The Wild swings of December continued with another rough week, I really thought he Bears had saved the game with the play at the end but alas it was not meant to be. Smaller cards from here on out, as we try to end up with a profit for the season.
Game 1: Buf +6.5 @ NE
Bet%: Buf 64% NE 36%
The most worrying part of this game is that everyone seems to be on the same side, the Patriots stock has never been lower. I think when you look at the matchups both defenses have huge advantages so getting 6.5 points in a game with a total of 37 where you could certainly see a scenario where the underdog wins is too good to pass up. The Patriots offense is not capable of covering this game on their own, this is not your fathers Tom Brady.
On the downside, we also know that Josh Allen is exactly the type of QB that Belicheck can take advantage of so a defensive TD is always on the table. That is what scares me in this game, last week Allen was not good vs the Steelers defense and the Bills tried to basically hide him in 2nd half.
In the end I just trust the Bills defense to be able to handle this Patriots offense and keep the game within a score and maybe even win.
Game 2: Pit @ NYJ +3.5
Bet% Pit 60% NYJ 40%
Betting against the Steelers has been one of the few consistently profitable plays for me the last onth and again in this one I think they are being overvalued. The Steelers offense is 30th in DVOA, 32nd in weighted DVOA, and we are expecting one of the worst offenses in the NFL to cover 3.5 points on the road. The Jets are obviously not good team but they should have Jamal Adams back and he s absolutely the key to their defense. I think the big reason that his line opened at 3 is because this is one of the cases where it is a must win for 1 team, the Steelers, against a team whose season is over. The must win scenario always draws money and as a result the lines get inflated on those sides and that’s what has happened here, there is no way that Steelers should be favored by a FG or more in this game. The Jets have been a much better team at home winning 4 of their last 5 at home while only winning one this year on the road.
Game 3: Det @ Den Under 38.5
Bet% Under 50% Over 50%
It’s not often you get a game with both teams staring their #3QB’s but that is what we have here. The Lions come into this game minus a bunch of key players on offense including Marvin Jones and TJ Hawkinson and the Broncos #12 defense should have no issues handling the group that is left. Keryon Johnson returns in this game and the fact that he is active and coming back means to me that the Lions will try to get him involved, in fact I think both teams will try to count on the run game. There is not any snow or rain in forecast but it will be cold in Denver and for the Dome Lions that should be an issue, their last 2 games in cold outdoor stadiums Was & Chi both went under. In this game, it’s hard to see where the Lions points come from, how do they move the ball. The Lions run offense is 27th and since taking over at QB David Blough has 3 TDs in 3 games and 5 interceptions with a passer rating of 67, that is not an offense that will travel well to the mile high city.
Game 4: 2 Team 6 point Teaser NO @ Ten +8.5 & Oak @ LAC -1.5
So in this teaser we are taking both games through the 2 key numbers of 3 and 7 so getting maximum value. The game is important to the Saints for seeding and for the Titans it is basically their season so not necessarily a huge motivation advantage, both teams still need this game. This is really a great spot for Tennessee, the Saints are coming off of a short week after playing on MNF a game that saw Drew Brees break another record. This is amazingly the first outdoor game of the season for Brees and traditionally he has not played as well outside of the dome.
Last week was the big emotional sendoff from Oakland for the Raiders and they managed to blow a 16-3 lead and get nachos thrown on them by their fans. What do the Raiders have to play for? It’s hard to fnd reasons why the Raiders will come out big in this game, they have shut down Jacobs who was the ROY favorite they will also be without T Trent Brown and WR Hunter Renfroe. Meanwhile you can make the case that this is the healthiest the Chargers have been all year.
Game 5: Ari +9 @ Sea
Bet% Ari 61% Sea 39%
So there are 3 reasons for me to be on the Cards in this game. The first is that Seattle has played nothing but one score games all year, 11 of their 14 games have been 1 score games so getting 9 here has real value.
Secondly, this is a classic look ahead spot for Seattle, they know they have to win this week but next they play the 49ers for the division, a bye and maybe the #1 seed, you do not get bigger games than that in the regular season. All the players have that game circled.
Finally, the Seahawks are going to miss a bunch of key players in this game, Duane Brown is out, Clowney is out, Quadre Diggs is out, Mychal Kendricks and Shaquil Griffin are doubtful.
Game 6: GB @ Min -5
Bet% GB 63% Min 37%
The Packers are another team that I think is not as good as their record and as a result we get value betting against them every week. IN DVOA, the Vikings rank 7th while the Packers are 9th but in weighted DVOA Vikings are 6th while the Packers are 12th. Mike Zimmer has had a lot of success vs Rodgers and the Packers offense especially at home, in the last 3 games in Minnesota, the Packers have scored 17, 10 and 14. Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook but I am confident they will be able to run on GB with either Boone or Mattison so it really comes down to can you trust Cousins in a prime time game. Kirk Cousins is having the best season of his career, he is 9th in QBR and 2nd in passer rating and has 25 TDs to just 5 Ints, at some point the prime time issues should go away.
Rest of Card will come late Sat night but I will def be on the Vikings on MNF, and leaning on the Jets, Chargers and a couple of totals.