For part 2 of our early season betting preview I look at teams that I think we will get value betting against, teams where I believe the perception of how good they are is greater than what I expect from them this year.
Again like in part 1, the point is not that we bet against these teams blindly but these are teams that I think will underperform their expectations and therefore offer more value in betting against them than on them.
Also like the previous post there will be a lot of discussion of luck or randomness, the fact that a team had good luck doesn’t mean they weren’t also a very good team it just means the added benefit of luck overstates their quality.
Carolina Panthers
Its hard to have a better season than the Panthers had last year. Obviously losing in the Superbowl takes some of the shine off the season but really it shouldn’t, the Panthers had a remarkable season on both sides of the ball.
In what was a breakout year for both Cam Newton and the Panthers defense led by Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman, the Panthers mauled teams with a league high 32.88 rush atts per game and had the #1 scoring offense.
What was interesting about the Panthers last year is through the first 6 weeks, even though they were undefeated a lot of the key analytics didn’t reflect it, they were outside of the top 10 in DVOA through week 6 and outside of the top 10 in most passing stats.
The one place they were in 1st start to finish besides the standings is in toxic differential. Toxic differential is basically your turnover differential plus your explosive play (pass plays of 25 yards+, rushing plays of 10+ yards) differential. The Panthers finished with the best turnover margin and the 2nd best big play differential.
Early Season Betting: Bet Against
There is no question the Panthers are an elite team and I still expect them to win the NFC South this year but it is basically impossible for them to perform at the level they did last year because last year everything went right for them.
We start with the fact that their record last year outperformed their score differential more than any other team in the league as their Pythagorean Wins came in at 12.1. Essentially this means they outperformed their expected results by 2.9 wins. Only 1 other team in the league had a difference of more than 2 and that was the Broncos.
We discussed the Toxic ratio and while the big play differential maybe repeatable, it is absolutely unlikely that the Panthers enjoy the type of turnover differential in 2016 that they did in 2015. Carolina was +20 in turnovers, KC was next best at +14 which is just insane, think about the fact that Carolina was at +6 better than 2nd place team and exactly half of the league finished between +5 and -5. In 2014 the Panthers were +3 in turnovers and I think it is very reasonable to think they will swing back to a similar number which alone means their results will regress.
The Panthers also enjoyed some of the best luck in terms of injuries in 2015, in Football Outsiders Adjusted Games Lost metric the Panthers were the 4th healthiest team in 2015 and the 6th healthiest in 2014. Maybe they have great doctors and trainers but I would be surprised to see that trend continue in ’16.
Finally, the Panthers were great in close games which I guess is no surprise when you finish 15-1, Carolina was 7-1 in one score games.
Finally there will be major impact early from the fact that Carolina is expected to start rookie corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley in place of Josh Norman who was rated as the top cornerback in the league by PFF. Sometimes we can as fans overrate player departures but the gap here seems to be enormous and even if they become quality NFL starters it probably will take most of the season to get there. (more…)
I will have a couple of posts this week before the week 1 picks that help preview the 2016 season. For team by team previews they are far better places to get that type of info, basically start from Bill Barnwell and Aaron Schatz and work from their. My focus will be on early season betting, this is the first post with teams to look to bet on early in the season (4-5) weeks, tomorrow I will do one with the top teams to fade.
One thing I want to mention, there is a lot of talk in these posts about luck, for whatever reason I think too many people that cover sports don’t like attributing results to luck or randomness. It’s why we hear so much about things like ‘team chemistry’ and ‘leadership’ used to explain results that don’t make sense statistically.
In terms of football, I believe for the most part, 1) turnovers 2) close game results 3) injuries are all reliant mostly on luck/randomness, and the data shows we see major swings year to year in all three of these, where teams usually regress to the mean.
Now there are certainly cases where some QBs have proven to be better at avoiding Int’s (Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers) or more prone to throwing them and some players may be more injury prone but those cases are the exceptions. So many turnovers are based on luck; fumble recoveries is almost all random, tipped balls, dropped Ints vs a receiver falling and causing an interception totally random.
