Conference Championship 2021

LW: 0-2

2020- 60-55-1

Game 1: TB @ GB -0.5 (+114) 1st Quarter

I don’t have any bets on the full game sides or totals this week but still able to get a couple of bets in. The first is taking the Packers in the first quarter, I expect the Bucs to start slow in this game, one because that has been their history this season and two, because I think the cold will be something that bothers them to start the game. Tampa was shut out in the first quarter last week in New Orleans, and were down after 1 in 6 of their last 8 games and were shut out in Q1 in 5 of those games.

The Packers are team that does very well with their scripted plays and the fact that they struggled so much with this defense in their first meeting I think means they come out looking to be aggressive to start this game.

Game 2: TB @ GB Under 26 1st half.

This is taking on the same logic as the bet above that TB starts this game slow and because of it we have a low scoring 1st half. I mentioned above that TB has been a slow starter against good teams, I can see them trying to use Fournette a lot early in this game, it will be an adjustment for Brady to not have Brown who is one of his favorite targets on 3rd downs. The Packers too could come out with a run heavy offense in this game especially if they score first. I can see this game opening up in the second half especially if it plays out the way I am envisioning with GB scoring early and taking a lead into half, if that happens we have seen Brady have very big second half’s when needed.

Game 3: KC to win Superbowl (+225)

With Mahomes playing I was tempted to take the Chiefs ML but then I thought I am better off just taking them to win the SB at these odds as if they do win straight up this week I think that regardless of who win in NFC, Chiefs will be at least a small fav. Against the Packers I think that line will be 2.5-3 so something like -140- -155. There may be some hedging opportunities in SB especially of TB wins but either way I am happy to have a ticket on the Chiefs to win it all

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