2019: 31- 34-1
Last week was pure disaster which ended with the Vikings loss on MNF but on the plus side New Edition was trending because of this phenomenal Seattle TD performance.
Game 1: SF +2.5 @ NO
Bet% SF 60% NO 40%
SF is playing in their 2nd straight road game but I like the fact that stayed out east for this game and that they are getting healthier for this matchup. SF will likely have Joe Staley and Dee Ford back, Matt Breida will definitely be back and Kittle and Sherman will play. For the Saints, they will be missing 2 LBs which is going to be a problem for a team like SF that dominates wit the run game and their TE. Saints also have injuries on their offensive line, their right side of the line is highly unlikely to play in this game as G Peat is already listed out and RT Armstead is highly questionable. While you can make the case that these are the 2 best teams in the NFC I think SF has had the much tougher schedule and therefore more impressive resume. The Saints haven’t played a team that currently has a winning record in the last 5 weeks and that team was the Bears, the last month they have feasted on the NFC south Bucs, Panthers and Falcons twice. This is this the best opponent the Saints have played while SF just went toe to toe with Baltimore last week.
Game 2: Mia +5.5 @ NYJ
Bet% Mia 63% NYJ 37%
This is probably the worst spot to take Miami after they win a game straight up as a double digit underdog and now playing on the road vs a team they already beat once but I just don’t see how the Jets can be favorites vs anyone by more than a FG. The Jets are 28th in DVOA, will be without Leveon Bell and expected to beat Miami by almost a TD. I was really impressed by Miami HC Brian Flores last week, he was ultra aggressive and creative not just going on 4th downs but using trick plays to get advantages. Miami is not a historically bad team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, they are a bad team but one capable of big plays in the pass game and when you look at the Jets defense they are 2nd vs the run but 21st vs the pass, Miami doesn’t even try to run so I like that matchup. This game probably comes down to Fitzpatrick turnovers, he is always capable of a 2 or 3 interception game a but in this game so is Darnold, If Fitzpatrick can limit those mistakes, Miami will have a shot to have their 2nd 2 game win streak of the season.
Game 3: Ten @ Oak +3
Bet% Ten 58% Oak 42%
This is one of those classic NFL spots where you have 2 teams separated by 1 game in the standings but because of the results of the last few weeks the feeling on the 2 teams is completely opposite. The Raiders should not be 3 point dogs at home to this Titan team and I think they win straight up. The Titans are winners of 3 in a row and 5 of the 6 games Ryan Tanehill has started, 3 of those wins were 1 score games and last week they needed 2 missed FGs and a FG block return for a TD. The Titans have been riding high in winning close games but there is definitely got fortunate bounces/breaks in 4 of those wins (Ind, TB, KC, LAC). Meanwhile the Raiders have been blown out 2 straight weeks, a road game to the Jets that was probably an expected schedule loss and then a blow out loss to the Chiefs in KC who was coming off the bye. The key in the last 2 weeks is that he Raiders were on the road, at home The Raiders have been a very good team, they have won 5 of 6 home games wit the only loss coming to KC.
Game 4: Den +9.5* @ Hou
Bet% Den 54% Hou 46%
*I have not bet this game and will wait closer to kick off to see if I can get +10 cheaply (-115 or under).
Houston is coming off of their most impressive win of the season and maybe their biggest win in the Deshawn Watson era last week vs the Patriots on SNF. Next week the Texans play the Titans who are 1 game back of Houston in the division. Not only is this is a schedule spot for a letdown I also think that even without that this line should not be more than a TD. Houston has 2 wins of more than a TD, 2 weeks ago against a good Colts defense they scored 20, the week before vs Baltimore they scored just 7. The Texans are 25th in DVOA on defense and I think the Broncos are going to have some success against them especially on the ground, if Denver can get to 17 points I can’t see Houston covering.
Game 5: Was +13* @ GB
Bet% Was 39% GB 61%
*Have not bet yet will wait to see if this gets close to 14 or if I can buy up to 14 at -120 but if not will play at 13,-13.5.
I was against the Packers as 6 point favs in NYG last week and they won by blowout yet here we are again. I just think playing a dog this large against a defense as bad as the Packers is bet you pretty much have to make. The season long numbers for Washington are predictably terrible but I do think that the return of Darius Guice to this offense has been a big deal and not surprisingly the last 2 weeks have been as good as this offense has looked all year. Last week vs the leagues worst run defense Washington put up 248 rushing yards at 8.3 yards per att. The Packers are the 28th rush defense by DVOA 28th , giving up 4.7 yards per attempt, if Washington can keep the game within a respectable distance and stay with the run, I think they will be to get some big runs, control the clock and as result keep the game within distance.
Game 6: Sea @ LAR pk
Bet% Sea 64% LAR 46%
I have been against Seattle the last 2 weeks and lost and here we are again. This game opened with Seattle as a favorite and despite 65% of bets on Seattle this line has moved to the Rams as a 1 pt fav in many books because this is the sharp play of the week, every book has been hit with big Rams money. The reason is simple, while Seattle is 10-2 none of their underlying numbers look as good as their record. Seattle is +36 in point differential which is 9th, the Rams at 7-5 are +33, Seattle is 16th in DVOA 13th on offense and 18th on defense. Where Seattle has excelled is in winning 1 score games, Seattle is 8-1 in games decided by 8 points or less which seems unsustainable. Last season Jarred Goff was a much better QB at home than the road, at home he had a passer rating of 112.3 on the road it was 80.2 this season hasn’t played out the same way but I do think that he is a much better QB playing at home or in ideal conditions like he gets at home. The Rams defense has been getting better and they are now #3 vs the run, we know that Seattle wants to run more than almost any other team so this is a big advantage for Rams. The other thing to like in this is that Mcvay and the Rams have had a lot of success vs the Carrol Seahawk defenses, earlier this year in Seattle the Rams scored 29 and were a Zeurline miss away from winning, In the previous 2 seasons, the Rams have scored 36, 33, 42 and 10, so in their last 4 games they have averages around 35 points vs Seattle. Seattle is due to lose a road game, Seattle is due to lose a close game, this game seems like the one they lose.
Game 7: Ind @ TB
Bet% Ind 49% TB 51%
I have not bet this game but my lean has been with the Colts. If this game gets to +3.5 then I think I will be on Indy here. TB has been a ATS machine the last month but the Colts still have hopes of winning their division and are coming off of a 14 point loss that was a tied game with 5 mins left when the Titans returned a blocked FG for a TD. Last week was also notable because the Colts were extremely shorthanded on offense, they had only 3 active WRs. This week not only do the Colts get Paris Campbell back at receiver the big return will be Marlon Mack at RB.