Week 13 Review (3-2) + TNF Pick

Week 14 TNF- Game 1 Oak @ KC-3.5

Bet% Oak 54% KC 46%

There has been late money coming in to push this line to 3.5 from 3 and I am going to follow. I liked the Chiefs most of the week but never felt good enough to be until seeing this push. These are very even teams, by DVOA they are 6th and 8th but I think when  you look at the temperature being below zero,  the home field advantage for the Chiefs feels worth more than 3. Last week warm weather teams playing in winter conditions (Mia, SF, LA & Tex) all lost ATS and for Oakland you wonder how the cold will impact Carr’s injured hand.  Add to that Oakland lost starting LG Kelechi Osemele late today. I expect the Chiefs to run the ball and not stop running in this game, last week Bills averaged 7.1 yards per rush att, I expect Reid to use the run to control the clock and keep the Raiders offense on the sidelines. KC has beat the Raiders 3 straight SU including in Oak earlier this season.

Week 13 review: 3 Wins 2 Losses

2016 season: 46-28-2

week-13-results

What Went Right

  •         Eric F’n Berry–  The Chiefs just keep Chiefing. This game was pretty even by yards KC- 389 vs Atl 418 but the Falcons had 32 1st downs to 17 by the Chiefs and 6 of those were by penalties. KC had 128 yards in penalties which is not exactly a winning recipe but they also have Eric Berry. Berry had a pick 6 and an improbable game winning pick 2 where he intercepted a 2 pt conversion and returned for 2 giving the Chiefs the lead and ultimately the win.
  •         Steelers and Giants are who we thought they were: The Giants had won 6 straight against teams that had struggled offensively, while the Steelers seemed to be rounding into form. The score flattered NYG, Pit outgained them 389-234 and if it wasn’t for 115 yards in penalties the Steelers would have controlled this game even more.
  •         Seattle gets revenge: Seattle lost 2 games to the Panthers last season and after playing a terrible game in Tampa were primed for a big game here and boy did they deliver. This game was never in doubt and for Seattle fans and backers the best news has to be the emergence of Thomas Rawls in this game, Rawls rushed for 106 yards on just 15 carries with 2 Tds.

What Went Wrong

  •         Chargers 4th Quarters: 4th quarters have not been kind to San Diego, they have blown a bunch of games late and this was another one that slipped away. SD led 21-17 through 3, they missed a TD on a deep throw that was dropped and then Rivers through a terrible pick that ended the game. Give the Bucs credit, this has been some 3 weeks with wins over SD, Sea and KC especially when you look at the travel.
  •  The Eagles Defense: I said in the write up of this game that this game for me would be the tell on if the Eagles have been unlucky with matchups the last few weeks or is there a major problem with the pass rush. There is a major problem with the pass rush. Eagles had 0 sacks, 2 QB hurries and 3 TFL. That is miserable especially against a team that has struggled in pass protection and has no elite weapons at receiver. The Eagles corners just cannot hold up if the QB is not pressured and whether they have worn down or teams have figured them out, Eagles are getting no pressure. Andy Daulton had a passer rating of 130 and QBR of 97.5, the Bengals passing game got whatever they wanted
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