I can’t remember another week where the games played out closer to the way I capped them in my write ups more than this week. Sunday started with a perfect 4-0 morning and the next 2 games went almost exactly as I could have hoped for but the perfect day ended up being done in by Football Plinko, a 4th down play here, a hit upright there and the day ends 4-2. A winning weekend that could have been so much more. That being said, starting the season with 0 losing weekends in the first month and 7 games over is pretty fantastic and reason to celebrate.
Week 4: 4-2
Season ATS: 16-9
Week 4 Results
What Went Right:
- Almost Everything.: First off the Dolphins were as big a mess and this game was as much of a mismatch as the numbers indicated. This game was never in doubt, the Jets led 10-0 after 1Q and cruised the rest of the way. Miami fired an overwhelmed Joe Philbin after this game and named their TE coach and former NY Giant Dan Campbell as head coach. Campbell has never been a coordinator or head coach at any level, this should go super smooth.
- Betting against teams playing back to back road games continues be a winning proposition as 3 of 4 teams in that spot lost ATS including the Raiders and Eagles who I faded this week. The one exception was the Jags who I was on so that couldn’t have worked out better.
What Went Wrong:
Football Plinko: 1 or 2 bounces, 1 or 2 plays. Really that is all I can say went wrong this week.
In the Den-Min under I didn’t get a good number as it opened at 45 and I got the worst number of the week 42.5 and lost by 0.5. There were so many little plays in this game that could have ensured the total stay below 40 that all went against me here including a 4th and 1 play by Min that the Broncos sold out on and Peterson turned into a 48 yard TD run.
In the Dallas-NO game, we got the first classic bad beat of the season. Dallas scored a TD with 1:51 left to tie the game 20-20 meaning with 1:51 left the most plausible results left, either a NO win by FG or Dal by FG, would cash the ticket. The Saints ended up missing a 30 yard FG but then won the coin toss and had CJ Spiller turned wheel route into a 80 yard TD winning by 6. Brutal.
What did we Learn:
So far one of the biggest lessons has been the difficulty teams are having playing the second of back to back road games. Teams in that spot went 1-3 ATS in week 4 and are 3-10 ATS so far this season. This week we have our 1st team, the Jaguars, playing their 3rd straight road game, so it will be interesting how they perform in that situation.