These posts obviously come with some major caveats; the point of the post isn’t to say these are teams that you should be blindly bet on or against but rather teams I think will be undervalued in the betting market and teams that will be overvalued. Most of this is based on the perceptions I think majority of bettors will have based on last season and the offseason’s of these teams. And things can change quickly, so three weeks in I may have a very different opinion on some of these teams but for now I feel good about these teams below offering value in 2016.
Dallas Cowboys
2015 Review
Coming into training camp I felt like it was wrong to infer very much from the 2015 numbers on offense for the Cowboys because of the Romo injury in ’15. Tony Romo played only 4 games and the QB play behind him was amongst the worse in the league. Dallas ranked 31st in offensive DVOA, giveaways and passer rating (not the triple crown you want), this after finishing the 2014 season 5th in DVOA and 8th in passer rating with Tony Romo at the helm.
The defense finished in the bottom 3rd again in 2015 season but the big difference between ’14 and ’15 was turnovers. In 2014 Dallas was 5th in takeaways and in 2015 finished dead last with just 11. Generally turnovers regress towards the mean, there may be something to playing a lot more from behind in 2015 but I think it’s fair to expect them to be somewhere in the middle of 2014 and 2015 takeaway totals.
Early Season Betting: Bet On
Even though the roster to start the year is depleted and worse off than last year (Romo Injury, McClain, Gregory and Lawrence suspensions) I do think there will be value in betting the Cowboys early in the year. My big reason to bet to Cowboys early is I think there will be an overreaction to the Romo injury based on last year, where the whole season fell apart. Bettors will look to fade them based on ow ugly 2015 got and oddsmakers will have to offer a little extra to get Dallas money.
While losing Romo for half the season is a huge blow, I do not think the QB play this season will be as bad as last year where Matt Cassel had a QBR of 33.7 and Kellen Moore had one of 19.0. That’s an impossibly low bar to beat and I can’t see Prescott or Sanchez being quite that bad. The Cowboys feel very good about the rookie Prescott and while he is likely to regress once the real season begins the fact that they have had almost all of the preseason to prepare an offense sans Romo is a big advantage over last year. I also think having Sanchez on the roster is quality insurance and I think both guys are improvements over last years crew.
Secondly Dallas was a really unlucky team last year. The biggest swing in luck we can expect is turnovers. The Cowboys finished -22 in turnovers last year which was dead last, that alone moving towards the median should make them much more competitive. Remember in 2014 the Cowboys finished +6 and on defense had 25 takeaways compared to just 11 in 2014. The Cowboys were also unlucky in close games, last year they finished 2-6 in 1 score games, again these things tend to swing back year over year so they should be able to win some more of those.
As the last minutes of the Superbowl winded down I had the feeling of sadness come over me. Not because I particularly cared about which team won, outside of my bet I didn’t, or because I was sad about the season ending because at this point I am ready for a a few months without football. What caused my sadness was knowing that this was probably going to be the best gambling season of my life and that it seems very unlikely I will ever have a year this good again. The final numbers are crazy, 60% is considered a great season and this year ended way over that, its all down hill from here.
Superbowl: 1-0
2016 NFL Playoffs including SB: 6-2
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
2015-16 NFL Season Overall (Playoffs and Reg Season): 63-37-3 or 63%
Superbowl 50 Review
Car – Den: A couple of notes about betting from the week. I said in the SB post that the unders were clearly the best bets at the open and the sharps hit those numbers hard, driving the number down from 46 to 43.5 and the 1st half under below 23. Not only did the sharps win with their numbers but any number you got would have cashed. The first half under cashed despite the fact we had a defensive TD by the Broncos and another score set up by a huge punt return. I hear a number of sharps say they bet under 23 1st half at the Superbowl blindly and it makes sense when you think about all that goes on pre game. Next year I will look for that number as well.
