of the big surprises in this game for me was how much pressure the Eagles got on Kaepernick, Philly has been unable to get any pass rush this year and handled the SF Oline which doesn’t speak well for SF.

Game 5

Ten+7.5 @ Ind

Bet% Ten 22% Ind 78%

Score: Ten 17 Ind 41

Bet Result: Lose

Note: This game was one I had dead wrong, I think I have been wrong on how good Indy is. I thought their issues on defense and offensive line would make them vulnerable but their offense and Andrew Luck appear able to be able to make up for most of those short comings.  As far as the Titans they are worse on defense than I anticipated I also thought their Oline would be a strength and power their run game but so far that hasn’t happened. All that being said, getting a TD plus the hook in a divisional game where public is almost 80% on home side make me think the play here was still Ten or stay away. Wish I’d stayed away.

Game 6

NE @ KC +3.5

Bet % NE 48% KC +3.5

Score NE 14 KC 41

Bet Result: Win

Note: KC dominated this game start to finish, jumping out to an early lead they would never relinquish. NE struggled to extend drives, going 2-9 on 3rd downs compared to KC who was 7-12 which along with their success in the run game (38-207yds) helped KC maintain possession for  36min. Also of note here is KC came into the game -5 in turnover margin,, in this game they did not have any while NE had 3.