Week 10 : 7-0

Season ATS : 38-23

Weeks like this don’t happen very often but in Week 10 we get the magical and all so allusive Perfect week going 7-0. Curt Henning would be proud.

Game 1: Car @ Phi-6.5

Bet%Car 36 Phi 64

Score: Car 21 Phi 45

Result: Win

I loved this game, thought the Panthers were a perfect matchup for the Eagles and as long as Sanchez didn’t turn it over Eagles would be able to put up points.  While I thought it would happen on the ground, Panthers stacked the box and forced Sanchez to beat them and he did throwing for 8.4 yards/pass, over 300 yards and TD.

On the other side the game went as I expected as the Eagles dominated the Panthers terrible Offensive line, they had 29 sacks/QB hits/TFL’s which led to 5 Panther turnovers including a pick 6.

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Week 9 2-5

Season ATS 31-23

Mama said there would be days like this

Week 9 was one of those weeks where in the games where I thought I was getting value against a better team, the better team came out and still covered the inflated number ie (Saints, Chiefs, Colts) and in the game where I thought I had the better team, they got bleached (Ravens).

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Game 7 Ind @ NYG+3

Bet% Ind 75 NYG 25

It’s been a tough week as I lost a couple of game I thought we were getting good value in but long term being on the right side of the value column should pay off.  So here we find some value on MNF in a game that isnt easy to bet.  I feel like I bet against the Colts every week and most of the season the result hasn’t been fun. Like last week nobody wants to bet the home team against the Colts, this line in the summer was NYG +2 while I think you can make the case that the Giants shouldn’t be favored the true line should probably be a pick or Indy-1. The line opened -3.5 but was bet down to the 3 even though most of the tickets have been on Indy.  Wish I was getting the 3.5 but will take the 3 with a home team coming off the bye that is capable of winning against anyone when they are on and hope being on the right side pays here.

Game 2: Phi -2 @ Hou

Bet % Phi 72 Hou 38%

This is a game that most people i respect in the industry have been on the Texans and the Eagles pick is clearly a public play which is always a concern.  That being said I feel as a fan of the team I have pretty good insight on the Eagles and think there are some key returns from injury hat are not being properly accounted for.

The Eagles at 5-2 are #6 in DVOA but have not been very efficient on offense 24th in yards per pass at 6.4 and 15th in yards per rush at 4.2.  There have been 2 key reasons why they have been so inefficient, the first is injuries to the Offensive line. The Eagles have not had 1 game this year with all 5 starters playing and in fact only had 1 game the opener where 4 of the starters played, the opener in Jacksonville where LG Evan Mathis was hurt during the game.  This week in Houston, with the return of the star center Jason Kelce the Eagles will have 4 of their top 5 O linemen playing.  The Kelce return should greatly improve the Eagles run game as nobody on the Eagles line gets the 2nd level better.  The return of Darren Sproles should also help the run game as well as the special teams.

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Game 1: NO @ Car +3

Bet% NO 62 Car 38

Not a lot to write here but I think the wrong team is favored so we are getting a lot of value with the full 3 and Car at home. I was on the Saints last week, who were in a must win game at home on SNF with that great  crowd and home advantage.  Even though the score in the NO – GB game was 44-23 the game was played basically even except NO won the turnover battle 3-1 which swung the game big in their favor.  Now on an extra short week, playing SNF and travelling to Carolina a poor road team is favored in a divisional game in a stadium they have struggled.

The Saints troubles on the road since last year are striking, in 2013 they went 1-7 ATS, 3-5 SU in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs, this year, the Saints are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.  The Saints trouble’s in Carolina have also been striking as they are 1-5 ATS and 2-4 SU in their last 6 games in Carolina.

As for the Panthers they are coming off of a tough loss in Seattle where they played the wounded Super Bowl champs and lost a close one.  They like the Saints are also a much better team at home winning 9 of their last 12 both ATS and SU.

Maybe the Saints buck recent history and play well on the road but I cannot see how they should be a 3 point fav in a place they have traditionally struggled and both teams are playing for the division lead.

Week 8: 4-2

Season ATS 29-18

After the first losing week of the season in week 7, I’m Back Baby!

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Game 6: GB @ NO-2

Bet% GB 67 NO 33

Interesting line in this game, opened NO -1 and has moved to -2 -2.5 depending on book even though majority of bets are on GB and we know SNF games are the most heavily bet games of the week so there has to be real money on Saints.

Saints have been disappointing but have had one of the best home fields in the league the last number of years, on a SNF in a crucial game for their playoff hopes and Halloween around the corner this should be a wild crowd in New Orleans. It should be noted that even though they are 2-4, in 3 of those 4 losses they led the game in the 4th quarter, including last week in Detroit when a Brees interception late cost them the win. If they can clean up their play calling in the 4th that should help them get a win here. I actually thought the saints performacne in Detroit last week was their best of the season on offense when you consider the quality of competition. The Lions are the number 1 DVOA defense, and the Saints were able to move the ball especially in the air and despite 2 turnovers and an injured Jimmy Graham score 23 in Detroit.

One of the key differences between these 2 teams has been turnovers, GB is first in the league in TO margin at +9 while NO is 29th at -7,if we get some normalization of these then NO should be able come up with the win.

Week 7 brought my first losing week due to a dumb pick in Jacksonville and a dumber pick in Seattle

Week 7: 2-4

Season ATS: 25-16

Game 1: NYJ+10 @NE

Bet% NYJ 34 NE% 66

Score: NYJ 25 NE 27

Result: Win

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