Week 12 2020

LW: 7-1

2020- 33-35-1

After a season full of tough week after tough week, this was me on Sunday night.

Happy Black Girl GIF

Thanksgiving Thursday

Game 1: Hou @ Det Under 51.5

Bet% Over 60% Under 40%

Houston is very much an over team but some of the high scores they have had because they fell behind big and had to chase the game but that shouldn’t be the case here vs the Lions. They are also extremely one dimensional right now as Duke Johnson hasn’t been able to give them much so this should be a spot the Lions can gameplan pretty easily.

In the end this under is all about the Lions and what this offense looks like without Kenny Golliday. Last week the Lions were shutout by a very bad defense in Carolina, they scored 27 vs Washington but other than that game they only scored 20 vs the Vikings and 21 vs the Colts. Add to that the thumb injury Stafford is dealing with and the fact that Deandre Swift is also questionable and I think Detroit will do everything they can to slow this game down and keep it from becoming a shoot out.

Game 2: LAC @ Buf over 52.5

This is a bet that the Chargers game plan we saw last week is the one they continue with. Last week the Chargers passed on 70% of downs in neutral-situation plays and 68% of early downs. Anthony Lynn has been talking up Justin Herbert and it would make sense for him to tie himself to Herbert playing well as a way of making the case to stay on as head coach next week. The Chargers ran 78 plays last week which is exactly what we want to see for an over, they also gave up 28 points to the NY Jets and Joe Flacco.

The Bills pass at the 8th highest rate in neutral situation plays and after struggling on offense for a few weeks the last 2 games the Bills have scored 30 and 44. Coming off of a bye and that incredible loss on the hail mary to the Cards, this is a game the Bills are going to need and I don’t think they can count on the defense so I do see them looking to win with the passing game. The only thing that could keep this game under is weather but as of now that doesn’t seem to be an issue.

Game 3: Cle @ Jac Over 49

The average game total for an NFL game in 2020 is 49 so when you get a game open at that number it is a easy question of is this game likely to be higher scoring than the average game or lower. I think this number opened here because the Browns have played 3 straight low scoring games with totals of 22, 17 and 39 but all 3 of those games in Cleveland were severely impacted by weather. The passing games in those 3 games were severely limited by wind and rain and as a result we saw extremely low scores. In the 4 games played before that weather aided homestand, the Browns gave up 24,38, 32, 38 and once again this week they will be without there best player Myles Garret. On offense getting Nick Chubb back was big for them last week and this offense should have a much better time passing vs the Jags 30th ranked pass defense.

The Jags offensive situation is murkier, Mike Glennon is starting at QB, I don’t think it’s possible to downgrade from Luton. Last week vs the Steelers the Jags only scored 3 points but that was almost entirely because of how bad Luton, previous to that the Jags scored 20 vs the Packers, 25 vs the Texans and 29 vs the Chargers. The Jags will be missing Chark jr but I still think they are going to be able to score in this game against a defense that was giving up points to everyone before the rain and wind gods intervened.

Game 4: 2 team 6pt Teaser NE +8.5 & GB -8.5

Both of these lines are moving in my favor giving this teaser more value.

Arizona is flying across country to play the Patriots and earlier in the week Murray was limited in practice due to the shoulder injury he suffered last week. The Cardinals are a team that doesn’t really blow teams out, the nature of their games, the fact the defense doesn’t get a lot of pressure and that they are a run dominant offense makes for a lot of close games. In their last 4 games, the Cards went 2-2 vs Seattle, Miami, Buffalo and Seattle and the games were decided by 3,3,2 and 7. This is also a sandwich spot for Arizona, last week they played Seattle in a huge divsion game and next week they play the Rams. The Patriots seem to have their run game going the last couple of weeks and as a result the offense has gotten better. I don;t feel comfortable taking them with such a short line but think they can keep this game within the TD.

The Bears-Packers game has moved from 8.5 to 9.5 due to the QB news luckily I was able to get in before that move. The Packers should be able to win this game by a FG but if NE covers the first part and this line goes to 10 I will take the Bears and try to hit the middle and win both sides. If it stays here then the decision will be harder.

Game 5: LV @ Atl +3.5 (-113)

This is the contrarian play of the week, the Raiders played one of the most impressive games of the week last week on national tv while the Falcons played a terrible game vs Taysom Hill and the Saints. Every TV expert and every average bettor is going to be on the Raiders this week because this line looks too short for a team on the rise that just played 2 great games vs the Chiefs vs a team heading the wrong way.

For the Falcons, even though this season has not gone the way they would have wanted, previous to their bye they had won 3 of 4 games and the one loss was that crazy finish vs the Lions where Gurley scored when he should have gone down and the Lions scored with no time on the clock.

This just feels like the exact spot for an upset and I can certainly see the Falcons win this game straight up

Game 6: 2 Team Teaser Mia -1 @ NYJ & SF @ LAR -.5

I didn’t love the Miami side early in the week with Tua at QB but now with Fitzpatrick listed as the starter, I really like taking them in this teaser. Miami was a much more productive offense with Fitzpatrick at QB than they have been the last 3 weeks under Tua. I also like the fact that Miami lost last weekend in a game they were favored on the road. They had won 2 or 3 games they probably didn’t deserve and were due for a game that went the other way, The fact that we get Miami off of that game plus the QB change, I don’t see them losing this game to the Jets.

The Rams are coming off of one of their best wins of the year on MNF but also a short week as a result while the 49ers are off of a bye. The 49ers beat the Rams in the first game that seemed like an all in spot and while they ay stick around in this game I don’t see how they put up enough points to win against the #7 defense by DVOA this time. Losing to the 49ers twice in this division would be malpractice so I feel confident McVay doesn’t get beat twice by an inferior Shanahan team this year.

Week 11 Picks

LW: 2-5-1

2020- 26-34-1

TNF: Ari @ Sea -3

Last week I had planned to bet the Rams all week and ended up taking it off the card right at the end because that is just how this 2020 season has gone for me but the reason I liked them was that Seattle had just been criss crossing all over the country. This week they are back home after playing in LA, coming off of 3 straight losses, this is exactly the type of spot you want to back Russell Wilson.

Arizona on the other hand is coming off of a miracle win against the Bills after losing in Miami the week previous. These 2 teams played 2 weeks ago and the Seahawks were 3.5 pt favs in Arizona, now they are smaller favs at home. These 2 teams are pretty closely matched up but I think we are getting Seattle at their lowest spot we have had all year, home teams traditionally have done well at home and I think we see that again this week.

Game 2: 2 Team Teaser: GB +8.5 @ Ind & NE @ Hou + 8.5

The Packers are coming off of a very tough performance vs the Jags last week but weather played a major factor in that game and as a result I think this line is bigger than it should be. In this game the Packers will be bringing their #2 offense indoors on the turf and they will be fully healthy with all 3 WRs healthy, Aaron Jones back and David Bakhtiari back to 100%. The COlts are 4th in defensive DVOA and held up well vs the #3 Titans but the Titans offense has been on a slide and has not been anywhere near as explosive as GB. I think Packers have good shot of winning this game outright but taking them through the 3 and 7 is too good to pass up.

Adding Houston to this teaser is just taking advantage of a bad number. The Patriots should not be favored, last week they won straight up as 7 point dogs vs the Ravens in a game that had extreme weather and basically everything went wrong for Baltimore. As awful as this season has been for Houston they still have the best unit in this game with their offense and should not be 2 point dogs. Again getting chance to take them through the 3 and 7 too good to pass up.

Game 3: 2 team 6 point teaser: Phi +8.5 @ Cle & Pit -4.5 @ Jax

It’s hard to put money on the Eagles after last week but it is clear that money has come in on the Eagles because this line has moved from 3.5 to 2.5, moving through the key number of 3. Last week I liked Eagles partly because their offensive line was finally getting healthy and then at kickoff it was announced that both expected starters at guard were out. This week the Eagles should have that offensive line we expected and generally this team has bounced back after really bad games under Doug Pederson. We saw that in the SF game in week 3 and I can see it again here.

