Week 16: 3-4
Game 1: NO @ Car +6
The Saints need the Packers to lose for this game to mean anything and are playing at the same time. COVID hit the Saints RB room and all of the RBs on the roster including Kamara and Murray will be out for this game, there is a chance we will see more by game time. Brees has relied on that running game to carry the offense since returning from injury and it is hard to see how they run away from a Panthers team that has covered big numbers all year.
I can see 2 ways the Panthers get the cover in this game, the first is the Saints struggle on offense without Kamara and Murray and the Panthers are able to stay in this game start to to finish. The second way is that the Packers lead the Bears all game and the Saints pull Brees and some of the other key players and the Panthers win or cover late as a result. Either way I think there is value in getting 6 here.
Game 2: Pit +10 @ Cle
The Steelers will have Roethlisberger and a number of other starters resting in this game but the Browns are in the midst of a Covid scare that last week cost them so many bodies they lost to the Jets. Now 7 days later they are favored by more points against the Steelers who while they will have a back up QB are a team that will feature mostly players who have contributed to a double digit win team. It would not surprise me at all to see Pittsburgh in this game with a chance to win.
Game 3: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser Atl @ TB -1 & Dal @ NYG +7.5
In this teaser we are taking the Bucs down to 1 and we need them to just win the game. These 2 teams played 2 weeks again and the Falcons got off to a great start and lead the game 17-0 at half and 24-7 in the 3rd before the Bucs came roaring back and scored 31 in the 2nd half. The Bucs know they can throw all over the Falcons and I think they get to it sooner in this game.
Money has poured in on the Cowboys this week vs the Giants but if you look at who Dallas has played the last 3 weeks ( Phi, SF and Cin) and the fact that they are +9 in turnover in those games, it would be hard not to look good. The Giants on the other hand have played a much tougher schedule as of late with the Ravens, Browns and Cardinals so no surprise they would 0-3 and have looked competitive. I like the Giants in this post to win but definitely like them to stay within a TD.
Game 4: Mia @ Buf -0.5 1st Half
I have been trying some different ways to play this but in the end the play I feel best about is taking Bills in the first half. I think there is a good chance that they let the starters play deep into the 2nd half but just in case they don’t, I think they come out and set the tone early in this game. The Dolphins are going back to start Tua in this game and even with the better defense I don’t see how they keep up with the Bills offense.