Week 12 was a massive card for us, the largest I can remember betting with 9 games bet over 3 days and originally I had KC on the card as well but pulled it Sat night when Dee Ford was ruled out. There is certainly a down side in betting so many games, namely you are paying vig on every game and that cuts down your winning and also just an overall increase in risk of losing a lot more but for this week it worked out. Ideally I would like to have 5 or 6 games a week that I really love but I have not reached the point yet where I can really pinpoint my strongest plays so I generally play all the games I like. All that being said we went +3 in week 12 and now a 3 week run where we have gone 15-6 has me feeling pretty pretty good.
Week 12 results: 6 Wins 3 Losses
Updated 2016 (through week 12) 43-26-2
What Went Right
- The Hook: For 80% of the games the number you get doesn’t really matter, pick the winner and they will cover as a fav or win straight up as a dog. But to have long term success you need to do better in those other 20% games and getting the best number you can makes a big difference. This week we won 3 games by getting the hook, Jax and SF lost by a TD but we had +7.5 and the Panthers lost by 3 but we had +4 a little more than just the hook but still same principle. Two of those teams had chances to win straight up, Panthers and Bills both led in the 2nd half but neither held on, not getting anything out of those would have been very tough and brought us to a .500 week if they all pushed at the key number.
- Betting against Osweiller- The Houston defense played a very good game holding the Chargers to just 302 total yards on 49 plays but their QB absolutely killed their chances to win. Osweiller had 3 interceptions, Houston last the TO battle 1-4 and while Rivers didn’t pass the ball all over the field he did pass for 3TDs. Houston has talent on defense, Clowney has looked great in the last month and certainly has talent at all of the skill positions yet their QB finds ways for them to lose.
- Ravens-Bengals Redzone: this is the game I felt best about going into Sunday and the 1st half had me a little worried. The Ravens scored a TD on their first drive and then had Justin Tucker kicking 50 yard FGs like it was going out of style. But the issues both these teams have with their lack of play makers really showed up in the redzone where they went a combined 2 for 8 and on 3rd down where they picked up only 10 of 32.
What Went Wrong
- Seattle offensive line: In my handicap of the Seattle offense I never took into accounts the issues they had going into the game last week on their offensive line. We know the Seahawks have one of the thinnest and least talented lines in the league so when they lose starters it’s extra damaging and in this game they were missing 2 starters including starting center Justin Britt. This was also just a down spot, after playing Patriots and Eagles, they had to fly across country and play Tampa knowing their playoff revenge game vs Carolina was the following week.
- Eagles pass rush gone quiet. The Eagles best unit, highest paid unit is their defensive line and through most of the year they have played like it. The last 2 weeks though that hasn’t been the case. Against GB they got no pressure, 0 sacks on Rodgers and just 5 total pressures. The offense was unable to get anything done vs the packers porous defense as unsurprisingly the Eagles WRs minus Jordan Mathews who was injure early in this game were a non factor. Benching Nelson Agholor probably didn’t help.
- Betting on Cleveland: Cleveland is now 2-10 ATS. There is no reason to keep betting them hoping this is the week. Until I see them actually cover a couple of games, no more Browns bets for me.