I will likely be taking the Steelers side as this line should be closer to 13 than 10. The Jags were in it last week vs the Packers but got lucky with the weather and really the score didn’t reflect the play. The Packers outgained the Jags 395 to 260, GB averaged 9 yards per pass and if it wasn’t for a big special teams TD the Packers would have won by double digits even in those terrible conditions. The Steelers are better than the Packers and the conditions should be much better than last week, I don’t see how the Jags keep this close. While not as valuable teasing through 7 and 3, teasing through 10 and 7.

Game 4: Mia @ Den Under 46

Miami is averaging 30 ppg over the last 3 since Tua took over at QB and I think that is why this total is as high it is. Those scores have been greatly enhanced by 2 defensive TDs and a score set up by a blocked punt last week deep in Chargers territory. while I think the Dolphins offense is being overrated their defense deserves all of the credit they are getting. Now up to 13th in DVOA the Miami defense has been full marks for their recent winning streak and I expect them to be dominant this week vs the Bronco’s last placed offense. The Broncos after the 4 interception game by Drew Lock is probably coming in with a much more conservative game plan so I can see a slowed down pace and lot’s of running.

Game 5: Dal +7 @ Min

Bet% 48% 52%

I am following the money a bit here, this game opened up at 9 and even though tickets have been split basically 50/50 this game has dropped all the way to 7. Dallas is coming off of a bye and getting Andy Daulton back so this seems like a very good spot for Dallas to be competitive. Dallas played their best game since the Prescott injury before the bye vs the Steelers and the hope here is that coming out of the bye they again come with a game plan that takes some risks and the defense improves at least to the point that it is not just bleeding big plays.

The Vikings have been better the last 3 weeks with all 3 games in the division, maybe playing their first game out of the NFC North in a month creates a bit of a down spot for them. While it’s easy to feel like they have turned the corner it is important to remember that just 3 weeks ago they were blown out by Atlanta 40-23.

Game 6: KC -7 @ LV

Bet% KC 59% LV 41%

This is the chalk play of the week. There is the obvious narratives that will come up with Andy Reid after a bye and the revenge factor after the Raiders gave KC their first and only loss of the year. I like KC because this Raiders defense which is in the bottom 3rd has been once again impacted by Covid protocols and have not been able to practice. Maybe you can get away with that situation against some teams but I don’t see how they hold up against KC. Oakland also has some big injuries on defense, they will be without Cleland ferrell who is one of 4 defensive lineman that are questionable this week.

Game 7 & 8: Pit -6.5 1H and Pit -10 full game @ Jac

I made the case above in the teaser of why I think the Jags game last week was more one sided than the score indicated and as a result this line is shorter than it should be. But to take it a step further, Jake Luton has played 2 games the first against Houston who is a bottom 5 defense and last week vs the packers who are league average but they were missing starters in the secondary. The Steelers defense is a major step up for the rookie back up QB and I don’t see how he survives this game without a couple of turnovers. I see the Steelers getting their work done early in this game with Thanksgiving and the Ravens on deck on Thursday so I am betting them both first half and full game.

Week 10 2020

LW : 4-3

2020- 24-29-1

Game 1: Hou @ Cle -3

Bet% Hou 45% Cle 55%

This was the first bet I made this week as I was pretty sure that it wasn’t going to stay at 3 though I still like the Browns even at the current 4s out there. The Texans have won 2 games this year and both are against the Jags. In their defense Houston did start with a very difficult schedule starting with Chiefs, Steelers and Ravens and also playing the Packers. The issue I think is that one they weren’t really in any of those games outside of the Steelers and now with the position they are in which is outside the playoff run and under an interm coach who has no chance of being a head coach again this seems like a lost season.

Matchup wise this is a great spot for the Browns, coming off of a bye the Browns get Nick Chubb back and now face the #28 DVOA run defense in Houston. This is expected to be a cold and rainy game so it plays perfectly into the Browns big matchup advantage with their #10 run offense.

Game 2: Phi -4 @ NYG

Bet% Phi 53% NYG 47%

I missed this at 3.5 because I thought there was a good chance that Giants money would come in and drop it to 3 but that never happened and money has continued to come in on Philly, a move I obviously agree with. These teams played 2 weeks ago in a game where the Eagles were opened around this same number and got bet up and the Giants covered and were in position to win straight up, so why take Philly here?

If we go back to that TNF game, Philly was coming off a brutal 3 game stretch where they flew across country to play SF, then on the road in Pittsburgh and back home to play the Ravens before playing Giants in that TNF game. This week we get Philly off of a bye and the really big news is that they are getting healthy for the first time in forever. I think you can make the case that this is the healthiest the Eagles offense has been since week 1 2019. At the skill positions the Eagles will have Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey back giving them the best 4 WR (Fulgham, Reagor, Ward, Alshon) Wentz has had all year and really 2 years. Sanders is back and at TE Goddart should be 100% after returning week 8. The Eagles will also be getting there LG Isaac Seumalo meaning the Eagles will have 4/5s of their starting lineup they would have had coming into the year.

Both from a schedule and injury/health scenerio this is a great spot for Eagles and it really comes down to Carson Wentz. Wentz has been a bottom 5 QB this year and if you believe that continues then the Giants are an easy take here. I see Wentz regressing back to a top 12 QB and benefiting from a much better cast around him should be a major help. I like the Eagles by a TD here.

Game 3: Was +3.5 (-115) @ Det

Bet% Was 44% Det 56%

Washington has been playing really tough the last few weeks but because they games were against fellow NFC East teams and nobody really considers them tough competition. Washington has been incredible on defense this year, they #5 in DVOA overall and #1 vs the pass which is why I think they have a very good shot at winning this game straight up. because I see the Lions pass game really struggling here.

The Lions have just been a much different offense in the games Kenny Golliday misses, last week against poor pass defense in Minnesota, Stafford had miserable day with 211 pass yards and 2 INTs. This Washington pass defense should be able to get pressure, the Lions offensive line is 21st in ASR while Washington is #1 in adjust sack rate.

Game 6: TB -5.5 @ Car

Bet% TB 62% Car 48%

Last week TB was the #1 DVOA team and went on to play one of the single worst games any team has played all season. I think had TB played anywhere near what was expected this line would have been at least 7 and if they won it would have been TD plus. The Panthers have been much better than expected this year, they are currently 16th in DVOA and at 5-4 ATS are a very popular underdog.

This just feels like a get right spot for the Bucs, Brady is coming off of one of his worst games of his career gets the 26th ranked Panthers defense but maybe most importantly the Panthers are a team that does not generate pressure, they are 26th in adjusted sack rate at just 4.5%. While its a great schedule spot for the Bucs it feels the opposite for the Panthers as they are coming off a great performance in KC last week, a game they were in the whole way and led most of the way and now have to get right back and play an embarrassed Bucs team.

Game 5: Cin +7 @ Pit

Bet% Cin 53% Pit 47%

Definitely missed the best of this number as it opened at 9 then went off the board most of the week and came back at 7.5 which I also didn’t get in at. It just seems like the Steelers play to the level of their competition and I don’t think the near loss last week to the Cowboys is going to shake them out of it the way a straight up loss woud have..

Roethlisberger will play this week after not being able to practice due to Covid. We have seen teams have varying results in this situation, some have handled better than others but not having your QB available at practice does seem like reasonable disadvantage.

The Bengals have been great on this spot as underdogs, despit only winning 2 games this year they are 6-2 ATS. In the end this is just about the number and following the money. This line has been dropping from the open and even went through the 7 at some of the sharper books so getting the 7 here is worth taking and hoping for another lackluster effort from the Steelers against a clearly inferior team.