As far as the game, we once again saw how elite defensive teams will always be undervalued when compared to elite offensive teams. Here we got the #1 defensive team by quite a margin getting way more than a FG and we still saw over 60%of bets on the Panthers. The Broncos won the way they had all year, they got to the QB. Broncos got 13 QB hits and 7 Sacks on Cam Newton and produced the games biggest play a fumble on a sack that was returned for a TD. Playing with a lead was so crucial in the game for the Broncos because it allowed them to stay conservative on offense and not have to take ay chances, they simply didn’t have the offense to come back on a defense as good as the Panthers.
Cam Newton and the Panthers had a truly remarkable year, the criticism he took afterwards was nonsense, I don;t see why anyone would be surprised that he would be upset or not want to talk about losing the biggest game of his life a game where he had to be disappointed with not only the result but his own play. This was just a very difficult matchup and I think the nerves of being in the biggest spot got the best of not only Cam but also the coaching staff. It happens. Still a fantastic season by a great, great player.
**I was able to cash the one prop bet I posted CJ Anderson over 1.5 receptions but I was most upset about losing a prop bet I didn’t post which was ” Would Jay-Z be apart of the halftime show? YES” I have no idea how he wasn’t there, I was so god damn mad, he has songs with Beyonce and Coldplay, this was Superbowl 50 so it seemed like a sure thing we would see some special guests and I thought for sure he would be apart of it. Cot Damn.On the bright side we did get plenty of ‘Yonce
I wish I had a stronger feeling about this Superbowl today than I do, this isn’t the game of the year or some 5 star pick, I feel about as confident in this one as I did in some random Jags – Titans game in November. It’s clear to me today that the best bet on the board was the under on the opening number of 46 and maybe even better was the under on the 1st half of 23. Neither of those are available anymore but maybe we get some opportunities in live betting. With that said I am going to pick a side, so here is the big reveal.
2015 Playoffs: 5-2
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
Superbowl 50: Den +6 vs Car: ( 5.5’s still around)
Bet% Den 38% Car 62%
Well I feel today the same as I felt when the conference finals ended, Carolina is the better team and I think they win the game but I think the Broncos make the game tough and it’s a close FGish type game. So with that comes the struggle of if you think the panthers are going to win, generally, the spread in the Superbowl doesn’t matter, when favorites win they cover and when under dogs win they usually win straight up so just pick the winner. I still like the points here for a few reasons.
-Public Perception: These 2 teams could not have looked any more different in their playoff wins this year. The Panthers blew out Seattle in the 1st half and destroyed the Cards. The Broncos one very close margin games where the offense struggled to look good in either win and they needed to hold on right to the end. We have a 60/40 split in betting percentage here on Sunday but last week that number was closer to 70/30. Great Defensive teams with average or below average teams are always going to be undervalued because they win ‘ugly’.
Late Money: All the early money and bets were on the Panthers, the line was around 6 for a few days and looked like it might get to 6.5 but we saw major money at that point and then the 6’s started to go away. I jumped in around Thursday as it was clear 6 was the best the number would get to unless we saw major money on Sunday on Panthers. Well that didn’t happen and we have seen the opposite, late money has been on the Broncos and the number has dropped to 5 and even 4.5 at some points.
Low Total: With a total of 43.5/44 we are expecting a low scoring game which works into the favor of the Bronco’s, both of the Broncos playoff games had low totals and the margin ended below a TD. I don’t see any chance of a game like last week where the Cards imploded with turnovers because I don’t think Kubiak has any intention of putting this game in Manning’s hands and saying go throw it 50 times. That being said I think the extra week of rest does help Manning, he will be needed to make some plays to whichever WR of Thomas or Sanders doesn’t have Norman on him and the extra rest should help those throws.
The Broncos have the #1 DVOA defense (-25.8%) while the Panthers are #2 (-18.4%) although in weighted DVOA they were 5th so they did drop a bit end of year for what that’s worth. To give context of just how good Denver was on defense this year, if we look at overall numbers the Panthers #2 defense is closer to the #6 Chiefs at 11.4% than the #1 Broncos.
