Week 17: 3-1
Game 1: 2 Team Teaser Ind @ Buf -0.5 & TB –2 @ Was
The first bet I placed on Monday was this teaser. With the Bills we are obviously not getting the best value on a teaser, we are only buying the 6 and 3 and the total is the 2nd highest on board but in a small slate I am ok passing up some value. This feels like a perfect matchup for the Bills, they get a an indoor team coming to play outside in the cold and with the way Buffalo is scoring I believe it will force the Colts to put this game more in the hands of Rivers than they would like and from that I think we see a turnover or two. The Bills had such an ugly playoff moment last year but this team feels totally different, they are #1 in weighted DVOA overall and 8th on defense, 4 spots higher than their full year grade. The Colts have feasted on such an easy schedule this year it is hard to know what to really make of them but I do feel confident that the Bills are going to score in this game as almost every good offensive opponent did vs the Colts and I am not convinced the Colts can keep up against an improving Bills defense.
Tampa offers the full value teaser goin through the 7,6 and 3 and are playing a team that is as one sided as any in the playoffs. I have no doubt that WFTs’ defense will cause problems for the Brady and the Bucs (see total pick below) but how does this Washington team score enough to win or keep it under a FG? Last week the Eagles a middling defense benched every veteran starter on defense besides Brandon Graham and Darius Slay and WFT couldn’t do anything. We don’t know what the situation is at QB, we just know it isn’t good. The Bucs may end up winning ugly in this game but I am confident they win.
Game 2: LAR @ SEA Under 43
This is the 3rd meeting between thee teams both meetings have gone under and I think that trend continues. In the end, what you are capping in this game is Pete Carrol and how he wants to play offense. In their first 7 games, Seattle scored 30+ five times and 27 in the other 2 games, that was the “Let Russ Cook” part of the season when the Seahawks were in top 5 in early down passing and one of the best offenses in football. In the last 9 games Seattle has reverted to the classic Seattle model of running on early downs and have hit 27 only twice and 4 of their last 5 games have gone under.
In this game, with the Rams QB position in flux but a very good defense I think Carroll takes his chance in a low volatility game, keep it close late and then let Russ win in the 4th, it worked a couple of weeks ago for the division and I think they play it the same way. I see a 20-17, 20-13 type game but there is no doubt if they decide to let Russ Cook this game could go over easily, that’s the bet we are making, who are the real Seahawks. I also like the under more if Goff starts, the
Game 3: TB @ WAS Under 45
The Bucs are coming in this game playing some of the best offense in the league finishing the season with 44,47,31 and 27 but those totals came against some of the worst defenses in the league, Detroit, Atlanta twice and Minnesota. When the Bucs have played quality defenses like the Rams, Saints and Giants they have had a much more difficult time, Brady has struggled against teams that pressure and that is certainly what he will face here in Washington. WFT finished 7 in adjusted sack rate, 3rd in defensive DVOA and 2nd vs the pass, this is going to be a matchup that TB will need to be very efficient against to score 30+. On the flip side it is hard to see how WFT scores in this game. Last week vs the Eagles, the Eagles benched every veteran starter of note on defense besides Brandon Graham and Darius Slay, the bulk of the secondary was 3rd team and practice squad players and against that competition WFT averaged 4 yards per play and 145 yards passing, they have not scored more than 20 the last 3 games, this is just not an offense that is playing well at all right now.
Game 4: Ten @ Bal -3 2H
Didn’t get a chance to post this live, I wanted Bal -3 all weekend, it got down to -112 which i should have taken but by Sat night it moved back -3.5 and I figured I would wait for live opportunity, which luckily did come up.
After seeing the surge in 2nd half, I was hoping the game would stay tied going into half with Ravens getting ball first and that exactly what happened and I was able to get Ravens -3 for 2nd half.
Game 5: Steelers Live
I don’t have any bets on Chi @ NO but will look for opportunities in the Steelers game where I think the impact of not having Stephanski will impact them more after the scripted plays and 2nd half. 8f Browns score early or are competitive at half I will be taking Steelers.