After a hot start in Week 1, time to roll into Week 2 Picks
2018 Season: 44-34-1
Week 1: 4 – 1
Week 2 Picks
Game 1: Sea @ Pit -3.5
Bet% Sea 45% Pit 55%
This is really the classic week 2 game I love to bet, We have a one team, The Steelers, that came into the season with high expectations but got blown out on national TV. On the other side we have the Seahawks who won their opener at home despite being badly outplayed and now has to travel across country.
Last week there was not a team less deserving of a win than Seattle, The Bengals outgained Seattle 429 to 232, ran 21 more plays 70-49 and had 10 more First Downs 22-12. Seattle really had no business winning that game. Seattle is traditionally a much better team at home, last season they were 6-2 at home and 4-4 on the road but 3 of those 4 wins were against bottom dwellers Oak, Ari and Det.
For the Steelers they opened the season in a very difficult spot, SNF against the Super Bowl Champs and the Patriots came out in playoff form and ran them off the field. It is certainly possible that everyone overrated the Steelers coming into this season bi even if that is the case they are going to be a better team than they showed last week. This is a great spot to take the Steelers.
Game 2 Ind +3.5 @ Ten
Bet% Ind 38% Ten 62%
I was on the Colts last week and while they covered the 6.5 despite losing in OT, if it wasn’t for Adam Viniteri missing 2 FGs and an extra point they easily could and should have won that game. This will be the Colts second straight which is a concern here but I think the Colts defense and run game should travel.
The Titans had one of the biggest upsets of week 1 beating the Browns by 30, 43-13 in a game where almost everything went right for the Titans. The game was much closer than the score indicated, Browns outgained Ten 346-339, but the turnovers were 3-0 and the Titans returned an interception for a TD. Both these teams had results in week 1 that weren’t exactly representative of the play on the field but as a result I think we are getting the extra half point.
Last season The Titans scored 10 and 17 against the Colts if they can keep them around 17-20 I like the Colts chances to not only cover but possibly win straight up.
Game 3 LAC @ Det +2
Bet% LAC 70% Det 30%
I was on the Colts against the Chargers last week and part of the reason is that they had suffered a number of very serious injuries to key players (Derwin James, Russell Okung).well things have continued to get worse on the injury front for the Chargers as they lost Hunter Henry for the season and Mike Williams is questionable. They also lost depth corner Trevor Williams adding to the troubles of the secondary.
The Lions spent a lot of resources to improve their defensive line adding Tre Flowers and Mike Daniels and if the Lions are going to win they need to be big here. Last week the Chargers offensive line gave up 19 pressure plays ( Sacks + TFL + QB Hits) , The lions had 18 against Kyler Murray and the Cards including 5 sacks., if they can repeat that performance at home they should have every opportunity to win this game.
One more reason to look at betting the Lions is we have a reverse line move here. The line opened Chargers -2.5, we have over 70% of bets coming in on LAC yet the Line is dropping to a consensus -1.5.
Game 4: SF @ Cin -1
Bet% SF 39% Cin 61%
The Bengals had one of the most impressive performances in week one and somehow lost the game. Cincy outgained Seattle by almost 200 yards, had almost twice as many 1st downs and ran 20 more plays, while playing in one of the most difficult road stadiums. How does a team that dominates by those margins lose? Well, first the Bengals went 0-3 in the red zone but the biggest problem was turnovers, the Bengals fumbled 3 times and lost all 3. This was a very impressive performance by Zach Taylor in his debut as the Bengals coach and I think this week they get a great opportunity to get him his first win.
The 49ers are playing their 2nd straight road game after winning 31-17 in TB on the strength of 2 pick 6 TDs. While they won the game easily it was not a great performance by Jimmy Garappolo, who went 18/27 166 yds 1TD 1INT. All summer there have been questions about Garappolo’s fit in Shanahan’s offense and week 1 did little to dispel those worries. After seeing how good the Bengals offense looked week 1, the 49ers will need to be much better if they are going to win 2 straight on the road. I love this spot for the Bengals to get their first win of season.
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