Game 6: SF +10 @ NO

Bet% SF 47% NO 53%

This is the flip side of the bet above where I am taking the Bucs off of one of the worst losses of the season, here I am fading the Saints off of one of the single best performances of the year. There are no stats or numbers that are going to help make the case to take the 49ers here, the Saints are the #1 team by DVOA and look every bit of the Superbowl contender they were tagged at to start the year. The 49ers are actually better by DVOA then you would think at #15 which is why this line feels too much to me. Even with all the injuries SF is not the Jets or Jags they still have a lot of talent on the team and one of the best coaches in the league.

In the end I am just fading the Saints here, coming off of that dominant win on national TV vs the Bucs last week, this feels like a natural down spot and it wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers are in this game the whole way.

Game 7: Den @ Oak Over 51

Bet% Over 62% Under 48%

Las Vegas is best over team in the league, they are 6-1-1 to the over, they are in the top 10 in scoring 27.2 PPG and in the bottom 10 in scoring defense giving up 28.2 PPG. Denver has the reputation of being a defensive team but this year while they are top 10 in DVOA they are also giving up 27.1 points per game and as a result have been an underrated over team with 5 overs to 3 unders.

I think there are a couple of scenarios that lead this game to the over, the first is a back and forth game where both offenses have success and we see a game with both teams in the 30’s. The other is a game scenario that we have seen the last few weeks for the Bronco’s which is they fall behind early and make a furious comeback late and as a result push the game over that way.

Game 8: 2 team 6 pt teaser LAC +1.5 @ Mia & Min @ Chi +8.5

The Chargers continue week after week to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory including last week when I was on them against the Raiders and they had 2 shots to win the game at the end and dropped both in excruciating fashion. This is probably the spot they win straight up but I am not strong enough to lose with them 2 weeks in a row so I love taking them through the 3 and 7 here. Miami is 2-0 with Tua at QB but have benefited from defensive TDs boh of those games. If we dig into the boxscores, last week Miami was outgained by 130 yards, the week before vs the Rams they were outgained by an amazing 325 yards. Not exactly a recipe for sustained success.

I like the Bears on MNF but again taking them through the 3 and 7 is really attractive here. The Vikings have had 2 straight wins behind Dalvin Cook dominating but the Bears are one of the leagues best run defenses at #7 in DVOA and I can see Nick Foles have success against this Vikings defense.

Week 9 Picks 2020

LW 4-2

2020- 20-26-1

Game 1: 2 Team Teaser GB -1.5 @ SF & Hou -1 @ Jac

Didn’t get a chance to post this before the TNF game but used GB in a teaser with Houston. The 49ers were so ravaged with injuries and with GB coming off of a bad loss this seemed like a spot where it was a good enough bet to expect them to just win. Money did come in on SF and Shanahan has owed the Packers but there was just too many pieces missing from that offense.

The Texans are in a similar position as the Packers. On the road playing a team missing their starting QB. The Jags have looked every part of being a bottom 3 team after that surprise week 1 win. The Texans are too far gone to make a run for the playoffs but a lot of their struggles this year are due to an impossibly difficult schedule. The Texans have played the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Packers who rank #2, #3, #4 and #8 in DVOA. In their first meeting with the Jags, Houston won 30-14 I don;t see them losing here to a QB named Luton.

Game 2: Chi +6.5 (Waiting to see if a 7 shows up) @ Ten

Bet% Chi 50% Ten 50%

The Titans are a team that I think continues to be over rated by the market, I think based mostly on last years performance and wins early this year over poor competition. The Titans are 4-2, their first 3 wins early came against the Bronco’s, Vikings and Jags and were by a combined 6 points. Then after an impressive win vs the Bills, they won a miracle OT game vs the Texans and then lost to the Steelers and Bengals. That is not the type of team that should be favored by a TD against a Bears team that as flawed as they are on offense is still a top 10 defense.

The Bears are probably as equally undeserving of their 5-3 record as the Titans are of their 5-2 record but the Bears have not been getting priced as an top tier team by oddsmakers the way Tennessee has. The Bears have not been great on offense but I do see this game being a bit of a get right spot for Nick Foles.

Game 3: 2 team Teaser NYG +8.5 @ Was & Mia +10.5 @ Ari

The Giants have played tough the last few weeks and easily could have won in Philly and on MNF vs TB. Washington has been equally competitive the last few weeks and have been getting especially good performances from their defense. To e this game should have just been a pick, I don’t see how you can make a case that either team is 2 or 3 points better but at +2.5 it makes the Giants the perfect teaser candidate as we can take them through the 3 and 7 and then add to it that this is one of the lowest totals on the board and it is a no brainer play.

Miami is actually rated higher in DVOA than the Cardinals although the 21st rated offense is due to Ryan Fitzpatrick and until we see Tua play at a simlar level we have to downgrade them on offense. Where we don’t have to downgrade is on defense, Miami is ranked 11th overall though 32 vs the run. The Cardinals have struggled against good defenses this year and I think we get a better game out of Tua so taking his game through the 7 and 10 makes the Dolphins very attractive in this teaser.

Game 4: Car +10.5 @ KC

Bet% Car 42% KC 68%

It’s never fun betting against the Chiefs but this feels like a bit of a down spot of the schedule for the Chiefs and the Panthers are good enough to stick around in this game if given the opportunity. The Chiefs have been playing easy, meaningless games for about a month now, they are coming off of an easy win vs the Jets and the week previous they covered double digits vs the Broncos but got a KO return TD and an interception return TD to give them the ATS win. Next week the Chiefs are going into a bye, we know Andy Reid is great out of byes and they are playing the Raiders who beat them a few weeks ago. I don’t think the Chiefs are looking ahead to the Raiders but I can see them looking past this game to a well deserved bye week.

The Panthers are going to get Christian McCaffrey back and while I think they have proven over the last 6 weeks that it is better for an offense to be more diverse and built around the pass than a star RB, in this game McCaffrey is coming back just in time. The Chiefs have become a very good pass defense, 7th in DVOA but against the pass they are 28th which sets up perfect for the Panthers and the return of McCaffrey.

Game 5: Oak @ LAC over 52

Bet% Over 70% Under 30%

Game 6: Oak @ LAC pk

Bet% Oak 57% LAC 43%

It’s not often I have a bet on the side and total of one game but that is the case here with Chargers and Raiders. First on the over, I think both offenses are going to have good matchups and be able to score in this game. Las Vegas is 13th in DVOA on offense and while it looks like Josh Jacobs will be out this week, they are getting back a couple of their starting linemen and also getting WR Bryan Edwards back. I like not having the option to just hand the ball off to Jacobs here, it forces the Raiders to play up in pace and because I see the Chargers scoring and getting out early, the Raiders are going to have to score to keep up.

The Chargers have become one of the fastest pace teams with Herbert at QB, they are 5th fastest in neutral game situations since Justin Herbert took over and against this #31 DVOA defense I see no reason they shouldn’t have a lot of success in this game.

As for the Chargers side, I really think we are getting a bargain because of the way the game ended last week in Denver. For the 3rd time in 4 weeks the Chargers blew a 2 score game and ended up losing straight up , obviously blowing ig leads is less than ideal but I think there is more to take out of the fact that they keep getting out to those leads rather than the fact that they have let teams get back. I think in this case we are getting the Chargers low and selling the Raiders high after their win in Cleveland.

Game 7: NO @ TB -4

Bet% NO 51% TB 49%

The SNF game the marquee game of the week and I do believe it offers some nice value on the favorite which is not usually the case. In some ways, this game reminds me of the 49ers- Seattle game last week, in that the square side which is the fav is the right side because it is a couple of points cheap. The Saints have not been the same Saints team we are used to this year because their defense is no where near the level it has been at in previous years. The Saints are giving up 28 points per game this year and haven’t played an especially difficult schedule with games vs the Bears, Panthers and Chargers in the last month.

