So this is going to sound crazy for a NFL betting blog, one that has made 97 bets this season but I do not have a bet on the side or total of the Superbowl. Superbowl is obviously the most bet game of the year, there are tonnes of people who don’t bet all year but bet on the Superbowl but I have looked at this game for 2 weeks and just don’t see a side I like. Crazy I know.
The main issue I have had is the Patriots defense and how good are they? They are the #1 scoring defense but finished regular season 16th in DVOA because they just didn’t play anyone. That was my logic last week with Steelers but they lost Bell and and the Patriots smothered the rest of the offense. So while it’s impossible to say they are top 5 defense because they haven;t played great offenses it’s also impossible to say they are’t because they can’t help their schedule. They stopped everyone on their schedule so maybe they are that good and they will be able to slow the Falcons down too. The Sharps seem to think they will as we have seen sharp action on the under all week.
I lean Atlanta and under but don’t love either enough to bet so instead I will look at live betting opportunities. I also like the 1st half under and may put a small bet on that but again no official plays.
I have played some props to keep the game interesting including Matt Ryan as MVP, at 3-1 I’m using it as a better Atlanta win bet than the ML. If the Falcons win I can;t see them doing it without Ryan being great, so because I think a Falcons win is highly correlated to a Ryan MVP I will take the the +315 over the +220 Falcons ML bet.