I wish I had a stronger feeling about this Superbowl today than I do, this isn’t the game of the year or some 5 star pick, I feel about as confident in this one as I did in some random Jags – Titans game in November. It’s clear to me today that the best bet on the board was the under on the opening number of 46 and maybe even better was the under on the 1st half of 23. Neither of those are available anymore but maybe we get some opportunities in live betting. With that said I am going to pick a side, so here is the big reveal.
2015 Playoffs: 5-2
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
Superbowl 50: Den +6 vs Car: ( 5.5’s still around)
Bet% Den 38% Car 62%
Well I feel today the same as I felt when the conference finals ended, Carolina is the better team and I think they win the game but I think the Broncos make the game tough and it’s a close FGish type game. So with that comes the struggle of if you think the panthers are going to win, generally, the spread in the Superbowl doesn’t matter, when favorites win they cover and when under dogs win they usually win straight up so just pick the winner. I still like the points here for a few reasons.
-Public Perception: These 2 teams could not have looked any more different in their playoff wins this year. The Panthers blew out Seattle in the 1st half and destroyed the Cards. The Broncos one very close margin games where the offense struggled to look good in either win and they needed to hold on right to the end. We have a 60/40 split in betting percentage here on Sunday but last week that number was closer to 70/30. Great Defensive teams with average or below average teams are always going to be undervalued because they win ‘ugly’.
Late Money: All the early money and bets were on the Panthers, the line was around 6 for a few days and looked like it might get to 6.5 but we saw major money at that point and then the 6’s started to go away. I jumped in around Thursday as it was clear 6 was the best the number would get to unless we saw major money on Sunday on Panthers. Well that didn’t happen and we have seen the opposite, late money has been on the Broncos and the number has dropped to 5 and even 4.5 at some points.
Low Total: With a total of 43.5/44 we are expecting a low scoring game which works into the favor of the Bronco’s, both of the Broncos playoff games had low totals and the margin ended below a TD. I don’t see any chance of a game like last week where the Cards imploded with turnovers because I don’t think Kubiak has any intention of putting this game in Manning’s hands and saying go throw it 50 times. That being said I think the extra week of rest does help Manning, he will be needed to make some plays to whichever WR of Thomas or Sanders doesn’t have Norman on him and the extra rest should help those throws.
The Broncos have the #1 DVOA defense (-25.8%) while the Panthers are #2 (-18.4%) although in weighted DVOA they were 5th so they did drop a bit end of year for what that’s worth. To give context of just how good Denver was on defense this year, if we look at overall numbers the Panthers #2 defense is closer to the #6 Chiefs at 11.4% than the #1 Broncos.
It’s obvious that of the 4 units on offense and defense in this game that Bronco’s offense is the weakest but that is not something this new, the Broncos were undefeated at one point this year with the worst avg passer rating in the league. The point is that the poor offense didn’t stop the Broncos from winning 13 games in the reg season and 2 more in the playoffs and I don’t expect it to all of a sudden stop them from being competitive here in the Superbowl.
Player Prop Bet
** I have also made a few prop bets, most not worth mentioning but I do really like is the OVER on total receptions for CJ Anderson which is set at 1.5