The Bucs offense should get a boost from the addition of Antonio Brown to an offense that is already 5th in DVOA. The Bucs are the #1 DVOA team overall and the only team in the top 6 on offense and defense ( #1 DVOA) and I think are being undervalued in the market. The Saints may get Michael Thomas back in this game but I don’t think you can count on him to be a difference maker in this game as he was only a limited participant in practice this week

Week 8 Picks 2020

LW: 3-3 plus 1 pending

2020- 16-24-1

Game 1: Dal @ Phi -3.5

This is obviously not an available line. On Sunday night, I kept looking to see what this line would open at and on one and only one book they opened at -3.5. I thought even if Andy Daulton plays that line is short but I also thought there was a 80 or 90% chance that Andy Daulton wouldn’t start and in that case I was getting incredible value.  The line was taken down and reopened at -8.5 at which point I bet again in a teaser with the Packers.

Game 2: 2 Team 6 point Teaser Phi -2.5 & GB -0.5

So the case for the Eagles here is

  1. Obviously Dallas has a rookie QB who is the making his first career start with an injured offensive line that is playing poorly facing the #4 ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate, so this is an ideal matchup for the Eagles strength on defense.
  2. The Eagles are getting healthy. Jason Peters and Lane Johnson will be back this week to stabilize he offensive line, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedart will make their return to the offense and on defense Malik Jackson is back.
  3. The Eagles have been fantastic under Doug Pederson going into the bye, 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 18. All week there has been an excitement in Philadelphia of all the guys coming back, and playing against Dallas on SNF, I think we will a very good effort. The line has now also.moved from 8.5 – 9 to 11 sonics clear money is coming in on Philly.

I have an open teaser with the Packers with the Rams, so this is the second teaser I have tied to GB. There is some sharp money on the Vikings so this may end up being tight but I think the Packers have a number of advantages that will prove to be too much to overcome for the Vikings to win straight up. There also seems to be some money that came in based on Dalvin Cook playing and Aaron Jones being out but for the Packers Jamal Williams should be able to give GB 80-90% of wombat Jones would.

The Packers should be able to score their way out of any issues they run into in this game, I just don’t see how the Vikings defense holds up. What hasn’t been priced into this game are the cluster injuries Vikings have at corner where 3 of their top 4 are out leaving the following

1. Rd 1 rookie Jeff Gladney

2. Rd 5 rookie Harrison Hand

3. 2019 7th Kris Boyd

4. 2018 UDFA Chris Jones

Game 3: NO @ Chi +4.5

Bet% NO 61% Chi 39%

I like being on the Bears here after there bad performance on MNF against the Rams. That seemed like a perfect spot for LA and this one seems similarly set up for Chicago. The Saints come into Chicago minus their best player on offense WR Michael Thomas, as well as WR Emanual Sanders and last weeks hero WR Marquez Calloway. They are also missing starting center Nick Easton. Drew Brees has traditionally struggled on the road in outdoor games on grass and against the #6 DVOA defense I don’t see the Saints having a big game here.

The Bears are also expected to miss their # 1 target Allen Robinson but I think Nick Foles should have some success against the Saints defense who is giving up 29 points a game, 31.5 on the road. Between the injuries, the weather and the string Bears defense I just see them sticking around in this game and having a chance to win late in a similar game to the game 2 weeks ago when Chicago beat Tampa Bay.

Game 4: SF @ Sea -3

Bet% SF 45% Sea 55%

Early money came in on the 49ers but I am.more than happy to take Seattle at this cheap price. San Fran comes in again with injuries on offense, Deebo Samuel is out this week, as are the top 3 RBs. Maybe it really doesn’t matter who starts at RB in a Kyle Shanahan offense but I’m betting this week in a game where you know Seattle is going to score, SF missing all of their top playmaker outside of Kettle will matter.

I love getting Seattle off of a national TV loss where Wilson threw 2 interceptions. About 5 or 6 things had to go wrong in the last 5 mins of that Arizona game for Seattle to lose and they all did. Now we get them in the perfect bounce back spot against division rival and also good news on injury front where they get Jamal Adams back.

Game 5: LAC @ Den +3.5

Bet% LAC 59% Den 41%

Chargers are a very popular side this week, Justin Herbert has become the favorite for ROY and has made them LA a very fun team to watch. In this case I think the pendulum has swing too far and I don’t see how they should be a fav this big in Denver. Denver has one of the few home field advantages that actually remains with the altitude so we to need to factor that in, it means to me that you need to give them at least 2 points for that advantage.

Denver over the last 2 weeks beet NE in New England and then last week got blown out by the Chiefs but they actually were hanging in with KC until a pick 6 and KO return TD swung the game. The Broncos are a team that has played very well on the defensive side, they are 7th in defensive DVOA and 5th in adjusted sack rate. That is why I love them this week because they can get pressure and are playing a rookie QB who is going to play behind an offensive line with cluster injuries, 4 of their projected 5 starters are expected to miss this week. I expect we see a low scoring, 1 score game and certainly can see the Broncos winning this game outright.

Game 6: 2 team 6 point teaser: Oak + 8.5 @ Cle & Ind @ Det +9

I was on TB against the Raiders last week after the Raiders had a Covid scare on their offensive line which caused every lineman to miss the week of practices. I honestly never felt good about that game until late in the 4th quarter and was really impressed at how the Raiders offense played against the Bucs #1 the # DVOA defense. This line opened at 3.5 and was bet down to 2.5 and has started dropping even below that which let’s me know we are on the right side.

Detroit has also been a sharp side this week and feels like the perfect teaser side getting it through the 7 in this game. The thing that is interesting about the Colts is that they have played a really easy schedule, they have wins over the Jets, Vikings, Bengals and a loss to the Jags. The best team the Colts have played this year is the Bears so it is a hard team to get a read on but there offense has been extremely inefficient and it feels like a lot to ask this team to go on the road and win by a TD plus against a team that is playing pretty well right now.

Week 7 Picks: TNF

When you thought it couldnt get worse, I caught every bad break last week. The Texans had no business not covering that game, The SF-Rams game started exactly how you would want for the over and then Mostert goes out and both teams don’t score at all in 2nd half and the same situation with TB and GB. The Vikings was just a terrible bet. Going to take a lot going right to pull out of this hole.

LW: 2-6

2020: 13-21-1

Game 1: NYG @ Phi -4

Bet% NYG 37% Phi 63%

I love the Eagles in this spot on TNF. The Eagles have just come off of a run of playing @ SF, @ Pit and home to Baltimore, even with all of the injuries SF that was a murderers row especially considering the Eagles ended the Ravens game with just 2 projected starters on offense, Wentz and Kelce. The Eagles kept some guys out last week with focus on this must win on TNF and are getting Lane Johnson, Desean Jackson and Avante Maddux back. In the meantime they found a reciever in Travis Fulgham that Carson Wentz trusts and Wentz has been much better the last 3 weeks (PFF grade 76.6, rank 9th) after being one of the worst QBs in the league the first 3 (PFF Grade 47.3 rank 31st). That improvement by Wentz has happened with a make shift offensive line and backups at reciever.

The Giants present a perfect get right opponent for the Eagles, on defense the Giants are 12th in adjusted pass rush which is fine but not anywhere near the Steelers and Ravens who the Eagles faced the last 2 weeks, with Lane Johnson back at RT the Eagles should be able to protect Wentz who was hit 16 times last week and allow him to test the Giants 23rd ranked pass defense by DVOA.

On Offense the Giants are dead last in DVOA and the Eagles and their 4th ranked Defensive line in adjusted sack rate should be able to get all types of pressure on Daniel Jones and maybe create a few turnovers. I like the Eagles to win by at least a TD here.

