2016 Week 16 Christmas Picks

Christmas falls on a Sunday so we basically have games every day this week and makes the betting week a little different. Week 15 was our worst week of the year but looking at those games a lot of things went wrong in ways you would not normally expect. Continue to believe in the process.

Week 15: 1-4

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Game 1: NYG @ Phi +2.5

Game 2: SD @ Cle +6

Bet% SD 76 Cle 24%

*I bet this early in week at 6 and I see that most 6’s are gone though I would expect the line to go back up a little on Saturday morning when more public money comes in.

There is no statistical analysis that brings you to Cleveland as a good bet, this is simply the motivation of the team not to finish winless on one side and a team with no real motivation on the other. SD played their last meaningful game last week at home vs divisional and in state rival Oakland. As has been the case most of the year, they were in a position to win most of the game but coughed up late. The Chargers have been a good team all year struck with bad luck in injuries and close game losses. Still, outside of not wanting to be the 1 team that loses to Cleveland what is to gain here. Getting SD  travelling across country, playing in the cold in Cleveland after another tough loss to a rival team is the perfect scenario for the Browns to have a chance.

Game 3: Atlanta @ Carolina Over 51

Bet% Over 64 Under 36%

Atlanata is the best offense and the best over team in the league. On offense they are 1st in everything that matters, 1st in DVOA, 1st in Yards per att (8.9 which is a full yard more than 2nd place NE), 1st in passer rating and 1st in offensive points per game. The last 2 weeks they scored 42 and 41 without Julio Jones who is one of the 3 best WRs in football.

While the Panthers defense has been pretty good for the season, 10th in DVOA, even the top 2 defenses Seattle and Denver got scored on by Atlanta so I’m nt sure it matters. Oh yea i the 1st matchup Atlanta scored 48 vs the Panthers in week 4.

On the flip side the Panthers offense has shown they are still playing the last 2 weeks and this is the type of game that Cam Newton should have a lot of success in. The Falcons are 27th in defensive DVOA, 28th vs the run and we know the Panthers offense starts with the Jonathon Stewart and the run. Falcons are 29th in points against and I think the Panthers should be able to score at least 24 here at home.

Atlanta is 12-2 to the over and honestly I hate that I haven’t been on any of them so even though this may be late to the party, I like this game to be just another on the long line of 60 point Falcon games.

Game 4 Ten @ Jax +5.5

Bet% Ten 84 Jax 16

Nobody wants to bet the Jags this week, the bet % have all been Ten at over 80% yet the line is dropping at the sharp books. I think there are 2 reasons to like the Jags here, the first is the spot, Jags just blew a road game they should have easily won based on the first half and it ended up costing their head coach his job. You hear players on Jax talk this week about feeling responsible, especially QB Blake Bortles.

Meanwhile the Titans are coming off of their biggest win of the season, a huge come from behind win in KC and next week they have a showdown with division leading Houston at home.

The 2nd reason is this is a good matchup for the Jags. The one thing they do well on defense is play against the run, they are 12th in DVOA vs the run. We know the Titans offense is all about the run, they generally do not allow Mariotta to have the game in his hand. On the flip side the Jags can’t run and need to be able to pass, well the Titans are 23 vs the pass so there should be some opportunities there.

Game 5: Ind @ Oak -3.5

Bet% Ind 45% Oak 55%

I was against the Colts last week and hey absolutely routed the inept Minnesota Vikings, Luck was great and the Vikings made so many mistakes early that the Colts defense could play with a big lead against the Vikings who can;t run even with Peterson.

The Raiders are back in the drivers seat in the AFC West and playing at home they should be able to get their offense back on track vs the Colts defense which is 28th in DVOA. unlike the Vikings the Raiders have a balanced attack and now 3 weeks removed from his hand injury I expect Carr to have a much better game this week.  This week the Raiders bring.

With the Titans and Texans wins last week the Colts hopes of playoffs are mostly gone, it would take a minor miracle for them to leapfrog both those teams so if the Raiders can get ahead early we may see some letdown from the Colts.

Overall I just thin his is a great spot for Oakland, they had 2 tough divisional road games the last 2 weeks and now come home in 1st place with a defense they should be able to have a lot of success against.

Game 6: 2 Team teaser Ari @ Sea -1.5 & Bal @ Pit pk

Ari @ Sea

It would have been hard to believe in the beginning of the season that this line would be over a TD but thats where we are and even at the number I would lean Seattle. Arizona has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season and much of it has been because of their play on the road. In fact these are both teams with some of the largest home road splits overall. Arizona is 1-5 on the road and the one win was over the lowly 49ers. and their point differential in those road games is -48.  The Cards passing offense  home road splits are a major reason for their problems on the road, avg passer rating 91.1H 71.3A, Yards per pass att 7H 5.2A.

We know there are few home fields as strong as Seattle and they are especially tough on passing games. The Seattle defense is giving up just 5.5 yards per pass att at home and an avg passer rating against of 73. The Seattle offense is also much better at home averaging a passer rating of 101 at home vs 80.8 on road and 7.9 yards er pass at home vs 6.7 on the road. is much worse on the road. Seattle still needs to win to ensure the 2nd seed and home field in the divsional round, I think they win by double digits here.

Bal @ Pit

Notunlike the game above, we have a team win the Ravens that is much worse on the road than home paying ateam that is an elite one and very good at home. the Ravens are 2-4 on the road and their 2 wins came over the Browns and Jags. For most of the season the Ravens have been an elite run defsnse and while they are still tied for 1st at 3.5 yards oer rush, over the last 3 weeks they are giving up 4.1 and last week the Eagles really dominated them with the run.

The Steelers are playing as well as any team in the league, they have moved to #1 in weighted DVOA which weighs recent performances higher than early season. The addition of Ledarious Green as a recieving threat has opened the game up for their passing game and Levian Bell would be a MVP candidate had he not missed the first 3 weeks. A major key in this game will by Ravens corner Jimmy Smith. Smith missed last week and had not practiced this week. Nobody has had more success against Antonio Brown but even if he plays he will be well less than 100% and I expect Brown will take advantage.

 

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