It’s obvious that of the 4 units on offense and defense in this game that Bronco’s offense is the weakest but that is not something this new, the Broncos were undefeated at one point this year with the worst avg passer rating in the league. The point is that the poor offense didn’t stop the Broncos from winning 13 games in the reg season and 2 more in the playoffs and I don’t expect it to all of a sudden stop them from being competitive here in the Superbowl.
Player Prop Bet
** I have also made a few prop bets, most not worth mentioning but I do really like is the OVER on total receptions for CJ Anderson which is set at 1.5
The blowout in the Panthers Cards game certainly caught me off guard but the number of points scored wasn’t and neither was the great performance by the #1 defense of the Broncos. The conference championships are the last weekend for hardcore football fans before the Superbowl gets hijacked and it couldn’t have gone any better than 2-0.
Conference Finals: 2-0
2015 Playoffs: 5-2
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
Conference Final Results
NE @ Den: Denver had one of their best defensive performances of the season, they had 24 pressure plays including 17 QB Hits. NE’s lack of running game allowed Denver to focus on the pass but in a major new wrinkle they did it without blitzing, as the Broncos brought 4 or less rushers at the highest levels all year which certainly caught the Patriots by surprise.
Ari @ Car: I thought the offenses would have a big game here but obviously didn’t expect to see it so one sided. I don’t know what you can take from a game that has a team turn the ball over 7 times the way Arizona did, up until the fumble on the punt return by Patick Peterson it looked like a competitive game but one that happened it just seemed to start an avalanche.
This weekend would have been a lot more exciting and fun for me had the Steelers or Seahawks made it and kept one of my futures alive, as it is I think we have to pretty interesting games where the public definitely likes the favorites. This is the last time we will see Manning v Brady in a truly meaningful game and even though I get as tired as everyone else of the media constantly fawning over both of them, it does seem fitting that it would end this way for one of the greatest rivalries.
2015 Playoffs: 3-2
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
Game 1: NE @ Den +3.5
Bet% NE 74% Den 26%
Note- I got +3.5 at -115, the line has bounced around all week between the 3 and 3.5 and I would suggest buying the hook has value even at -120 or -125 if necessary but I think it is pretty widely available at -120.
It’s been really interesting how unanimous everyone (fans,media) have been that NE is going to the Superbowl and that the Broncos do not have much of a chance here. We see 75% of the bets on a road fav of a full FG or a little more depending on the juice.
First lets just look at the line. Last week the Patriots were 4.5 to 5 point favorites vs KC at home, if we give 3 pts for home field that means the Pats were 1.5-2 pt favorites over KC on a neutral field. Here, we have NE as a 3 pt fav on the road, so if we give Denver 3 points for home-field, and I think Denver has one of the truest home-field advantages with the elevation, then this line makes NE 6 point favs over Denver on a neutral and makes KC 4-4.5 points better than Den. All of which seems way off.
Betting lines in the playoffs are certainly different than the regular season and I get why this number has to be here with so much public money but there certainly is value. I also think that defensive teams will always be undervalued. Denver was the #1 defense by a pretty large margin but because there were games like the Patriots game, like the Steelers game where they gave up a lot of points, the narrative becomes that they aren’t really that good. Its funny, because if a great offensive team has a down game, we are usually very eager to throw those games out as an outlier.
In the end this is simply a bet against the consensus view, we get the best defensive team in the NFL, at home, with 3.5 points while the fav has 75% of bets. It just seems too easy to look at the game as Brady vs Manning’s corpse and Belicheck vs Kubiak and say how can you not bet the Patriots?
Game 2: Ari @ Car Over 47
Bet% Over 70% Under 30%
I think the line here is pretty much right on but think there is some value on he total. We have the 2 highest scoring teams in the league from the regular season, both teams averaged over 30 points per game, coming off of games where they both felt they weren’t aggressive enough.
