Week 16 Game 1
TNF: NYG @ Phi +2.5
Bet% NYG 78% Phi 22%
By record and perception these teams are in very different classes, the Giants are 10-4, winners of 8 of their last 9 and unless they lose both their remaining games they are going to the playoffs. The Eagles are 5-9, lost 7 of their last 8 and look to be easily the worst team in the NFC East. Here’s the thing, by DVOA these teams are 11th and 14th, by point differential the Giants are +22 the Eagles are +20 and in their first meeting which was a 28-23 win by the Giants at home, the Giants jumped ahead 14-0 on 2 terrible interceptions by Wentz but the Eagles outplayed them the final 4 quarters.
The analytics types love the Eagles, there were multiple tweets on Sunday after the failed 2pt conversion in Baltimore that the Eagles are the best 5-9 team ever which is some solace for us Eagles fan. Still, all that is to say theses teams are much closer in performance than their records indicate.
I like the Eagles in his spot because, first, the comeback last week showed this team still cares and is still playing for their rookie coach. Secondly it really is the final shot at having a big moment, at home on TNF vs a divisional rival and they are getting Lane Johnson and Darren Sproles back. Getting Johnson, their starting RT and I think their best most talented player on offense back is huge, they were 3-0 with him in the lineup, which is not to say they would have continued at that level but he does make a huge difference. That right side of the line with Johnson and Brooks should be able to really have success in this game and the Eagles have definitely missed Sproles in the passing game.
Beyond all the on the field analysis, we also have a reverse line move here, the line opened NYG -3 and is closing NYG -1 in sharp books despite Giants getting almost 80% of bets.
I like the Eagles to win straight up here.
Week 15 Review: 1 Win 4 Losses
Updated 2016: 49-35-3
Mama said there be days like this. Week 15 was a disaster. Jesus.
What Went Right
-The Jags…Kind of- In a week that became a disaster even the one win had some stink of fail on it. I bet this thinking with 2 QBs equally capable of giving a game away there was value in getting well over a FG and Osweiller did not disappoint, he left the game with 48 yds, 2 INT and a QBR of 3.3. The Jags led this 20-11 going into the 4th Q before letting Tom Savage comeback and beat them late. We should have got the ML cash here but our terrible QB Bortles was horrific averaging just 3.3 yards per pass att and allowed the Texans to stay around despite Osweiller.
What Went Wrong
-The Redzone: The toughest loss of the week was the teaser with the Lions and Dallas. Dallas covered their end though that was not easy either. Detroit had every opportunity to keep this in single digits but went 0-3 in RZ but not only did they not score TDs, they only got 1 FG in those 3 trips. 2 of the RZ trips ended with turnovers including a INT on their final drive, on 3rd down, down 11 where they clearly would have kicked the FG if that didn’t happen to make it a 1 score game and then try on-side kick.
Turnovers– In the Jets Miami game Jets lost the TO battle 4-1. The game at half was 13-10 but Miami scored 21 in the 3rd, the 1st score was on a Block Punt return for TD score, the 2nd came after a Jets INT. Matt Moore was very good in his 1st start in forever but the turnovers really ensured that Jets had no chance in 2nd half.
The Broncos were also undone by turnovers and even beyond that just dumb luck. The Broncos defense was great, they held Brady to 188 yds passing 0TDs and a passer rating of 68.2. Denver lost the turnover battle 0-3 but what’s worse is there were 5 fumbles in this game 3 by NE and 2 by Denver, the Patriots recovered all 5. That is insane. There is no skill in fumble recovery it is all random and as such teams recover around 50%. Just fucking ridiculous.
Betting on the Vikings– After the year I will go through my record on each team but I do know the Vikings will be one of the teams I am wrong on the most. This was a dreadful performance by their defense and I think I made too much of the Colts loss last week and it’s impact on their morale