Game 2: TB -4 @ LV

Bet% TB 62% LV 38%

I totally understand why everyone was on the Raiders in this game to start the week basically fading them coming off of a season defining win vs the Packers last week. After the Trent Brown Covid news this game got taken off of the board when it was TB -2.5, I thought it would come back close to a TD but instead it opened at 4. The entire Raiders offensive line has been in quarantine and are questionable for this game, maybe everyone besides Brown plays in this game but even then it it is a lot to ask them to play well against the #2 ranked defensive line in terms of adjusted sack rate and the overall #1 DVOA defense. Todd Bowles has been terrific as the TB defensive coordinator and I can see him putting in a very good plan to take advamtage of the Raiders line not being able to practice all week.

Game 3: Sea @ Ari Under 55

Bet% Sea 63% Ari 37%

Seattle has played in shootouts all year and deserves to be tagged with one of the highest totals of the week but this seems like the right spot to see a lower scoring game. One I don’t think the Seattle defense is as bad as it has been though the start of the year and we will see them regress to closer to a league average type defense.

Arizona is interesting because they are known as a offensive team because they have an exciting coach and their head coach is known for his air raid style offense but they have been a stone cold under team all year, totals in Cardinals games have gone under in 5 of 6 games and it makes sense because they are ranked 10th in defense by DVOA and their offense ranks 12th overall but their passing offense is 18th. Add in the fact that this is a divisional game, both their games last season finished with low totals (40,37) and went under.

Game 4: 2 Team 6 point Teaser: KC -1.5 @ Den & Jac @ LAC -1

The Chiefs- Broncos total dropped from 49 to 45 and the line dropped from 9 to 7.5 because of weather reports in Denver where it is expected to be cold and some chance of snow. That gives us a great opportunity to use the Chiefs in a teaser, the Chiefs on offense now cn win really anyway they like, they can win track meets and they can also grind out on ground like they did on MNF against the Bills. Denver is coming off of a big win in New England in a game where they didn’t score 1 TD. That won’t work here.

In their last 4 games, the Jags have looked a lot like the team we expected at the start of the year going 0-4 with an average losing margin of 15, Only the Bengals (8), didn’t beat them by double digits. Maybe they come out and play well when nobody expects it but with further injuries on defense, this week they will be without Myles Jack and Josh Allen, I don’t see them winning straight up.

Game 5: Pit @ Ten Over 50.5

Bet% Over 60% Under 40%

This is is one of the marque games of the weekend I think has a chance to be one of the biggest offensive shootouts of the week. The Steelers defense has been great all year #2 in DVOA overall, #1 vs the pass and #8 vs the pass but this will be their first game without LB Devin Bush and they will also be without starting corner Mike Hilton. The Titans are also just a very different offense to match up to and their OC Art Smith does a terrific job of game planning. The Titans are 3rd in offensive DVOA, #2 in passing and possess one of the biggest threats in the league to break off a long run in Derek Henry. The Eagles scored 29 against the Steelers in week 5 and I see the Titans having a similar total here.

On the flip side this will be the first week the Steelers will have all of their weapons on offense as Diontae Johnson will be available after missing the last 3 weeks to pair up with JuJu and the Chase Claypool who has been a massive weapon for Pittsburgh the last 3 weeks. The Titans are 22nd in defensive DVOA and 24th vs the pass. I can definitly see both teams get into the 30’s.

Game 6: Buf @ NYJ Over 45.5

Bet% Over 43% Under 57%

This game has seen the line move around all week, it opened at 11 and got bet up to 13 and then as the injury reports came out the line started dropping and now we have mostly 10’s all around. For me, I can’t back the Jets side here but I think it is safe to expect them to play better on offense this week and that brings me to the over.

The Bills rank 29th in defensive DVOA and will likely be without their best corner Tre’Davious White, they should get LB Matt Milano back but he still may not be 100%. For the Jets they are getting much healthier for this game, Mekhi Becton will be back in this game, Denzel Mims should be back in this game and the big news is that Sam Darnold is expected to be back and starting in this game.

The Bills offense has been terrific all year and coming off of 2 straight losses I can see them coming out and having a big game here, The Jets have given up 30 or more in 4 of the 6 games this year and I certainly think Bills are capable of hitting 30 here.

Game 7: 2 team 6 point Teaser: Chi @ LAR pk & Week 8 Min @ GB -0.5

I ended up using the Chiefs in a few additional teasers to the Chargers one above, one was with the 49ers and then another was with the Rams. With the line moving for the Rams today to 6.5 I like their side even more today and am going to use them in a teaser with the Packers again the Vikings coming up.

Chicago is probably the team that has underplayed their record more than any other team, at 5-1 they rank 14th in DVOA overall and 26th on offense. This feels like a nice spot to buy on the Rams who are coming off a very tough loss on SNF, I think they will be able to score on this very good BEars defense, the line move gives me more confidense they are the right side but in the teaser I just need them to win.

The Packers just seem like a team that are like the neighborhood bully, they feast on bad teams and with the Vikings trading Ngakwe and putting Danielle Hunter on IR, I can see another big game Rodgers game against this secondary. I will probably adding the Packers to a few different teasers.

Week 6 Picks 2020

LW: 2-3

2020: 11-15-1

Game 1: Cin +8 @ Ind

Bet% Cin 56% Ind 44%

This game is a priced correctly when we look at these teams by performance, the Colts are 6th and the Bengals are 30th in DVOA but the Colts offense is not one I think you can trust with TD plus lines, the offense is 25th and it wouldn’t surprise me if they go back to a more conservative offense after last week got away from them. In weeks 2-5 the Colts passed on first and 2nd down ( within 10 pt game) 53% vs Min,47% vs NYJ and 21% vs the Bears. In their Week 1 and 5 losses they were over 60% passing. Even though Frank Reich knows passing is more efficient, in this game with the issues Rivers is having I can see him going to a heavier run game and just grinding this game out.

The Bengals have been getting killed by pressure, their offensive line is 32nd in adjusted sack rate but the Colts aren’t a defense that is great at getting pressure, they rank 20th in adjusted sack rate and they are likely to be without their best defensive player Darius Leanard who did not participate in any practices this week. Joe Burrow has managed to cover 3 games with late scores and I like the chances of something like that here as well.

Game 2: Atl @ Min -4

Bet% Atl 33% Min 67%

It is always risky going against these winless teams especially one that has a talented QB and coming off the firing of a coach so there is some concern but I do like the spot for the Vikings. For the Falcons, I don’t see some big emotional lift from the firing of their coach as all indictions are that Quinn was a very popular coach with his players which is different than what we saw in Houston. The Falcons are just also extremely banged up on both sides of the ball.

Minnesota has had a very interesting season so far, they started out priced as a middle of road team and gt blown out the first 2 weeks to the Packers and Colts and everyone basically sold all their Colts stock. Then from there they won a shootout at home vs the Titans in a game where everyone was on the Titans, beat Houston in Houston and then last week beat Seattle for basically 95% of the game before getting beat on the last play by Russell Wilson. The Vikings are back in the NFC playoff picture and this is game that I think they know they have to have and with the bye next week this should be a full effort game. I am not worried about the Dalvin Cook injury as I expect Mattison to give 95% of what Cook would and vs the Falcons that should be more than enough.

Game 3: LAR @ SF Over 51.5

This total comes in at basically the average score of games through 2020 and I think we are getting value on this due to the way the 49ers offense has looked the last couple of weeks. 2 weeks ago the 49ers had Nick Mullens start and Deebo Samuel was playing in his first game of the year. Last week Garapolo started but was clearly not close to 100% and got pulled. This week Garapolo has practiced in full each day so this will be the first game this year that the 49ers will have their starters at the skill positions and as a result I like them to  have one of their better performances on offense.