The Panthers put up all 31 of their points last week in the first half and then spent he second half just holding on. Cam Newton has been very vocal this week to his coaches and the media about that being a mistake and needing to be aggressive for the full 60 minutes.
In Arizona, Bruce Arians had his own mea culpa as he admitted to being very safe in the GB game last week and that playing that way was out of character. I think Arians wanted to not put the game on Carson Palmer who had come into last week with 0 playoffs wins and that clearly was weighing heavy on him. Now with a win under his belt I expect Palmer and Arians to loosen the reins and have a game plan more in line with what we saw all season.
Both teams have excelled in big plays this season, Car ranked 4th in Big Play percentage (8.96% of total plays were passes of 20 yards or more or rushes of 10 yards or more) and the Cardinals were 10th at 8.17%. I think those plays become extra important in the playoffs when the games get tighter and long drives become more and more difficult.
The Panthers were the best redzone team in 2015 (scoring TDs on 69% of RZ trips) and as the favorite I think they will set the pace for the Cardinals who finished 10th in RZ TD% at 59.4%. I also think the field conditions will only help the over, we saw numerous players slipping and giving up big plays last week, with the huge storm this weekend the turf should be even tougher to handle for DBs.
I think the Panthers will win a close one but regardless of who wins I think the winner will score at least 30 and get this total comfortably over 47.
Was a Rodgers hail mary away from a 1-1-1 Week, that game and that play swung the weekend to a loser. The Hail Mary, the Car- Sea game, the fumble in Pittsburgh it was a wild weekend and in almost every one of those crazy plays games I came out on the wrong end as not only did I go 1-2 on the weekend but also lost both teams I had futures on to win the conference and SB.
RIP Steelers and Seahawks Futures. RIP
Div Round: 1-2
2015 Playoffs: 3-2
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
Div Rd Results
KC @ NE: This game really went to form, a late score from KC ,made the game 1 score but they took so much time on final drive it would have taken a miracle. I love Andy Reid and think he does 90% of the job as well as anyone but the clock management issues have gone on forever and this game was another in a long line.
GB @ Ari: Would have a had a push if not for Rodgers Hail Mary but I think more interesting is this was the 2nd playoff game where we saw a rematch of reg season game that the favorite had blown out the under dog. In both games, Sea-Min and GB-Ari the rematch played very differently and both underdogs had a chance to win the game. Something to keep in mind for next year.
Sea @ Car: Call me crazy but I still feel like Seattle was the best team of 2015. That first big run by Jonathan Stewart with guys slipping all over the field should never happen, they had hours of working on the field before the game and should have know which cleats they needed. After Russel Wilson’s pick 6, its amazing that a team that went to 2 straight SBs panicked but they all did, Wilson, the defense and Pete Carrol. By the time they got it back together at half time it was too late. The Panthers took advantage of every opportunity and are full marks for their victory.
The Divisonal round is my favorite weekend of the playoffs, and next to opening week my favorite week of the NFL season. The Superbowl gets hijacked by non-football media/fans, the conference finals is only 2 games but the divisional round year after year offers some of the most interesting matchups.
Injuries play a major role in this years divisional round and have taken some of the lustre off a couple of the games but I think we do have some good matchups to bet.
We had a couple of crazy finishes in the Seattle and Pittsburgh games last week and an interesting narrative has formed around the Seahawks about them being lucky to be here. They were certainly lucky to get out of Minnesota with a win after Blair Walsh missed the game winning FG but lots of championship teams have escaped games they should have lost with a lucky break, . I have Seattle has the best team in the league and very comparable to the last 2 Seattle teams that went to the Superbowl
2015 Playoffs: 2-0
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
Game 1: Sea +2.5 @ Car
Bet% Sea 31% Car 69%
I think this is a matchup of the best 2 teams in the NFL this season but Seattle is #1 and the Panthers are #2 and getting the best team in the league plus points is reason enough to make the play here.
