Month: November 2014

Wk9- Adding NYG +3

Game 7 Ind @ NYG+3

Bet% Ind 75 NYG 25

It’s been a tough week as I lost a couple of game I thought we were getting good value in but long term being on the right side of the value column should pay off.  So here we find some value on MNF in a game that isnt easy to bet.  I feel like I bet against the Colts every week and most of the season the result hasn’t been fun. Like last week nobody wants to bet the home team against the Colts, this line in the summer was NYG +2 while I think you can make the case that the Giants shouldn’t be favored the true line should probably be a pick or Indy-1. The line opened -3.5 but was bet down to the 3 even though most of the tickets have been on Indy.  Wish I was getting the 3.5 but will take the 3 with a home team coming off the bye that is capable of winning against anyone when they are on and hope being on the right side pays here.

Week 9 Picks

Game 2: Phi -2 @ Hou

Bet % Phi 72 Hou 38%

This is a game that most people i respect in the industry have been on the Texans and the Eagles pick is clearly a public play which is always a concern.  That being said I feel as a fan of the team I have pretty good insight on the Eagles and think there are some key returns from injury hat are not being properly accounted for.

The Eagles at 5-2 are #6 in DVOA but have not been very efficient on offense 24th in yards per pass at 6.4 and 15th in yards per rush at 4.2.  There have been 2 key reasons why they have been so inefficient, the first is injuries to the Offensive line. The Eagles have not had 1 game this year with all 5 starters playing and in fact only had 1 game the opener where 4 of the starters played, the opener in Jacksonville where LG Evan Mathis was hurt during the game.  This week in Houston, with the return of the star center Jason Kelce the Eagles will have 4 of their top 5 O linemen playing.  The Kelce return should greatly improve the Eagles run game as nobody on the Eagles line gets the 2nd level better.  The return of Darren Sproles should also help the run game as well as the special teams.

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