We got off to a nice start in week 1 and traditionally I have done well in week 2 so here’s hoping for a big start.
Week 1: 3 Wins 1 Loss
Game 1: KC @ Pit -4
Bet% KC 62% Pit 38%
Game 2 KC Pit Over 52
Bet% Over 72 Under 28%
I was on KC last week and liked Cleveland but the line moved a little to much for me to bet so the week 1 results were not surprising to me. Andy Reid is traditionally great in any game where he has extra time to get ready and season openers certainly apply. Chiefs won easily but the Chargers dropped 2 sure TDs and were able to move the ball easily to the tune of 524 yards or 7.3 yards per play. We knew the Chiefs defense was a problem coming into the season and even though they won in week 1 it clearly is an issue.
On the Steelers side, they played an ugly road game in week 1, there was rain and sloppy field and they just ever seemed to be in sync. The Levean Bell issue is not going away but the fact that Conner played well and that the team probably isn’t worried week to week, I expect that it will be less of a distraction this week. I fully expect the Steelers offense to feast this week on the Chiefs and put up big numbers. I like Steelers to win by a TD and think both teams will score here so taking the Over as well.
Game 3: Phi -3 @ TB
Bet% Phi 71% TB 29%
This is one of the biggest line changes from week 1. Going into the season this line was projected to be Eagles -6 but an ugly win for the Eagles on TNF and an incredible win by the Bucs in New Orleans and we have a 3 point move. I like the Eagles a lot here, Doug Pederson gets an extra long break to game plan the Bucs and Nick Foles gets one of the worst secondary’s in football to to get right against.
I expect the Eagles defensive line to feast and get a lot of pressure on Fitzpatrick, something the Saints didn’t do at all last week. The Bucs probably have an advantage at WR over the Eagles corner but I just don;t them to have a lot of time to get separation.
Game 4: Mia +3 @ NYJ
Bet% Mia 43% NYJ 57%
For many the Jets came into the season as a team likely to be a bottom 5 squad because of the lack of talent on offense and the fact that they are starting a 21 ear old QB. Then in week 1 everything went right on MNF including getting 4 interceptions from Stafford and 2 TDs from Darnold who threw just 20 passes all game. These are the exact types of games that prove to be unreliable forecasting the following week and create value for bettors.
I don’t really know how good either of these teams are but I suspect the Dolphins are the better team and much more likely to finish 2nd in this division. Miami has veteran NFL players at most key positions and as long as Tanehill is healthy I think they will be competitive most weeks. I don’t think the Jets home field is worth 3 and I am pretty sure Miami is the better team so this too good of value to pass up. I think Miami wins straight up so will have $$ on the ML as well.
Game 5: NYG +3 @ Dal
Bet% NYG 70% Dal 30%
This is the one game where I worry about falling into the overreaction trap, specifically on Dallas. The Cowboys struggled on offense last week mightily, the offensive line clearly missed their center Travis Fredrick and the passing game lived up to all the offseason fears of lack of weapons as they averaged only 3.9 yards per pass. I suspect the offense will get going especially on the ground but am betting it takes more than a couple of weeks.
The Giants weren’t much more impressive on offense, Eli missed multiple opportunities that would have given New York a chance to win the game and I suspect it doesn’t take long before the city gets very loud about passing on Darnold. That being said the Giants have game breakers on offense with OBJ, Barkley and Engram and a talented defense. If one of these teams is going to get a couple of big plays that make the difference, I think the Giants are more likely to make them.
Week 1 Review. – 3 Wins 1 Loss
Game 1: Cin +2.5 @ Ind – result Cin 34– Ind 23 – Win
Game 2: KC +3.5 @ SD – Result KC 38 SD28 – Win
Game 3: Dal +3 @ Car – Result Dal 8 – Car 16 – Loss
Game 4: Chi +7 @ GB – Result Chi 23 – GB 24 – Win