Week 4 NFL Picks

LW: 2-2

2019 Season: 8-5

TNF: Phi +6 (-120) @ GB

Bet% Phi 33% GB 67%

I bet this game on Tuesday when the line was 5.5 and bought the extra half point to take it to 6.

TNF

As of Thursday afternoon this line has been dropping and is now mostly 3.5. I wouldn’t have bet this game under 4 because I do think the value is gone. That being said, I bet this game when Alshon Jeffrey was listed as practicing, even if he is not a 100% he will help take attention away from Zach Ertz. This isn’t a must win but the Eagles are getting close to desperate time especially when you look at the upcoming schedule. Eagles are  0-3 against the spread and the Packers are 3-0, Pederson is 4-0 on TNF. The Packers are easily the best defense the Eagles have played so far but Wentz is also likely the most dangerous QB the Packers have played. The first half will be a good indicator of this game, The Packers have been great in 1st half the Eagles are one of the lowest scoring 1st half teams. If Eagles can stay close early they will have a chance to win, if Packers get out early then we are probably left hoping for a back door cover.

Sunday Picks

Game 2: Car +5 @ Hou

Bet% Car 35% Hou 65%

The Panthers are one of the most interesting teams n the league. They have upgraded the talent level on offense and defense the last 2 years and last year started out 6-2 before Cam got hurt and the season fell apart. This year they once again looked like one of the most talented teams in the NFC but lost the first 2 games because Newton was clearly not over the foot injury he suffered in the preseason. Last week with a healthy QB the Panthers once again showed the form they did last year. While I don’t expect Kyle Allen to have a 4TD game, the Panthers should be able to move the ball and put up points.

The biggest mismatch in this game may be the Panthers Dline vs the Texans offensive line, the Texans line is 30th in adjusted sack rate and the Panthers defensive line is 4th. The Panthers line can control this game and cause havoc for Desaun Watson, if they get create a turnover or two they can win this game outright.

Game 3: Ten @ Atl -3.5

Bet% Ten 50% Atl 50%

In a game of 1 win teams I am taking not only the more talented team but also the one that plays much better at home. Atlanta played a terrible game in their opener but then beat the Eagles at home on SNF and last week lost 27-24 at Indy in a game they put up almost 400 yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play. The Titans played that same Colts team the week previous at home and put up 243 yards or 4.3 per play. Last week vs the Jags, Marcus Mariotta averaged 5.1 yards per att and was sacked 9 times.

I fully expect the Falcons offense to be able to score in this game even though the Titans defense is pretty good. Tennessee is 12th in defensive DVOA, 7th in Yards per pass attempt at 5.9 but on the road they have given up 6.6. The Titans are clearly much more comfortable leading with the run, if Atlanta can scores the way they are capable of, Tennessee will be forced to put the game in Mariotta’s hands and I can’t see him keeping up.

Game 4: TB +9.5 @ LAR

Bet% TB 47% LAR 53%

There is not a lot to breakdown here, this is really just a bet on the very large number and the schedule spot for the Rams. The Rams are 3-0 but haven’t been blowing teams out or putting up monster number the way they did but still, 3-0 is 3-0. If you look at the Rams schedule, 2 weeks ago they played the Saints in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, last week they played in primetime on SNF and next week the Rams play divisional rival Seattle on TNF in Seattle. We know sometimes teams starting looking ahead to the Thursdays games even doing some prep for that game during the previous week well if there was ever a game you might take some time away from it, the a home game vs Tamp Bay would be it.

With the Bucs we get 2 things you like in this matchup, first is a passing game very capable of scoring points, Mike Evans broke out with 3 TDs last week and while Winston has lost plenty of games with interceptions with a number this big you want a guy capable of the plus plays because we have some margin on the downside. The other thing we get with the Bucs is a very good run defense so far this year. TB is giving up 3 yards per att, which is 2nd in the league, and they have faced McCafrey, Barkley and the 49ers who have one of the best designed run games in the league. We know the Rams base everything off the run with play action so that run defense could be key here.

Game 5: Jax @ Den -2.5

Bet% Jax 49% Den 51%

This feels like a great spot for the Broncos to get their first win of the season. Traditionally Denver has had one of the best home records in September, the altitude is extra difficult for teams to face early in the year when they are still getting into the season. The Jags won their first game of the year last week on TNF and rookie Gardner Minshew had his moment in the sun, he only passed for 200 yards bt had 2 TDs and the Jags won easy. The Broncos defense might not be as good as we thought coming into the season but them having 0 sacks and 0 takeaways is shocking and at some point a team with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb is going to break out, this week feels like a perfect spot. The Broncos have faced some very good defenses with Bears and Packers so the Jags defense should not be a big shock and Jalen Ramsey is not expected to play which also helps Denver.

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