For the second straight week, we finished 2-3 and for the second straight week a plinko finish at was the difference between a winning and losing week. This week the Ravens took the lead and were in a position to cover with 1:59 left when they took a 27-21 lead. Throw in the blowout in TB and the offensive explosion in the 1st half in Houston and this was a rough week.
Week 4: 2-3
What Went Right
- Cots 4th Q– I wrote the best case scenario for this game was the Jags starting early forcing the Colts to comeback and score late. That’s exactly what happened in this game, Jax lead 23-6 going into the 4th and the Colts scored 21 in the 4th trying to come back. I also said I liked the Jags side, wish I would have stuck with it
- Jacoby Brissett– This was the best case scenario. I bet this on Sat night and got +7 but mentioned I would still bet Bills +3.5 on Sunday morning. The Patriots just couldn’t get anything done on offense, they ran only 52 plays, went 1-12 on 3rd down and had the ball for only 23:49. This was a no doubter.
What Went Wrong:
- West to East teams: Both the Raiders and Broncos were playing their 2nd road games in a row and both were traveling across the country to the east coast, normally a great spot to bet against. Yet both teams were able to win and in the case of the Broncos, cover easily. The Ravens did look like they had the win and cover in hand late in the 4th but the Raiders put together a great final drive to score and get the win. Ravens outgained the Raiders 412-261 ran 26 more plays and held Oak to 3.3 yards per rush. Didn’t matter
- 1st half explosion: The Titans Texans total was the game I liked most and if you watched just the 2nd half it would seem that it played out perfectly. Unfortunately in the 1st half Hou led 17-14 which is just around what these teams averaged for full game scores in the first 3 weeks. Turnovers helped lead to a couple of the scores but it was just a really strange half where both teams scored 2 TDs each. Also strange was ho little pass rush the Texans got, just 1 sack, and only 7 combined sacks, QB hits and TFL. Something to watch going forward with no JJ Watt.
- 80-20 game fail: this was a good week for a few teams that were heavily bet on, Broncos, Steelers and Cowboys all had 80/20 betting splits through the week and cashed for the public. On the flip side the Lions and Panthers not only didn’t cover the spread as huge bet on teams but lost straight up.