Seattle was extremely lucky to get out of Minnesota last week but Seattle is still the best team in the NFL and this years team is very comparable with the last 2 years.
I give the Seahawks a pass for last week’s game because of the very difficult conditions. Not only was it one of the coldest days in NFL history, it was an early start for the PST Seahawks and they were also playing a team they had just dismantled in Week 13 (38-7). I put much of the poor performance on the cold, there were seemingly a number of opportunities for big plays down the field for Russell Wilson where we saw the ball just hang in the air. Neither team was able to do much on offense but unlike the Vikings Seattle had a number of opportunities that they just couldn’t cash
Being lucky to win that game is different than being lucky to be here. Seattle got off to a slow start this season 2-4 and struggled to find their way on offense and defense due to a number of factors including Cam Chancellor holding out, wholesale changes on the offensive line, and starting Cary Williams at CB. Seattle also underwent a change in offensive philosophy partly due to personnel (Marshawn Lynch being hobbled, addition of Jimmy Graham) as well as Russell Wilsons growth as a passer.
Through 6 Weeks, Seattle was 2-4, 12th in offensive DVOA, 12th in defensive DVOA, they probably deserved better than 4 losses but look how the final 10 games compare with the first 6.
In the last 10 games we saw Seattle play as well as they have at any point of this dominant 4 year run since Russell Wilson has been there and it places this years team amongst the last 2 teams that made the Super Bowl.
The SB winning 2013 team was one of the best defensive teams of the last decade and this team is not playing at that level but we see that offensively this team is much more efficient and like that team, this years team is dominant in all 3 phases. What stands out to me is that over the last 10 games the 2015 team has a point differential that’s 2 full points better than the 2013 team. The Seahawks of 2015 look different and win differently then the last 2 years but they are actually equally as great. If they miss out on the Superbowl this year it will be because the 1st 6 games set them up for a very difficult road (@ Min, @ Car, @ Ari) not because they finished the year as a lesser team.
Carolina is a great team and they beat Seattle in week 6 in Seattle so they are certainly capable of winning this game. The Panthers finished 4th overall in DVOA and 3rd in weighted DVOA ( Seattle finished 1st in both, Cam Newton is the MVP and I love the fact that they lead the league in big play differential.
In a lot of ways this game could be similar to 2012 when the 11-5 Seahawks were #1 in DVOA but had to play @ the 13-3 Falcons and lost 30-28. If the Panthers win I will be on them next week vs Arizona but this is the one team I don’t think they are better than.
I don’t think Carolina has a great home field and the conditions should be about a 1000 times better for Seattle than last week. We saw 4 road teams win last week and I expect Seattle to continue the trend here.
Game 2: GB @ Ari -7
Bet% GB 39% Ari 61%
It’s interesting what a difference a week makes. The Packers were 1 point underdogs going into Washington last week and most of the talk going into that game was about”Whats wrong with Aaron Rodgers”. Now after a 35-18 win most of the talk has been about the Packers righting the ship and possibly making a run in the playoffs. Have they righted the ship?
I was on the Packers last week and the reason for that was that they were facing the #22 pass defense ( 22nd in opp avg passer rating 95.7, 22nd in opp yards per pass att 7.2) and the 30th ranked run defense (4.8 yards per rush). They put up 35 points but Rodgers wasn’t especially great as he passed for only 210 yards on 36 pass attempts, it was really the run game that carried the offense with 141 yards and 2 TDs.
The Packers offense faces a much more difficult defense this week, the Cards finished 3rd in Defensive DVOA and were in the top 10 in yards per pass att and yards per rush att. One of the major problems the Packers have had is protecting Rodgers, Rodgers was sacked on 7.4% of pass plays (24th) on the season but in their last 3 games he was sacked at an even higher percentage 11.2%. In their week 2 game the Cards sacked Rodgers 8 times so they will definitely be looking to take advantage of the Packers line again in this game.
