Back to back weeks of middling results and though this week felt very different on Sunday than last week the result was the same. Since week 1 I have basically been .500 and have just not been able to make any real progress and I think one of the reasons is that the results for the year have been kind of anomalous at least in one major way.
This comes from Gill Alexander @beatingthebook who week after week during the NFL season churns out 2 of my favorite betting podcasts and has been doing so for year. According to Gill’s numbers, through 7 weeks, the spread has mattered in only 8 games this season, meaning that in every other game the favorite has won and covered or the underdog won straight up. So of the 107 games played so far only 8 teams has a dog covered but not won straight up. Remarkable. I don’t think that this can continue at the 92% pace it is on so if we keep getting dogs with value we should see some plus weeks start to pop up again. We hope.
Week 7 Results: 3-3-1
Week 7 Boxscores
What Went Right
- San Diego Super Chargers– The Chargers are providing great value, the late game collapses have helped disguise how well this team has played all year and because of it week getting lines with some extra cushion. The Chargers were down by 17 at one point mostly due to self inflicted wounds and not only came back to cover but one straight up in OT. The vastly improved Chargers defense only gave up 3 points to the league’s best offense in the 2nd half and Phillip Rivers continues to be the underappreciated superstar in the NFL
- Brandon Graham and Eagles D Line: Poor Sam Bradford. I thought this was a great spot for the Eagles defensive line facing a very poor and banged up Vikings offensive line and boy did they make it count. The Eagles had 16 QB hits, 8 tackles for loss and 6 sacks which means 30 hits behind the line of scrimmage. Brandon Graham had 6 of those QB hits and added a Sack and TFL in an absolutely dominant game. I also talked about how the Vikings were leading every turnover stat and that couldn’t continue forever and we saw a major regression here in giveaways as they had 4.
- 6-6 Including OT: I have never felt smarter than I did watching the SNF game with Seattle and Arizona and having an Under 43.5 in my pocket. 2 of the best 3 defenses in the league and they looked every bit of it.
What Went Wrong
- Cleveland Browns QB #6– I felt really good about Browns +11 for most of the 1st half then they had their 5th starting QB Cody Kessler go down with a concussion and gave up a Hail Mary TD to AJ Green at the end of the half, making everyone on them feel really dumb. Oh those Brownies.
- Betting against the Patriots– if you would have told me Landry Jones would pass for 280 yards with 1TD/1Int I would have thought my chances of a cover would be pretty good. And they were. The Steelers had numerous chances to cover this game and probably should have won straight up but once again the Patriots prove why betting against them is a losing proposition.
- Det-Was 1st half: I had a teaser with the SD-ATL game and the 1st half of the Was-Det game was just an absolute killer. Both teams were able to move the ball pretty well but not get any points. Washington fumbled at Detroit’s 1, missed a FG and then fumbled again at the Detroit 35. What makes this result even harder to take is both teams ended up losing their top corners during the game as both Josh Norman and Darius Slay were injured.