2019 Reg Season : 41-44-1
Another tough weekend, I remain convinced Eagles win last week if Carson Wentz doesn’t go out early but in the end these things happen and runs like this happen as well. I don’t love really anything this week, I like both big favs in the AFC and will use them in some ML parlays and teases but for official plays we have 1 teaser and 1 total.
Game 1: 6 pt Teaser Min @ SF -1 & Sea +10.5 @ GB
I am taking both the AFC West teams here in a teaser. The Vikings got a huge win vs the Saints in a game I was on the wrong side of, the thing I should have remembered is that Zimmer and Vikings have traditionally played the Saints very well. The other big issue in last week’s game was how poorly Sean Payton managed the game and specifically end of half and game clock situations. Asking the Vikings to one again fly across country and win as a TD underdog seems like too much, I see the 49ers getting a lot more pressure on the Vikings and I think Shanahan targets a player like Anthony Barr in space.
I think there is a good chance for Seattle to win this game, I expect it to be a low scoring game that comes down to a late drive because that’s basically how every Seattle game ends. Seattle has played in 12 one score games this year including last week vs a team that lost their starting QB in the first half and then had their 40 year old back up QB play the entire 2nd half with a torn muscle. The Packers are the weakest of the home teams with a bye in DVOA and in fact Seattle finished ahead of them so I definitely think Seattle keeps this close.
Game 2: Seattle @ Green Bay Under 46.5
I think there are a lot of factors in this game that point towards the under and a lower scoring game. First off we have the Packers defense which I think is the best and healthiest unit in the of the 4. The Packers defense in their last 5 games gave up an average of 14 points and a high of 20 though they certainly didn’t play a murder’s row of QBs. Seattle is playing without their top 2 RBs but last week continued trying to stay with the run despite having no success outside of Russell Wilson scrambles vs the Eagles # run defense. This week Seattle faces a much easier run defense, GB is 23rd vs the run and for the purpose of the under I would much rather see Seattle running instead of having Wilson looking to air it out.
The Packers meanwhile have had issues scoring much of the 2nd half of the season despite a pretty easy schedule and really morphed into a team that grinded out games in the low 40’s. In their last 8 games GB has scored more than 24 just once and none of those games would have gone over this total of 46, in fact the last game they played with a total higher than 46 was vs KC in week 7 when they won 31-24. I think this game is a 23-20 game and not sure which side comes out ahead.