Arizona has been one of the best offensive teams all year, 4th in offensive DVOA, 1st in Points Scored (32/Game) and 2nd overall in point differential +176., +131 better than the Packers who finished +45 on the season
A lot has been made about the injury to Tyrann Mathieu and it it is a big one but this week i think the impact is negated due to the packers injury of Devante Adams. Adams has been a disappointment this year but he is still the Packers best outside threat and without him the Packers really do’t have anyone the Cards have to worry about getting deep. I think his is a near perfect matchup for the Cardinals this week and expect them to win by at least double digits.
Game 3: KC @NE -4.5
Bet% KC 46% NE 54%
There is not a lot to write on this one, I love Andy Reid, so much of what I know and think about the NFL was shaped by Andy and the decade plus he spent in Philadelphia. This has been a fantastic coaching job this year, starting 1-5, losing Jamal Charles and then winning 11 in a row including last week in Hou is something nobody could have envisioned but I think they are just up against too much his week.
Last week the Chiefs played the Texans and had the game pretty much gift wrapped to them by Brian Hoyer who threw 4 interceptions in one of the worst playoff performances of all time. I’m not sure a team has faced a larger difference in the calibre of QBs from 1 playoff game to the next as the Chiefs will going from Hoyer to Brady
The Pats limped into the end of the year due almost entirely to injuries, Edleman, Gronk and 3/5ths of the offensive line missed parts or all of the last quarter of the season. I think those injuries and the late season swoon gives us value here and a cheaper than usual price to bet the Pats. The Pats are expected to have Gronk and Eddleman back this week while the Chiefs will be without Jeremy Maclin. Without Maclin I expect Bellicheck to do everything he can to stop the run and force KC to beat them through the air and I’m just not sure how they can do it.
In the official scorecard for Wildcard Weekend I went 2-0 but with both futures teams (Seattle, Pittsburgh) stealing victory from the grasps of sure defeat it felt very much like 4-0 and a reason to celebrate
2015 Playoffs: 2-0
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
Wild Card Weekend Results
Game 1: Pit @ Cin Under 45.5
This game never really was in doubt, the Steelers led 6-0 at half and 9-0 through 3 quarters. The Bengals in the first half managed only one drive of over 10 yards and the majority of their pass attempts and yards came in the 4th Q when they were down and in desperation mode. Even with 41 Attempts, McCarron couldn’t crack 200 passing yards.
The Bengals defense once again played the Steelers pass game tough holding them to 5.1 yards per pass and picking up 4 sacks. The Steelers did manage to run the ball well, 167 yards on 29 rushes, which helped the under as did he poor weather conditions. Nice to get an easy win.
Game 2: GB +1 @ Wash
This one didn’t start great as Wash got off to a 11 -0 lead which could have been worse had Desean got into the end zone on their 2nd scoring drive where they ended up settling for 3. Once the Packers got into the game they found plenty of opportunities to score vs the 21st ranked DVOA defense of Washington. Washington was 31st in yards per rush against giving up 4.8 per att and the Packers took advantage of that unit. GB rushed for 141 yards on 32 atts and helped keep the game manageable for the Rodgers and their pass game.
Full Wildcard Week Results
Lady Luck
Both the Steelers and Seahawks seemed by all accounts to be looking at 1st rd losses until having inexplicable plays go their way late in the games. The Steelers look too banged up to be able to go much further but we may look back at that missed 21 yard FG by in Minnesota as the major break that allowed Seattle to win the SB and cash our futures bet
I found this week’s games to be very difficult to get a beat on. All of the lines feel like they are right on and I don’t see a lot of value this week.
I think there is an impulse to think that once the playoffs start you should have a strong opinion on every game but I found myself going back and forth on every one of these wild card games. I plan on being very selective in the playoffs but I do think there may be some opportunities with in-game bets whether live or 2nd half bets or other exotics.
*Futures – Back in week 12 I bet futures on the Steelers and the Seahawks to win their conferences and win the Superbowl so I will obviously also be tracking those
2015 Reg Season ATS: 57-35-3
Game 1: Pit @ Cin Under 45.5
Bet%: Over 65% Under 35%
When these 2 teams played in Week 14, the total closed at 49 and the game finished over with a total of 53 yet this game opened up at 46 and has been dropping despite 65% of the bets on the over.
