After having 2 really good weeks in a row (12-2) I’m a little nervous this week because on one hand I know there is going to be some regression as it doesn’t seem possible to keep being on the right side this often and while I really like this week’s card, I am fading some of the best and most prolific teams in the league. One of the themes in this week is fading teams that have big games next week, hopefully we catch them looking ahead.
Game 1 Bal +3.5 @ NO
Bet% Bal 42 NO 58
This was the first game I bet after open, it opened at Bal +4 which I missed but did get in with the 3.5. So the Saints will be playing their 3rd straight game at home and I get the idea that it seems impossible that they could lose all 3 and that’s why everyone would be on the Saints but would you have thought they would lose both of the first 2? I don’t think so which is why I don’t think that alone can be reason to take Saints here or stay away from Ravens.
Baltimore’s season is pretty amazing, at 6-4 they are last in their division but have a +80 point differential, are the 3 DVOA team overall, #7 on defense and # 12 on overall, so by all these measures Baltimore come out looking like one of the best teams in the NFL. The Saints on the other hand at 4-6 have a point differential of 8 and are the 16th overall DVOA team, 30th on defense and 5th on offense. So it looks like we have the better team getting 3.5 on the road in this game, what about the spot?
Looking to rebound after the worst week of the season, I have 3 unders on the card this week, so here hoping the games ‘Get Low’……..Skeet Skeet.
Season ATS 31-23
Game 1: Car @ Phi-6.5
Bet%Car 36 Phi 64
For the 2nd week in a row I will be taking the square play in an Eagles game, this time on MNF. I should of bet this game at the open of -6 as there was only one way it was going, not sure if it will get to 7 by Monday but it wouldn’t surprise me.
The 3-1 Cowboys have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, led by the leagues #1 rushing attack at 165 yards per game, Dallas has quickly changed the perception of this team. That being said this might be a good spot to go against them. Dallas is coming off of a very big prime time win vs the Saints and next week plays the super bowl champ Seahawks, so this could be a let down game for them. Hou also brings a much better defense than any of the 3 teams that Dallas has beaten so far, the Texans are ranked 12 in Defensive DVOA while the Titans, Rams and Saints were ranked 20,30,32 respectively.
6.5 points seems like a lot in his game, while Dallas is at home there should be plenty of support for Houston in the Jerry dome which lessons the home field advantage. The Dallas defense while not the historically bad unit some expected is still playing very poorly giving up 6.5 yards per play and 7.4 yards per pass, both up from last year, so Houston should be able to move the ball this week.