Month: October 2014

Week 5 Picks

Game 1: Hou +6.5 @Dal

Bet% Hou 35% @ Dal 65%

The 3-1 Cowboys have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, led by the leagues #1 rushing attack at 165 yards per game, Dallas has quickly changed the perception of this team. That being said this might be a good spot to go against them. Dallas is coming off of a very big prime time win vs the Saints and next week plays the super bowl champ Seahawks, so this could be a let down game for them. Hou also brings a much better defense than any of the 3 teams that Dallas has beaten so far, the Texans are ranked 12 in Defensive DVOA while the Titans, Rams and Saints were ranked 20,30,32 respectively.

6.5 points seems like a lot in his game, while Dallas is at home there should be plenty of support for Houston in the Jerry dome which lessons the home field advantage. The Dallas defense while not the historically bad unit some expected is still playing very poorly giving up 6.5 yards per play and 7.4 yards per pass, both up from last year, so Houston should be able to move the ball this week.

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3-1 Eagles: Great Offense or Good Luck?

Better to be lucky than good? So far for the Eagles the answer has been yes

The Philadelphia Eagles have had a very interesting first 4 weeks of the season so far. The Eagles are 3-1 and depending on your line last week, either 3-1 or 2-2 ATS, while averaging 30.5 points per game, scoring 30, 30, 37 & 21 in the first 4. At first glance it appears the season is going the way last season went and the way many anticipated this season going. The defense is struggling again and forcing the team to win shootouts on the back of their offense but is that what has really happened? Below are the offensive numbers so far in 2014 compared to the 2013 number when the Eagles were one of the best offenses in the NFL.

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Week 4 Review

Week 4: 3-3 Season ATS 15-6

Game 1 Mia vs Oak +4 (In London)

Bet % Mia 60 Oak 40

Score: Mia 38- Oak 14

Bet Result: Loss

Note: Oak scored first and after that it was never close. In my write up, I discussed Oakland’s defense carrying the team so far but they were terrible in this game especially vs the pass where they gave up a ridiculous 9 yards per pass. The Oak offense which was already bad got worse after David Carr was injured and replaced by Matt McGloin who came in and threw 2 picks.

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