The Rams should also have no problem moving the ball against this mash unit the 49ers are fielding on defense, last week the Dolphins were able to use their big WRs down the field against the 3rd and 4th string secondary players that are starting. The Rams receivers win in a different way then just down the field speed but I still expect them to be able to score pretty easily against this group.

Game 4: 2 Team 6pt Teaser Car @ Chi +7.5 & Ari @ Dal+7.5

I am taking the Bears and Cowboys in a teaser, this is really just playing the number, both games move through the 3 and 7 giving us maximum value for the teaser and in both cases the line has dropped in favor of the dogs and has pick at numerous books. There is a lot of sharp money on both these sides and I could certainly see both win straight up.

The Panthers have been one of the best surprises of the season but I think this is the spot to sell high. The Bears will bring the best pass defense that the Panthers have faced so far, they are on extra rest after playing on TNF and this is exactly the type of defense that Nick Foles can have success again.

For the Cowboys, this line has just moved too much after the Dak injury. Andy Daulton is one of the 2 or 3 best back ups in the league and could still be a starter on a number of teams. The Cardinals got right last week vs the Jets but their perception as an offensive juggernaut doesn’t fit, the Cards are 20th in DVOA and have not played great defenses. The Cowboys also catch a break as the Cards lost their best pass rusher Chandler Jones so for one week their offensive line injuries shouldn’t be major issue for Daulton.

Game 5: GB @ TB Over 55

Definitely did not get the best of this number as it has moved 3 points since opening and traditionally I could not imagine going over 55 but in a season where the average game total is at 51 I still think this is too low.

The first thing I like about this game is that both offenses are getting their best WRS back, the Packers get Devante Adams and the Bucs get Chris Godwin back. The Packers are -0 and playing great offense but the defense has really struggled, they gave up 30+ to the Saints and Vikings and the 2 games they held the offenses down the Lions and Falcons were extremely banged up. I think both teams get into the 30’s in this game and what I like is both QB’s are known for 2 minute drives so as long as the game stays score we should see both teams consistently hunting for points.

Game 6: 6 Pt Teaser: Den @ NE -2 and GB @ TB +7.5

Waited for the TB game to go back to +1.5 to add them to his teaser and getting them through both the 3 and the 7. This has been one of the sharps sides all week with this line dropping from 3 to 1 and then just moving from 1 to 1.5. While I think the Packers are clearly better than we thought at the start of the season, they still have mostly beaten pretty mediocre or poor teams this year (Atl, Det (missing Golliday), Min) and TB will be a big step up. I also like getting TB off of that bad loss to Chicago on TNF.

The Patriots are coming off of extra long rest and get both Cam and Stephon Gilmore back in this game. Belicheck is always murder vs young QBs and here we get Drew Lock back in his first game minus his #1 WR, #1RB, #1TE, and #3WR.

Game 7: Adding Det -3 @ Jac

Bet% Det 65% Jac 35%

Adding Det late here and really the bet is just that with Golliday back this offense can carry the Lions and that the Jags are actually the team we projected them to be in the offseason and not the team we saw in weeks 1 and 2. The Jags are 27th in DVOA and while they will get DJ Chark and a couple of key players back on defense, they were still not all full participants in practice and I wonder how they will look like in this game.

I think we are getting a bit of a discount on the Lions because of the record but really after the first 2 weeks where they were ravaged by injuries, the Lions have looked like the team they were expected to be in the offseason as they went into Arizona and beat the Cards and then in week 4 played the Saints tough and lost by 1 score.

Game 8: Hou +3.5 @ Ten

Bet% Hou 42% Ten 58%

This is a game 5hat I have been staring at all week and the line hasn’t moved at all and it is just too much value to pass on in the end. The Titans go from being 3.5 pointbdogs on Tuesday to 3.5 point favorites after winning another game where the score didn’t really reflect the box score. There has been no team who has benefited from turnover luck more than Tennessee as through 4 games they are an incredible +8. Even with that TO luck, their margin of victory through the first 3 weeks was +6, despite playing Denver, Jacksonville and the Vikings.

Compare that schedule above to the Titans who opened the season against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers. Houston has been on the other side of turnover luck at -5 through 5 games, the schedule early certainly didn’t help. I think these teams are actually very close in talent and had they played the same schedule would have very similar records, they are not 3.5 wins apart as they currently stand. Getting the extra hook on the FG is just too good to pass on.

Week 5 2020 Picks

I think this has been the most difficult first quarter of a season I have had since posting picks on this blog, you hate to talk about unlucky but the truth is that so many of these games come down to plinko type ends that there are going to be runs where more of these finishes go against you then for you. We hope that starts turning here. I did have a nice size bet on the Eagles ML last week that did help salvage the week but no doubt we have taken some hits to start the year.

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LW: 2-4

2020- 9-12-1

Game 1: Phi +7.5 @ Pit

Bet% 34% Pit 66%

Eagles are coming off of their first win of the year, it is a short week after playing SNF but I think the plus of getting the team feeling good, getting Wentz playing his best game and the defensive line playing their best game that I can see a path to this being a close game late. The real test for the Eagles will be if their new offensive line can hold up against one of the best front 7’s in the league. The Steelers are tied for 1st in adjusted sack rate and are 2nd in total sacks with 15. The Eagles offensive line is 20th in adjusted sack rate but 8 of the 14 sacks they have given up were in the first game vs Washington. The Eagles have changed their offensive game plan since that game going to a more quick passing game, they also have 3 different starters but the Steelers are clearly the best pass rush they have faced since WFT. This game will be the real test case of have the Eagles figured out a way to protect Wentz or did they just play teams that couldn’t get the rush going the last few weeks.

The other main reason for me taking the Eagles here is that we just don’t know how good the Steelers are yet. The 3 teams the Steelers have beat so far this year (NYG, Den, Hou) are a combined 1-11 and the Steelers weren’t overly impressive in any of those games. Steelers are 23rd in run defense DVOA, I think the Eagles can slow them down on offense and stay close in a low scoring game.

Game 2: Ind @ Cle Under 48

Bet% Over 49% Under 51%

I think this number is boosted for 2 reasons, one just the overall scoring and overs that have cashed and secondly the Browns game last week vs Cowboys which was a crazy game that ended with a total of 87 points. In both these teams we have teams that want to run the ball, in fact on 1st and 2nd down these are the 2 teams with the highest rush percentage at 56%. The Colts combine that high run percentage with one of the slowest paced offenses in the league, in neutral situation games the Colts are the 3rd slowest team in the league. The Browns are 21st in pace but that is after playing the number 1 pace team in the league last week in the Cowboys who dragged the Browns to a faster pace game than they normally want to play.

So we have to run heavy teams that have bottom 3rd pace stats in neutral situations and oh yeah the Colts defense is the #1 defense in DVOA. Even if you think that rating is helped by playing poor defenses and hey won’t finish #1 or top 5 they are still probably a top 10 defense. The Colts have the 24th ranked offense by DVOA and I think it is hard to see that offense exploding this week against a Browns defense that is about league average.

Game 3: 6pt Teaser Ari -1 @ NYJ & Car +8.5

There are a handful of games at 7 that we can bring down to 1 and in the end I was deciding between 2, The Cards and the Rams. I ended up going with Arizona because they are coming off of 2 losses and have Dallas and Seattle in the next 2 weeks so this is a game they have to have. The Jets are a team nobody want to bet any money on which can be scary but with Flacco starting and all the injuries, I don’t think his is the week they jump up and get a win.

The Panthers saw some early money on them as this line got moved from the 3.5 open to all the way down to 1 and then back up to 2.5. I can see the Falcons winning their first game but they have so many injuries that it is hard to expect them to be the offense they were in the first few weeks. Julio Jones is questionable and last week only played 15 snaps, Calvin Ridley is probable but also wasn’t 100% this week in practice. The Panthers have been a much better team than expected to start the year and I think considering the injuries it is fair to ask if the wrong team is favored. Either way, I like taking them through the TD here just in case this is the week Atlanta gets it going.

