2019 Reg Season : 41-44-1
Game 1: Ten @ KC -7
Bet% Ten 38% KC 62%
The Titans have pulled off 2 of the biggest upsets of the playoffs and deserve all the respect they are getting in this matchup but I think this is the game where the clock strikes midnight on Cinderella. If we look at the games vs the Patriots and Ravens it was clear going in and crystal clear after that if Tennessee got up early in those games they would be able to control the game script and neither the Patriots or Ravens were going to be comfortable playing catch up. Last week was particularly interesting, The Ravens outgained Tennessee 530 to 300 on 5.8 yards per play and had 5 drives end in Titan territory without scoring. If you play that game 100 times maybe in 5 of them Baltimore ends up with 12 points, just seems like an impossible total for how many opportunities Baltimore actually had. The Chiefs are not going to be scared by being down, there isn’t a score that will change what they do and I think it is much more likely that the Chiefs get the Ravens out of their regular game script than the other way around. The Chiefs offense is the best passing offense in football, the year long numbers don’t show that but we forget the number of games that Mahomes didn’t play or wasn’t 100%, they also had a number of games without Tyreke Hill, this is actually the healthiest that offense has been all year and as a result they can basically pick their number.
The Chiefs run defense finished 29th in DVOA so on the surface it is hard to see how they stop Henry but if I know Andy Reid his plan to stop the Titan run game is going to be simply score early and make them pass. The thing about the Titans and their dominant run game is despite superman performances by Derek Henry, they have scored through the air and that is where KC has excelled on defense. The Chiefs pass defense finished 6th in DVOA and if they can score early and get the Titans to rely more on Tanehill I think they win this game by 2TDs+
Game 2: GB +8 @ SF
Bet% GB 49% SF 51%
It is hard to find any numbers that you look and feel good about the Packers in this spot, The 49ers finished ahead of GB in every phase in DVOA, had to deal with more injuries during the season and the regular season matchup was a 37-8 49er blowout. I just think we are going to see one close game this weekend and while most people would take the Titans for that best underdog I can see a scenario where the Packers pull off the upset. Green Bay’s defense started out playing great football for the first month and then declined for the middle of the season. Since the 49er loss, the Packers have played 6 games and given up more than 20 just once, last week vs Seattle. I also think we have seen a lot of games where the 49ers have essentially hid Jimmy Garappalo, last week Garappolo had just 19 attempts, completed 11 of them for 131 yards, what happens if the Packers score first? Jimmy has been prone to turnovers so if GB can try to put more of the game in his hands they can definitely keep this a one score game. In the end I just think in a playoff game where Aaron Rodgers comes home to play against an unaccomplished QB getting 8 points is really good value. If the Packers score early and there is an opportunity to middle, I can see myself taking that as well.