When we look at the differences obviously the injuries are big, Andy Daulton was hurt in that Week 14 game and as a result we have AJ McCarron starting for the Bengals this week. For the Steelers, they will be without DeAngelo Williams this week and will start undrafted Fitzgerald Trousant who has a total of 18 carries this year for 42 yards.
The Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but minus a credible run defense we should see the 6th rank Bengals Pass defense be able to slow down the Steelers. In week 14 the Bengals held Pittsburgh to 6.6 yards per pass att, in week 8 they held them to just 5 yards per pass att. *It should be noted that Week 8 game was Big Ben’s first game back from injury.
On the flip side, the weakness of the Steelers defense is their secondary, Steelers have given up 7.2 yards per pass att (24th) but I don’t see McCarron really being able to or even given the opportunity to take advantage. Below we see the way that McCarron has been used over the last 3 games and also how much the Bengals have used the run.
OPP
Pass yards
Pass Atts
Rush Atts
Week 15
@SF
174
21
36
Week 16
@Den
186
35
33
Week 17
Bal
147
27
27
While the Steelers pass defense is a weakness, I do not believe that Marvin Lewis and Hugh Jackson will feel comfortable using their back up QB as the focal point of their attack, they haven’t done it over the last 3 weeks and I don’t think they will here.
The Bengals run game averaged only 3.8 yards per rush but as we see above that didn’t stop the Bengals from using a run heavy offense with McCarron at QB. The Steelers run defense was very good over the season giving up only 3.8 yards per rush so I don’t see the Bengals offense having a very efficient game.
I do expect this game to be very close, so as long as it is close I don’t think we will see the Bengals take a lot of chances but rather try to shorten the game with the run and steal it late.
Game 2: GB +1 @ Wash
Bet% GB 50% Wash 50%
Washington is clearly the hotter team right now, they won their last 4 games of the season, 5 of the last 6 and finished 12th in Weighted DVOA (15th overall). The Packers lost their last 2 games, including the division showdown in week 17 vs the Vikings, lost 3 of their last 6 games overall and finished 19th in Weighted DVOA (10th Overall).
Complicating matters is the level of competition Washington played in their recent run. On the season, Washington beat 1 team that was .500 or better, the 8-8 Buffalo Bills. They played 3 teams that finished above .500, (NYJ,CAR, NE) they went 0-3 and lost by an average margin of 20 points
In the end I am going with GB because I think the matchup favours them and my hope is that the playoffs offer a bit of a reset for GB.
In a matchup of strength vs strength we have the WSH pass offense vs GB pass defense. Washington is led by their passing game, on the season they rank 6th in Avg Passer rating and 9th in yards per pass att (7.2) and both those numbers have trended up the last 6 weeks. Pass defense is the strength of the Packers defense, they rank 7th in avg opponent passer rating (81.3) and have been better than that in the last month. Washington is a very 1 dimensional offense as their run game produced only 3.6 yards per rush good for 29th overall so if the Packers pass defense can hold for they should be able to control the game.
The Packers pass offense has been well below levels we are used to seeing them play at, they are 30th in yards per pass attempt (6.1) but over the season they still rank 12th in passer rating.
The last 2 weeks the Packers pass game struggled vs the Vikings and Cardinals but both those pass defenses rank much higher than the 22nd ranked pass defense of Washington and both those teams can pressure the QB they rank 6th and 7th in total pressures. The Packers have struggled vs pass pressure all year, but Washington only ranks 23rd in pressure plays so Rodgers should have an opportunity to make plays vs the Washington secondary.
I know Washington is the hot team and the Packers looked terrible closing out the season but the Packers Pass defense is the strength of the team and Rodgers is facing a weak pass defense that doesn’t get a lot of pressure. This felt like the best value on the board.
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