Game 1: Det +3 @ Chi
Bet% Det 51% Chi 49%
It’s not often we have a team that has lost 5 in a row and a prime time blowout (41-25 SNF vs GB) be a 3 point favorite. The Lions are also coming off of there own national tv 41-25 loss so I am not making a case that they are some great team either. Where I see the advantage is we have the Lions coming off of extra rest and the firing of an extremely unpopular and unsuccessful coach vs the Bears who are coming off of a short week and then had their unpopular coach throw their team under the buss.
The Lions will once again be without Golliday and Swift but the Bears will probably be without Akeem Hicks and Allan Robinson was limited all week with a knee injury so I’m not too worried about the injury issues in Detroit. In the end I just don’t see many teams that you can make the Bears 3 point favorites over with Mitch Trubisky at QB and with the schedule advantage and boost of no Patricia, I think Lions have a good shot of winning straight up.
Game 2: Ind @ Hou Under 51
When the Will Fuller suspension news came out the question for me was what is the better bet the total or the side. I may still add the side but my bet was on the under here. For the Texans the loss of Fuller is huge for Watson, the splits with Fuller and without have always been an important factor in the success of the offense and if you look at the depth of the offense now you have Cooks as WR1, Coutee as WR2 and beyond that there is not much in terms of know quantities as they cut Kenny Stills and put Randall Cobb on IR. The TExans should get Dvid Johnson back which may mean more runs and more short passes. T
The Colts defense which is 8th in DVOA is coming off 2 of their worst games of the season vs the Packers and then Titans, will have a great situation in this game with Houston being so shorthanded and I fully expect them to bounce back. On offense the Colts have not been explosive in any way, 17th in offensive DVOA, they will be getting Jonathon Taylor back and we have seen a very RB focused offense for Rivers and especially after the last 2 weeks I can see them trying to slow the game down.
Game 3: LV -7.5 @ NYJ
Bet% LV 65% NYJ 35%
This just feels like the perfect bounce back stop for the Raiders. 2 weeks ago the Raiders played a great game on national TV vs the Chiefs and lost on the final drive. Last week the Raiders played a game where literally everything went wrong, I was on Atl last week because it seemed like such a down spot for LV but even as a Falcons better last week was way more than anyone could have expected. the Raiders turned it over 5 times, went 0-2 in the redzone and committed 11 penalties for 141 yards. It is hard for an above 500 team to play a worse game. Well if you want a get right spot the 0-11 Jets are it. By DVOA the Jets are 31 on offense, 27th on defense and 28th on special teams, they are basically at the bottom of the league in everything. Really the weeks the Jets have covered have been when the opposition was in a bad schedule spot but with the Raiders coming off of their worst game of the year, I don’t think that fits here which is why I love the Raiders and see them winning by double digits.
Game 4: 2 team 6 point Teaser LV -1.5 & NE +7.5
See above for the LV case but I was really hoping to tie the Raiders into a few teasers when his line was 8 or under but unfortunately on this card there just aren’t a lot of games that are available for the second leg. The move in this Patriots game from the Pats being favored to the Chargers allows for a nice 2nd leg. On paper there is no question that the Chargers are the more talented team and the team that should be favored but I can’t imagine a larger coaching mismatch than Belichick vs Anthony Lynn. There is no team that has mismanaged end of game situations more than the Chargers and even if the Chargers jump out ahead I like the chances of Belichick getting his team back into it late and staying within a TD.
Game 5: NE @ LAC Over 47
As you see above I expect a close game but I do think we are going to see a lot of offense. The Patriots are only 4-7 to the over but I think this game fits perfectly for a high scoring game. On defense the Patriots are 31st on defense and equally bad vs the pass and run (30th,28th) so he Chargers should be able to get whatever they want with their #12 offense. The big question for this over is going to be the NE offense vs the Chargers defense, the Patriots rank 21st overall, they are a lowly 27th passing offense but 4th best run offense and for the Chargers they are 31st vs the run. That is where I think New England will have a lot of success and if they can run well the rest of their offense should open up as well, I also think it will lead to efficiency in the endzone. I can see this game ending something like 27-24, 30-24 something like that but I see both teams being at least in the mid 20’s.
Game 6: LAR -2.5 @ Ari
Bet% LAR 52% Ari 48%
THis is a part of the the NFC West story where every team has a team they own, last week the Rams played the team that owns them in SF, Shanahan seems to have every answer to McVay’s offense. For McVay there is no team he is better against than the Cardinals, the Rams have won their last 6 games vs Arizona and have covered in every one of them. I love that we are getting the Rams off of their terrible performance last week against the 49ers because had they won that game this line would be 3.5.
On the field I think we can see how the Rams defense has great matchups vs the Cardinals, we have Ramsey vs Hopkins and inside we have Aaron Donald inside against a poor offensive line. The other thing that I think is an issue in this game is Murray seems to be hurt, there is a shoulder issue which has been much talked about but I think the impact has not been. With a shoulder injury I think we would look at deep passing or something like that but where we have seen the impact is in the running game. In the last 2 weeks, Murray has rushed just 5 times each game for a combined 46 yards, previous to these 2 games he only had 2 games this season of rushing under 46 yards. Love the Rams in this spot.
Game 7: NYG @ Sea Under 47
This may seem super square but we have the Giants either missing their starting Qb or having him play way below 100%, this is for a bottom 7 offense. The Giants have had totals go under 7 times this season with 3 games to the over not just because their offense is bad but because the defense has been playing very well most of the year. The Giants are giving up 23 ppg which ranks 9th and are 14th in yards per play given up and 15th in adjusted sack rate.
The Seahawks have been one of the best offenses in the league this year as they finally let Russ cook but it does seem like Russ has been cooking less and less the last few weeks. In the last 2 weeks Wilson has had his lowest number of attempted passes 28 and 31 and has not crossed 250 yards passing the last 3 weeks. With a healthy RB game with Carson and Hyde and a game that should not be a close contest this does feel like throwback Pete Carol game where they run on early downs and then ask Russ to be super efficient rather than trying to get into a shootout.
Game 8: 2 Team 6 point teaser LV -0.5 & Pit -1
Adding a 2nd teaser to LV, again the Raiders is probably my favorite side this week and I think the best teaser leg.
The WFT – Pit line has seen 1 way action on Washington from 9 all the way to 7, i can get with that move but I don’t think we will see them win straight up so I’ll take Steelers in a spot to just win. If I get 9nfo on other side, can hedge with WFT ML on Monday.
Game 9: Phi +9 @ GB
Late add: Betting the Eagles again because I am masochist that likes setting money on fire. Good luck