Game 4: Mia +8 @ SF

Bet% Mia 70% SF 30%

Last week I was on Miami at home to Seattle +6 and the game ended up playing mostly how you would hope for with a big dog, both teams moved the ball, Seattle outgained Miami 441 to 415 but Miami ended up settling for 5 FGs and was just 1-3 in the red zone. Now this week they go to San Francisco and play another NFC West titan but this one is one of the most injured teams in the league. The 49ers will be missing most of their secondary ( 6 DBs are out this week) and the Dolphins come in with a pretty healthy and talented WR corps lead by Devante Parker and Preston Williams. The Dolphins also have one of the more talented secondaries so if the 49ers struggle running the ball minus their top 2 RBs, the pass offense should struggle even with Jimmy Garoppolo back.

This could be the last start for Ryan Fitzpatrick if this goes poorly so I think we will see him be more aggressive than he was last week and totally locked in while the 49ers have  a big divisional game on primetime next week with their SNF game vs the Rams.

Added Game 5: Jax +5.5 @ Hou

Bet%: Jax 43% Hou 57%

I am going to bite on the Jags. This line opened at 6.5 dropped below 6 and has stayed there despite majority of bets on Texans. I think a lot of the positivity on Texans has been due to the firing of Bill O’Brien and the emotional uptick that gives Houston but this is still a 0-4 team that is favored by 5.5 in a game that nobody would be shocked if the Jags won. Jags were a popular underdog last week and didn’t cover against the Bengals but I am fine riding them again here.

Games I have not bet but could add on Sunday.

Cin +13 @ Bal

I have stared at this game all week and what scares me is everyone is on the Bengals. The Ravens have not looked like the same juggernaut as last year but what they have made a habit is beating up on bad teams.

Week 4 Picks 2020

I really liked last week’s card and it looked like there was a shot at a big week but once again we ended up splitting the cards with the SNF loss for the Saints.

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LW: 3-3

2020: 7-8-1

Game 1: Jax +3 @ Cin

Bet% Jax 63% Cin 37%

This is one of the few games I bet early this week and got the best of the number with the full 3. I really don’t see how you can make a winless Bengals team that has been a dog in every game this year, a fav of this size. I think based on the first 3 weeks of this season I would make the Jags a fav on a neutral field and I don’t know how you can make the home field worth much here, maybe a point.

I like getting the Jags off of their worst effort of the season and especially since it was a Thursday so they are on extra rest.

The total in this game has been bet up this week from the 45 opener to 49 and in that type of game I like the team with the better offense to win. The Jaguars offense has been extremely efficient to start the year, they are 7th in offensive DVOA and 5th in success rate, the Bengals rank 27th and 21st comparatively.

The Bengals have covered 2 of their 3 games and pushed the other and Joe Burrow has looked good late in games but I am not sold on Zach Taylor’s game management and the poor offensive line play creates erratic throws from Burrow. I think the Jags win this one straight up.

Game 2: Sea @ Mia +6

Bet% Sea 71% Mia 29%

This is not a game where we are going to find a lot of numbers or matchups that favor the Dolphins, this really all about the situation and trying to catch the Seahawks in a bad schedule spot. Seattle is off to a great start due almost entirely to the incredible play of Russell Wilson who is the early favorite for MVP. Seattle is coming off of 2 very high profile games at home vs the Patriots on SNF and then the Cowboys and ended up winning both games in exciting shootouts. Now Seattle has to fly across country and play the Dolphins in hot and humid Florida where Miami is waiting with extra rest after playing on TNF. Seattle’s defense is 23rd in DVOA and should leave the back door cover open for Fitzpatrick.

Finally, just following the line move here, this game opened at Sea -6.5, over 70% of the bets are on Seattle yet the line is dropping to 6 and 5.5 in some spots so clearly there is money on Miami.

Game 3: LAC @ TB Under 43

Bet Over 54% 46%

This line has been dropping since the opener at 45.5 as sharps bet under 45, under 44 and at 43 I definitely have a bad number but I am jumping in as the I think the matchups and injuries definitely point this game to a low scoring game.

Lets start with the injuries, TB will be without #1 or 1A WR Chris Godwin, #3 WR Scotty Thomas missed practice all week and is doubtful and Lenard Fournett is out.

The Chargers injury situation is even more grim, The Chargers will be minus 3 starters on the offensive line, and WR Mike Williams. This will be an impossible situation for Justin Herbert in his first road start, flying cross country, playing the #2 DVOA defense while missing 3 starters on the offensive line. I can see a game script for TB where they get up early and play conservative, run the ball and try to just get out with a win.

Game 4: Min @ Hou -3.5

Bet% Min 32% 68%

We have two playoff teams from last year that are off to 0-3 starts but for me they are in very different situations. Houston has had to start the year with the most difficult schedule for the first 3 weeks of any team in the league opening @ the Chiefs, then playing the Ravens and last week against the Steelers. I think you can make the case that Houston has started with the top 3 AFC teams and the top 2 teams in the entire league. This feels like a good buy low spot for Houston based on who they have played.

 For Minnesota, they have lost an incredible amount of talent on defense, and are giving up almost 300 yards passing per game, their only road game was at the Colts and they were blown out in that game.

We also get good news on the injury front for Houston as they are expected to have Will Fuller back at 100% and Minnesota will be minus their top 3 corners.

Game 5: Ind -2.5 @ Chi

Bet% Ind 53% Chi 47%

I struggled pulling the trigger on this game as it is one where I keep thinking it feels too easy and maybe it’s a trap. The Colts are the #1 team in DVOA, both their lines are in the top 5 in adjusted sack rate and will have mismatches in this game.

The Bears are 3-0 but in both week 1 and week 3 they were down 2 TDs going into the 4th quarter before having incredible 4th quarter comebacks. The Bears have probably upgraded at QB with Foles but  he can be quite volatile in his performances week to week and Frank Reich is one of the coaches that knows Foles game the best so he should have a good plan to defend the Bears passing game.

Adding Game 6: SNF Phi +9.5 @ SF

Bet% Phi 51% SF%

With all the injuries the Eagles have on offense, they only team that has more is the San Francisco 49ers. It’s hard to make a case for the Eagles based on what we have seen in the first 3 weeks but if you were to list the players available in this game and name the top 4, Kittle would probably be the #1 available player but I think you can make a case that the next 3 would be Wentz, Sanders, and Ertz. Obviously wentz has been nowhere near his previous level of play this year but I am going to take one more shot here as a huge dog and see if they can pull out a good performance.

The Eagles under Doug Pederson have a history of winning these road games as big dogs when everyone is counting them out. Last year after starting 1-2 with 2 bad losses @ Atl and home to Detroit, the Eagles went on the road to Green Bay who was 3-0 and won that game straight up as a 6.5 point underdog. In 2018, the Eagles were double digit underdogs to the Rams after a terrible loss to the Saints and missing a number of key guys and won that game straight up as well.

As ugly as the Eagles start has been, a win tonight and they move to first in the terrible NFC East, I think that matters. As for the 49ers, they have done a great job despite all of their injuries but it is hard to expect back ups and young players to play at a high level week in and week out and this is a huge number for Nick Mullins to cover at QB. One last shot on the Eagles with a sprinkle on the moneyline as well.

Week 3 Picks – 2020

We are off to a choppy start in 2020, a mix of some bad beats like Cleveland last week and some bad reads like the Lions – Packers. For week 3 I have a very large card, usually week 2 is over reaction week but for me this year that seems to have been pushed back to week 3 and as a result there is a lot of value on the board. Time to make a move.

