Week 1: 2018

As a long time Eagles fan, the 2018 season could not have ended any better. Last year was a down year for this blog and to be really honest I am not sure how much time I will have this season to dedicate to the blog as life has got much busier to me so things will look a little different here and the writeups will be much shorter. In the end if we get plays that win, that is all that matters. Speaking of plays that win, one more time…

 

*No Idea What happened and why this didn’t post last week but to just verify the picks here are the twitter screen prints.

Game 1: Cin +2.5 @ Ind

Bet% Cin 71% Ind 29%

This is not the best number you could have got this week as the game was bet down from 3 and continued to drop today. Simply put I think the wrong team was favored here. Minus Andrew Luck this is one of the worst rosters in NFL and beyond that that they have injuries in the defensive backfield, offensive line and running back. Meanwhile the Bengals have become sort of the forgotten team in the NFL North despite bringing back essentially the same roster that has competed for the top of the division the last number of years.

On Luck, yes it’s great having him back and he is certainly capable of making up the talent gap but we have to see where he is before I start betting on him.

Game 2: KC +3.5 @ SD

Bet% KC 52% SD 48%

I like both of these teams this season but this is really a bet on a couple of things. Getting the hook here is key. The Chargers on paper probably deserve the extra half point but Andy Reid has a way of his team exceeding expectations in the regular season and has traditionally been great is season openers. On the other hand, last year

Anthony Lynn found ways to lose games he should have won and the Chargers are going to have to prove they can handle being FG plus favorites. I also think the Joey Bosa injury in this game is a big deal. Pat Mahomes is playing his first meaningful game in the NFL and not having Bosa there creating havoc should help a lot.

The Chiefs may have one of the worst defenses in the NFL so to keep this close they are going to have to score and score often, with Bosa out and an entire off season to prep, I think they can.

Game 3: Dal +3 @ Car

Bet% Dal 35% Car 65%

Dallas is a team I am not convinced will be very good this year but some very smart people like Aaron Schatz of football outsiders seem to think is primed for a comeback season. Carolina, on the other seems to be a consensus pick to regress by the analytics and I agree with that so this seems a good spot to see if the numbers are right.

I would feel better about the Cowboys if they hadn’t just lost their center but they do have a healthy Tyron Smith, eke Elliott and Sean Lee and when all 3 of those guys play the Cowboys have been a much better team.

I hated the hire of Norv Turner as OC for the Panthers and wonder if that doesn’t lead to a slow start for the offense of the Panthers as Cam finds his way in the new system which on the surface doesn’t seem to be one that will highlight his strengths as QB.

Game 4: Chi +7 @ GB

I like the Bears in the night game but will wait to see where the line goes, I would like to get 7.5 if possible. Will post the number once I bet.

Got the 7 as saw line moving off the TD. Think Bears will be improved team on both sides of ball and should get a boost from Mack even if he doesn’t get on field much.

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