The hot streak continued into week 5, with 4 teams on Bye’s and a smaller card I found fewer games in week 5 that I liked but the ones I did were all the right side and if not for a bad a number in the Ten/Buf game it would have been a perfect 4-0. As it was, 3-0-1 was pretty good consolation so I might take a little extra time to admire this one.
Week 5: 3-0-1
Season ATS 19-9-1
Week 5 Results
What Went Right
- The Chiefs had no business as a 10 point fav. Covering a number as large as 10 points is not easy for the best of teams and when this line was released it just made no sense to me how the 22nd ranked team by DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA could be favored by 10 over anyone The Chiefs sis lead by 14 at half-time like most mediocre teams they were not able to sustain that level of play for 16 minutes and not only allowed the Bears to cover but actually come back and win out right. The Bears who had played very tough teams in the first 3 weeks and were 0-3, won their 2nd straight against a team in the bottom 3rd of the league.
- Matt Ryan had his worst game of season– I thought that Washington had an advantage on the ground going into this game but as it turned out ATL dominated on the ground and it was their oass game that let them down. Atlantacame into the game averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt and Ryan had passed for 6 TDs and 2 Ints. In this game vs Wash, Ryan only averaged 5.4 yards per att and threw 2 Ints and 0 TDs.
- The Saints Defense was just what the Eagles needed- This is the game that I think went most to form for what I thought would happen pregame. The Eagles offense took advantage of the 32nd ranked defense with easily their best performance of the season.
What Went Wrong
- Not getting Best of Number– Like last week, I lost out on a winner because of a bad number. The Titans opened +2.5 and that numbr was around most of the week. I bet the game Saturday night and by then the number had dropped to 1 and instead of win the game turned out a push.
- Missed Opportunity- The last game I left off of my card was TB -2.5 vs the Jags. The reason I liked this game was that it was the 3rd straight road game for the Jags but beyond that I couldn’t find a lot else make me think this game was anything but a coin flip. The fact that they had lost the first 2 also worried me a little, thinking it would make them more desperate to get this winnable game. 3 straight road games are so rare, I really wish I had bet it and the next time I see this situation I will probably be on it.
What did I Learn
- Don’t Ignore ML on Large Dogs: I generally always put a small amount on the ML on all dogs I bet between 3 and 7. Under 3 I usually just take points and over 7 usually lay off as well.The Bears winning outright made me look back and basically every week we have had a team that was a 7pt or more dog win straight up. The Bears in Week 5, The Rams @ Ari in Week 4, NYJ @ Indy and TB @ NO in Week 2 were all dogs of 7-10 points and and all won outright. A small bet of 10-15% of a regular unit is probably well worth the risk in these cases as large dogs are live a lot more than we often think.