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LW: 2-3

2020- 4-5-1

Game 1: Cin @ Phi -4

Bet% Cin 50% Phi 50%

There is probably not another game on the card that has had the line move due to the first 2 weeks than this game. If the Eagles win week 1 and look anything in the 2nd half of that game like they did in the 1st half then this game would be over a TD. In Preseason bets, Eagles were favored double digits for this game. Based on the first 2 weeks you can certainly understand why this line has moved but I just think it has gone too far.

The Eagles were up 17-0 in week one before 2 terrible interceptions by Wentz completely changed the game. Last week the Eagles were 1st and 10 at the Rams 21, down 5 and driving for the lead, when Wentz through an interception in the endzone and basically killed there momentum in that game. Wentz came into the season with a interception rate of 1.7%, last year he was at 1.2%, through the first 2 games this year he is at 4.7%. It is hard to believe that his int rate won’t regress towards that 2% rate that he has traditionally been under, this is  player that has a track record  of not throwing interceptions.

The Bengals defense is one the Eagles should have every opportunity to get well against, last week the Bengals gave up 434 yards on just 58 plays (7.5 yards per play) to a Browns team that had struggled mightily in week 1. Bengals will be missing the keys to their Dline with Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels both expected to be out. The Eagles should be able to run the ball with Miles Sanders and get time to look deep to Desean Jackson

Game 2: Oak @ NE -6

Bet% Oak 34% NE 66%

This was a game I had circled as soon as it was clear the Raiders were going to win om MNF against the Saints. Oakland 2-0, coming off of one of the biggest wins they have had in years, in their new stadium now has to fly out east across the country on a short week and play New England. The Patriots had their own dramatic prime time game but they ended up losing on the last play of the game in Seattle on SNF.  

The Raiders offense feels very funneled at this point with either Josh Jacobs or Darren Waller being the focus, no team has targeted their wide receivers less than the Raiders. To me this is exactly the type of offense that Belichek has been able scheme to a halt in the past.

The Raiders defense has had issues getting pressure the defensive line has just 1 sack and have been bottom 5 in DVOA vs the pass and run. The Patriots offense put up 464 yards off offense last week in Seattle, Cam Newton passed for 397 yards and also rushed for 47 yards with 2 TDs and looks every bit of the top 10 QB he has been throughout his career.

There are 2 things that have had me hesitant on this game, 1st is the fact that there was a very large bet that came in on the Raiders during the week which dropped the line to 5.5 for a few days. The second is that the Patriots play the Chiefs next week and there is some chance they are looking forward to that game though the fact that they lost last week should reduce that trap game factor.

Game 3: LAR @ Buf -2

Bet% LAR 54% Buf 46%

The Rams are playing their second straight road game on the east coast and unlike the 49ers who stayed in Ohio, the Rams flew back to LA and then back out to Buffalo. Both these teams come in 2-0 and in both cases they have played bottom 10 defenses, though I think you can make the case that the Rams have played against better competition.

Beyond the Rams schedule/travel issues, the other big reason to like Buffalo in this spot is that traditionally Jared Goff has struggled on the road and struggled vs defenses that pressure. Last week the Eagles pressure was negated by the fact that their linebackers and safeties played so poorly that Goff had incredibly easy reads all game with wide open throws. Buffalo is easily the best defense the Rams have faced this year and also the defense that is ranked highest in adjusted sack rate so this should provide the best test for the Rams offense.

Game 4: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Game 1: Was @ Cle -1 & SF @ NYG +9.5

Last week you would have won teasers on every game, either way except the Eagles game and the MNF game, which probably means it will be the opposite this week but I like this one anyways.

Game 1 I am taking the Browns to beat Washington at home. This line has moved between 7 and 7.5, I played it at the 7 and got it down to 1. Washington is playing their second straight road game and despite a big second half in the opener vs Philly where everything went there way, the other 6 quarters this season they have looked every bit of the bottom 3 team they were expected to be. The Browns are on extra rest in this game after playing on Thursday last week and this is a game they really have to win when you look at their upcoming schedule. The Browns next 3 games are at Dallas, home to the Colts and at Pittsburgh so I can definitely see the coaching staff making sure they get this win and try to get out of that run at 3-3.

Game 2, I have the Giants at +9.5. This is really a missed opportunity as it seemed pretty clear that the 49ers were going to hold out almost every key injured player due to their issues with the field in NJ and I let this line move from 6 to 3.5. While I think the Giants have a decent shot to win this game straight up, I feel better using them in a teaser and getting it at a TD plus. The 49ers are playing with injuries every level of their team and it is hard to see how they field a team that wins this game. SF will be without Garrapolo, Kittle, Bosa, D. Ford, Mostert, Coleman among others, I don’t think there is a unit on the team that doesn’t have 2nd and 3rd string players on it. I will probably have a small sprinkle on the Giants money line as well.

Game 5: Car +6.5 @ LAC

Bet% Car 43% LAC 57%

This line opened at 6.5 and has stayed at that spot the while time and for me it just feels like too many points for Chargers to be favored over anyone. Last week the Chargers played an incredible game vs the Chiefs a game which they lead the entire game but somehow ended up dropping in OT. I like fading them in this spot for a couple of reasons.

First, I see a letdown spot here against arguably the worst team in the league after playing a division rival who is also the reigning Super Bowl champs.

Second, I like fading Justin Herbert in his second start. Last week nobody knew that Herbert was starting, the Chiefs had no film on him and had prepped for Taylor all week. Overall, Herbert played a very good game but now the Panthers get to prep for him with game tape and he was not a player that was expected to be a finished product coming out so I could see some mistakes in this game.

Finally, I like the idea that this is the Panthers first game without CMC, McCaffery is the biggest name on this team and I think his loss will be felt over the long term but Mike Davis should be able to provide 70/80% of the production and I’m not sure the Panthers should be downgraded much this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers win this game straight up.

Game 6: GB @ NO -3

Bet% GB 65% NO 35%

Week 3 is chalk full of lone moves and values and this game is another that I think has moved too far. Coming into the year, the Packers were seen by many of the smartest analysts as a team primed for a regression. Now after dominant wins over the Vikings who may be  most downgraded team year over year and the Lions who were extreme banged up and came in missing their #1 WR and most of their secondary, the Packers are being graded as one of the elite teams.

The Saints lost on prime time in Oakland in their first game without Michael Thomas and after seeing that everyone is lining up to bet against them. I still have the Saints as the #1 team in the NFC and this line should for me is probably 2 to 3 points light. I love the Saints to bounce back here and the Packers to look more like the team we expected coming into the season.

** Games I Haven’t bet yet but still might

2 games I have not bet but am waiting to see injury info on Sunday before making bets on. Will confirm before kickoff on Sunday if these are official bets.

Det +6 @ Ari

Bet% Det 24% Ari 76%

The Lions are a team that nobody is going to want to bet this week but what is interesting is that despite everyone being on Arizona this line has not moved past the 6 and has dropped to 5.5 a few times. Last week Washington was a 7 pt dog in Arizona and coming into the year I don’t think anyone saw the Lions only 1 point better than Washington. The Lions have been decimated by injuries but if they get some help in the secondary and Kenny Golliday is active, I will be on the Lions tomorrow.

Hou +4 @ Pit

Bet% Hou 40% Pit 60%

I really want to bet on Houston this week. No team has had a tougher schedule than the Texans who had to start with the Chiefs, Ravens and now get the Steelers. It really isn’t possible to know how good Houston is based on their schedule because they have played the best 2 teams in the league and on top of that have had some injury issues as well. The Steelers are 2-0 but haven’t won ATS despite playing 2 bottom end teams in the Giants and Broncos. I know we all feel like the Steelers are good again and a top end AFC team but based on their first 2 weeks its hard to say that they are at that level right now. I want to bet Houston in this spot but half their team in on the injured list as questionable and I really want to make sure most of those guys are playing before making the bet.