2019 Reg Season : 41-44-1
Game 1: Team 6pt Teaser: Buf +8.5 @ Hou & Min @ NO -2
Teasers in the playoffs have been very profitable over the last few years and while I think you can make a case for all 4 games to be good teaser opportunities these 2 sides fit the classic Stanford Wong criteria (teasing through 7 and 3) which gives us maximum value.
Buffalo I think has a great shot of winning straight up in Houston, Houston has been bad on defense most of the year, they finished 27th in DVOA and were carried by their offense. The issue for the Texans in this game is that there seems to be clear correlation between the success of the Houston offense and availability of Will Fuller. According to ESPN Stats and info the Texans average 296.8 Passing yards per game with Fuller on the field and only 158.3 when he isn’t. Fuller is out his game and for the Bills who have one of the best corners in the league in White, they should be able to handle this offense without Fuller. The reason I didn’t just take the Bills +2.5 is that I can’t trust Josh Allen in this spot. The Bills should be able to move the ball vs the Texans but I can also see a scenario where Allen misses wide open throws or turns the ball over.
The Saints might be the best team in the NFC but end up as the #3 seed and hosting a game on Wild Card Weekend. The Vikings are limping into the playoffs, Dalvin Cook missed the last 2 weeks of the year with a shoulder injury and will be less than 100%, Adam Thielen caught only 3 passes in the 2 games after returning from his injury. The total has been bet up and I can see both teams having success moving the ball but in the end the Saints have too many advantages on offense to not pull this game out and we get them here under the 3.
Game 2: Sea @ Phi +1.5
Bet% Sea 82% Phi 18%
The Eagles are the side nobody wants to bet and we see that in the bet splits. The Eagles have played the last 4 weeks minus 5-7 starters on offense and yet Doug Pederson has been able to scheme this offense to 4 straight games of 400+ yards of offense. THe Eagles should get a couple of their key guys back in this game as Miles Sanders will play and Zach Eartz seems like he may be cleared, Lane Johnson is a game time decision but seems unlikely. The Eagles offense has found a rhythm the last month and they will know exactly what to expect vs Seattle. The Seahawks play base defense more than any other team in the league, they play base over 65% I fully expect the Eagles to be able to take advantage of those linebackers with their backs and tight ends.
The Eagles defense is very susceptible to deep passes to outside WRs, they are in the bottom 5 in Explosive plays given up (27th), TDs (32nd), Yards allowed per game (32nd), it is clear that is the way to attack them. Seattle, despite having one of the best QBs in the league has been steadfast in it’s run first approach and that continued last week despite losing their top 3 RB’s. The fact that Seattle continues to operate it’s offense in sub optimal manner will be a bigger issue here because the Eagles defense is much better at home. The Eagles give up 16.8 pts/game at home compared to 27.5 on the road, Opponents passer rating at home is 81 compared to 99 on the road and they give up 4.8 yards per play at home compared to 6.1 on the road. I also like the fact that you have one of the most analytics forward and aggressive teams in the Eagles compared to Seattle who routinely will kick FGs or punt in situations where going for it on 4th down is the clear play.